Windlab Limited (ASX:WND)
Roger Price, Chairman and CEO
November 2017: Investor Roadshow
For further information please contact: [email protected]
WINDLAB LIMITED 2
This document has been prepared solely for the purpose of providing potential investors with information about Windlab Limited (WND, Windlab, or the Company). The information contained in this document does not purport to contain all of the
information that a potential investor may need or desire. Potential investors should conduct their own investigation and analysis of WND and of the information contained in this document and should rely solely on their own judgement, review and
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Disclaimer
WINDLAB LIMITED 3
Australian based, international renewable energy development company
WindScapeTM provides distinct, technology based competitive advantage
Operate across the whole wind farm development value chain
Track record of project success, strong growth and profitability
Growing portfolio of operating interests and asset management revenues
About Windlab
Completed19 projects1093 MW
Total development
pipeline
50 projects>7,000 MW
Near term development
pipeline(permitted)
8 projects814 MW
Capacity under management 350 MW
FY2017(F)Revenue /
EBITDA
$23.2 m /$14.7 m
Note 1: Includes projects which have reached financial close and are either under construction or operating. Global Offices
Brisbane
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What we doApply science to develop, construct and operate better wind farms internationally
WIND FARM PROJECT LIFECYCLE
~3 – 7 Years ~1 – 2 Years 25+ Years
Costs: ~A$2 – 5Million/project ~A$2M/MW
WIND FARM VALUE CREATION
Development Returns Infrastructure Returns
5 to 10X IRRs 8% to 15%
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What we doWindlab is an integrated developer, owner and asset manager operating across the full wind farm life cycle
WIND FARM PROJECT LIFECYCLE
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What we doApply science to develop, construct and operate better wind farms internationally
WIND FARM PROJECT LIFECYCLE
Prospecting
Prospecting
Prospecting
FINDING THE COONOOER BRIDGE WIND FARM. A DIAGRAMMATICAL REPRESENTATION OF WINDSCAPETM IN ACTION
3Kms Resolution 1Km Resolution Looking closer!
100metre Resolution Land use overlay Virtual Wind Farm
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Revenue model
HOW DOES WINDLAB GENERATE REVENUE? DEVELOPMENT MARGIN EXTRACTION:
Development margins from the sale or part sale of projects at or near financial close
1
Success fees from previously sold or partnered projects. Success fees are typically received on completion of certain development milestones and / or when a project reaches financial close
2
Asset management fees for wind farm management of both Windlab developed and third party owned projects
3
Equity or other commercial interests in operating projects retained beyond financial close
4
Development margin
Target: $250,000 / MW, which
typically equates to 8% – 12% of
total capex
Received through a combination of
cash and carried interests
Windfarm capex
Wind turbines, including the cost of
transport to the site
Civil works
Site preparation
Concrete foundations for wind
turbines
On-site electrical works
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2017 Achievements
PRIOR TO IPOSINCE IPO
(IPO in August, raising A$50 million)
✓ Sold project rights on 3 projects in South Africa
✓ Commenced construction of Kiata Wind Farm in Victoria, Australia
✓ Entered option agreement for the sale of Greenwich Wind Farm in Ohio, USA
✓ Entered JV with Globeleq for development of Mozambique portfolio
✓ Financial Close of AGL’s Cooper’s Gap Wind Farm – the largest wind farm in Australia (453MW). Windlab has received a $10.3 million final milestone success payment
✓ Financial close for Kennedy Energy Park, Phase I
Development fee of A$5.4 million, which has been applied with part ofthe IPO proceeds to maintain Windlab’s 50% equity interest in theproject
Asset management fee of $600k during construction, and $900k p.a.during commercial operations under a 20 year agreement
Construction period of ~12 months (to commence imminently)
✓ Kiata construction complete – connected to grid and commissioning underway.
✓ Bolstered Australian development team
✓ Reaffirmed prospectus revenue forecast for CY17
✓ Added five early stage projects to Australian portfolio
✓ Identified and in process of securing 21 highly prospective and commercially competitive sites across South Africa and Sub Saharan Africa
MARKET OVERVIEW
WINDLAB LIMITED
Market Overview
Wind technologyWind turbine technology has advanced to enable larger turbines, taller hub heights, and bigger generators
Larger turbines and rotor diameters
Bigger generatorsTaller hub heights
Wind turbines make up the largest capex component of an onshore wind project. Continued advances in technology are driving increased capacity factors and lower costs
Source: International Energy Agency, “Technology Roadmap: Wind energy, 2013 edition”.
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Market Overview
Cost of energy generation
LCOE IN AUSTRALIA
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
LCOE is a measure of the average cost of producing electricity from a specific generating technology, representing the cost per MWh of building and operating a generating plant in order to provide reasonable return over an assumed financial life.
The cost of generating electricity from newly installed renewable energy generating capacity is now generally less than that produced by newly constructed traditional thermal alternatives such as coal generation
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Market Overview
Australia’s changing energy mix
CAPACITY BY REGION
AGE OF COAL GENERATION CAPACITY
Source: AEMO. Data is current at 19 May 2017.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
CURRENT MIX IN THE NEM FUTURE SOLUTION
The Australian energy market is projected to continue to transition away from fossil fuel generation towards renewable generation, particularly solar and wind
9,000MW of coal generation is expected to close over the course of thenext 15 years
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Market Overview
Africa
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
CURRENT SITUATION FORECAST RENEWABLES CAPACITY
SUB SAHARAN AFRICA (EXCLUDING SOUTH AFRICA)
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the most electricity poor region in the world
Windlab operates in or has identified pipeline projects in Tanzania, Mozambique,
Zambia, Ethiopia and Kenya
These countries are home to more than 300 million people
Increases in energy demand have severely outstripped capacity growth with millions
experiencing frequent black outs
Government support for immediate and substantial investment in electricity
generation projects to meet the fourfold increase in demand expected by 2040
SOUTH AFRICA
Coal currently supplies 77% of the country’s electricity generation1
Regular electricity shortages
National renewable energy target of 17,800 MW capacity by 2030
Rapid developments in the wind energy industry place South Africa among the
leading new wind markets globally due to the government’s Renewable Energy
Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP)
Economic downturn and subsequent reduced demand, coupled with political
interference has stalled the current procurement program. Management believes
fundamentals for renewables are strong with aging coal plant replacement and
demand growth
Africa is the most electricity poor region in the world. Rapid population and economic growth is driving demand for electricity, much of which is expected to be met by renewables
SSA (EXCLUDING SOUTH AFRICA)
SOUTH AFRICA
Note 1: Global Wind Energy Council, “Global Wind 2016 Report”.
PROJECTS
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Projects
Track record – completed and sold
NAME LOCATION CAPACITY TURBINES SITE
IDENTIFIED
OPERATIONAL DETAILS
OaklandsHill
Victoria, Australia
63 MW 32 2005 2012 Windlab completed the development in partnership initially with Investec, and later AGL.
Collgar Western Australia, Australia
206 MW 111 2006 2012 Project jointly developed with Investec, sold to UBS Infrastructure and REST Superannuation at financial close.
Amakhala Emoyeni (Phase 1)
Eastern Cape, South Africa
134 MW 56 2009 2016 In 2011, Windlab executed a sale agreement with Cennergi, a JV between Exxaro and India's Tata Power Company to acquire Phase 1 of the project on award of a PPA. The project received a 20 year PPA with South Africa's national utility Eskom
Bull Creek Alberta, Canada 29 MW 17 2007 2015 Windlab sold 100% of its interests in the project to BluEarth Renewables in December 2011
Cooper’s Gap
Queensland, Australia
453 MW 123 2007 Construction Windlab completed the development in partnership initially with Investec, and later AGL. The project reach financial close in 2017
OAKLANDS HILL COLLGAR AMAKHALA EMOYENI (PHASE 1) BULL CREEK
Windlab has developed and sold its interests in five projects which are either under construction or fully operational
COOPER’S GAP
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Projects
Track record – operating and under construction
COONOOER BRIDGE
OPERATING
Windlab has equity interests in projects under construction and in operation in Australia, with a royalty agreement over an operating project in South Africa
WEST COAST ONE
OPERATING
KIATA
COMMISSIONING Located near Bendigo, Victoria
19.8 MW capacity, 6 turbines
Consistently highest capacity factor wind farm in Australia
Innovative community engagement scheme. Open engagement, community ownership, rapid approval, and strong community support
20 year off take with ACT Government signed in February 2015
Financial close in April 2015. Full operations in April 2016, on-time and under budget
Equity: 3.5% Windlab; 3.5% Local Community; Balance Eurus Energy
20 year asset management agreement
Located 140 km north of Cape Town in the
Western Cape Province of South Africa
94 MW capacity, 47 turbines
Project sold to Investec, later taken up by
Moyeng Energy (a consortium consisting of
Engie, Investec, and Tiso Resources)
Financial close in June 2013
Commenced operations in June 2015
20 year offtake agreement with ESKOM.
RSA Government guarantee
Windlab holds a royalty agreement for 1%
of gross revenue; payable annually ~
$400K pa, escalating at South African CPI
Located near Horsham, Victoria
30MW capacity, 9 turbines
Largest turbines in Australia (126m rotor)
Community ownership and open
engagement
10 year Largescale Generation Certificate
contract with the Victorian Government
Rapid development - 3.5 years. Financial
close in November 2016. Construction
commenced March 2017. Full commercial
operations planned for Dec 2017
Equity: 25% Windlab, 2.7% local
community, balance John Laing Group
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Projects
Kennedy Energy Park Phase I
LocationHughenden, North Queensland, in land from Townsville. Part of Windlab’s Kennedy energy precinct
OwnershipDeveloped under a JV with the Eurus Energy Holdings Corporation - each own 50% equity interests in the project
Economics forWindlab
A$5.4 million development fee (received)
A$600k construction management fee
A$900k p.a. asset management fee during operations
Equity distributions
Type
Wind (43.2 MW)
Solar (15 MW)
Battery storage (2 MW / 4 MWh)
Features
12 Vestas V136 3.6MW turbines (hub height of 132m)
56,000 Jinko solar panels on a single axis tracking mount
Li Ion storage will be provided by Tesla
Funding
$18 million ARENA funding – zero coupon repayable grant
$93.5 million debt from The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (non-recourse to Windlab)
Timeline
Financial close: Achieved in October 2017
Construction: Imminent
Commercial operations: Q4 2018
Kennedy Energy Park is an innovative hybrid renewable energy project with world class solar and wind resources. It reached financial close in October 2017 with construction to begin immediately
GENERATION PROFILE
THE PROJECT ADDRESSES MANY OF FINKEL’S RECOMMENDATIONS
Source: Windlab; AEMO.
PROJECT SUMMARY
Increasing penetration of
renewables
Combining of complementary wind and solar
Storage for reliability,
frequency support and synthetic inertia
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Projects
Asset Management
EXISTING ASSET MANAGEMENT AGREEMENTS
PROJECT SIZE CONTRACT TERMS
Coonooer Bridge 20 MW 20 years, CPI indexed. Commenced in 2016
Ararat 240 MW 10 years, CPI indexed. Commenced in 2016
Kiata 30 MW Construction, plus 5 years, CPI indexed, with 5 year option
Kennedy Energy Park -
Phase 160 MW Construction, plus 20 years of commercial operations
Windlab provides wind farm management services for projects through construction and operations
During construction: stake holder and construction management via oversight of the Engineering and Procurement Contract
During operations: electricity market operations, contract management, performance management, on-going community engagement and back office services
Windlab expects to provide asset management services to most Windlab developed projects in Australia and South Africa
Windlab is actively pursuing asset management opportunities for third party renewable energy projects (like Ararat) in Australia
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Projects
Development pipeline summaryWindlab has a geographically diverse development portfolio of 50 projects at various stages of development which represent an estimated potential capacity of more than 7,000 MW
20182017
Kennedy Phase 1 Lakeland
SUMMARY OF DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
EXPECTED TIMING OF KEY DEVELOPMENTS
COUNTRY ACQUISITION VALIDATIONAPPROVALS AND
PERMITTING
OFFTAKE AND
FINANCINGTOTAL
Australia 5 4 3 1 13
North America - 2 1 2 5
South Africa 3 3 1 5 12
SSA (excluding South Africa)
18 1 1 - 20
Total 26 10 6 8 50
2019 2020
Kennedy Phase II
VerdigreIshwati
Emoyeni
Umsinde Emoyeni
GreenwichMsenge
Emoyeni
IzuduliEmoyeni
Cooper’s Gap ✓
✓
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-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Coal CCGT OCGT Gas other Solar* Wind Water Biomass
Ge
ne
rati
on
ca
pa
city
(M
W)
Existing less Announced Withdrawal Committed Proposed Withdrawn
9%
27%
26%
17%
21%
<15 Years 15 to 20 Years 20 to 30 Years 30 to 35 Years 35+ Years
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Projects
Why we are investing in QueenslandQueensland’s generation mix is currently dominated by ageing coal assets, with a large amount of solar generation proposed. Queensland has scarce, but high quality wind resources. Using the WindScapeTM technology we have identified, and are in the process of developing a number of projects
Longest network in the world; well suited for distributed generation;
Majority of electricity generation occurs in Central and South Queensland. Transporting energy
to North Queensland can be costly and inefficient
Queensland Government currently supports regional and rural Queenslanders through a
subsidy ($498.4 million in 2015-16)
High quality wind resource is scarce and valuable
Limited competition
Needed to balance solar
QUEENSLAND’S CURRENT GENERATION MIX AGE OF COAL GENERATION CAPACITY
OTHER KEY ISSUES
Source: AEMO* Excludes rooftop PV installations
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Projects
Why we are investing in Queensland (cont.)The Queensland Government has a 50% renewable energy target by 2030. The state has leading solar resources with a large amount of solar generation already being developed. Wind and solar generation are highly complementary and important to the future stability of Queensland’s energy grid
It is estimated that around 10 GW of renewable generation will need to be added to the Queensland generation fleet to meet the objective of 50% renewable energy by 2030 and more than half of this capacity is expected to be commercial and residential rooftop and utility scale solar
Government requirement for
renewables
Solar generation is very uniform; generating mainly from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Solar generation is expected to replace much of the conventional thermal generation in the market during the day and Management believes this will accelerate the exit from the market of some of the aged conventional generation
Solar is expected to accelerate the
redundancy of “base load” coal
Complementary nature of solar and wind
generation
Queensland wind energy profiles are biased towards the late afternoon, evening and night, complementing solar generation. Massive amounts of storage would be required to replace the retired thermal generation at night. Wind energy much more cost effective and will complement large anticipated amounts of solar generation. Wind generation will be vital to ensure a cost competitive and stable Queensland energy grid
Political environmentThe outcome of the upcoming Queensland election is unlikely to impact medium term demand for renewables, or the market competitiveness of Windlab’s identified wind resources
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What’s Next!
Lakeland
Location 65 KMs south-west of Cooktown, Queensland
Ownership Windlab – 100%
Type
Wind Energy (90 to 100 MW)
Attractive diurnal profile with competitive mid
40’s% Capacity Factor
Economics
Development Margin at financial close
Anticipate 20% – 30% carried equity interest
Long term asset management contract
Status
Project fully validated. Environmental studies
complete. Wind monitoring in place
Code assessable development application submitted
July 2017. Approval expected December 2017
Connection studies complete. Substation within
5KMS of project
Connection application submitted to Ergon. Offer to
connect expected December 2017
Commenced off-take and financing discussions
Financial close targeted mid 2018
Lakeland is a ~100MW wind energy development project in Far North Queensland. It was identified using WindScapeTM in early 2014 and is forecast to achieve financial close in mid 2018
PROJECT SUMMARY
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Kennedy Energy Park Phase II
Location80 kilometres north of Kennedy Energy Park Phase I
Ownership Windlab – 100%
Type
Land is large enough to support more than 1,200 MW of wind energy generation and additional solar generation and on-site storage
Status
Extensive wind and solar resource
monitoring and assessment complete
A number of environmental studies
complete
Indigenous land use agreement has been
finalised with the local Yirrandali people
Full development application expected to
be submitted to the State Government in
late 2017
In June 2017 the Queensland government unveiled plans to build a new transmission line in North Queensland to support the development of Kennedy Phase II and other renewable energy projects
POWERING NORTH QUEENSLAND PLAN
In June 2017 the Queensland Government unveiled its “Powering North
Queensland Plan”
Includes a proposal to build a new 500 kilometre transmission line in
the north of the state to unlock barriers to more than 2,000 MW of large
scale wind, solar and hydro projects, and create 5,000 jobs
The Queensland government announced the decision on the basis that it
is now cheaper to build new wind and solar than new coal plants
Windlab will be a major beneficiary of this government proposal as the
Company controls the 1,200 MW wind and solar park, Kennedy Phase II
PROJECT SUMMARY
Source: Queensland Government Department of Energy and Water Supply.
At 1,200 MW, Kennedy Energy Park Phase II is likely to be Australia’s largest wind farm project
FINANCIALS
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Financials
Historical and forecast profit and lossStrong historical and forecast revenue and EBITDA growth with a CAGR of 65% and 119% respectively between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2017, including a growing stream of annuity cashflows coming from asset ownership and management
5,137
9,099
17,082
23,232
1,395 2,029
9,923
14,654
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 (F)
A$
'00
0
Revenue Operating EBITDA
The revenue forecast for FY2017 includes:
$4.0 million already received in April
2017 in relation to the Moyeng
portfolio, and $0.3 million received in
May in relation Greenwich
$10.3 million already received in
September 2017 in relation to the third
and final milestone payment for
Coopers Gap
$5.0 million to be received as a result of
the financial close for Kennedy Energy
Park Phase I
$3.7 million in recurring revenue from
asset management contracts and
interests in operating wind farms
FY = fiscal year end 31 December.
WINDLAB LIMITED
Investment Thesis
Strong industry fundamentals
Management team with proven track record, extensive technical and commercial experience
WindScapeTM provides a distinct technological competitive advantage in wind farm site prospecting, design and optimisation resulting in less risk, higher certainty and repeatability
Extracting value from existing development pipeline
Diversified portfolio and project pipeline across multiple jurisdictions
History of strong profitability and growth, with earnings increasingly from recurring revenues (asset management and ownership / commercial interests in operating wind farms)
Large rapidly growing global market
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APPENDICES
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Projects
Development pipeline – late stage
NAME LOCATION CAPACITY2DEVELOPMENT
APPROVAL ORPERMIT
OWNERSHIP
BEYONDFINANCIAL CLOSE
ASSET
MANAGEMENT
Lakeland Queensland, Australia 100 MW Underway
Greenwich Ohio, USA 60 MW x x
Verdigre Nebraska, USA 230 MW3 x x
Msenge Emoyeni Western Cape, South Africa 140 MW
Ishwati Emoyeni Karoo region, South Africa 140 MW
Umsinde Emoyeni (Phase I & II) Karoo region, South Africa 280 MW
Iziduli Emoyeni Karoo region, South Africa 82 MW
Eight projects with a combined capacity of 814 MW1 hold a development approval or permit.Additionally, the Lakeland project in Queensland has an approval underway and is expected to reach financial close in FY2018
Notes 1. Eight of the projects (including both phases of Umsinde Emoyeni) with a combined approved capacity of 1,030 MW are shown above (also see notes 2 and 3). Another project which
Windlab previously developed and sold has approval to increase installed capacity by 32 MW. Windlab will receive an ongoing royalty payment in relation to this extension 2. Likely maximum installed capacity3. Verdigre has an approved capacity of 80 MW, however is likely to be upgraded to a maximum capacity of 230 MW as shown in the table above
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Financials
Profit and loss and balance sheet
SUMMARY PRO FORMA PROFIT AND LOSS
$’000 Pro Forma HistoricalPro Forma
Forecast
December year end FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
Revenue 5,137 9,099 17,082 23,232
Gross margin 4,604 5,113 13,642 20,031
Operating EBITDA 1,395 2,029 9,923 14,654
Impairment of projects (241) (490) (4,400) -
EBITDA after significant items 1,154 1,539 5,523 14,654
EBIT 748 1,185 5,244 14,354
PBT 654 1,185 4,861 14,290
NPAT 688 1,193 3,267 9,301
NPAT (before significant items) 929 1,683 7,667 9,301
BALANCE SHEET
$’000
As at 31 December 2016 Audited Pro Forma
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents 8,593 31,060
Trade and other receivables 1,040 1,040
Inventory 5,302 5,302
Other current assets 168 168
Total current assets 15,103 37,570
Non current assets
PPE 304 304
Investments 13,883 13,883
Inventory 5,103 5,422
Deferred tax asset – 761
Total non current assets 19,290 20,370
Total assets 34,393 57,940
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables 2,169 2,169
Provisions 904 904
Total current liabilities 3,073 3,073
Non current liabilities
Provisions 179 179
Borrowings 15,008 4,565
DTL 2,729 2,729
Total non current liabilities 17,916 7,437
Total liabilities 20,989 10,546
Net assets 13,404 47,394
Shareholders equity
Issued capital 19,016 54,440
Accumulated losses (7,485) (9,183)
Reserves 706 970
NCI 1,167 1,167
Total shareholder’s equity 13,404 47,394
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Management team
ROGER PRICE
EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN AND
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
30 years’ of executive, technology, sales and extensive investment experience across multiple
industries internationally
Roger has been Chairman of Windlab since 2007, and CEO since 2011
Previously Chief Executive Officer of Reino International
Currently a director of Audinate Group Limited and a Partner and Director of Innovation
Capital
ROB FISHER
CHIEF OPERATING AND
FINANCIAL OFFICER
Rob has been Windlab’s CFO for the past five years, and now leads the finance, technical, and
asset management functions
Chartered Accountant with 15 years experience in senior finance roles with fast growing
companies in Australia and internationally including Project Financial Controller with an ASX
listed property developer
DR NATHAN STEGGEL
CO-FOUNDER AND TECHNICAL
DIRECTOR, BSC. MSC. PHD.
Nathan has over 15 years of wind industry experience
Previously post-doctoral fellow at leasing research institutes in the UK (EnFlo) and Australia
(CSIRO’s Wind Energy Research Unit). Nathan was the lead developer of WindScape
DR KEITH AYOTTE
CO-FOUNDER AND CHIEF
SCIENTIST, BSC, MSC. PHD.
Over 30 years’ of experience in the fields of meteorology, wind flow in complex terrain, and
computational fluid dynamics
Previously employed at Environment Canada, NCAR and CSIRO, three of the world's most
prestigious institutes for atmospheric research
PETER VENN
MANAGING DIRECTOR, AFRICA
Peter has 15 years’ of technology sales and commercial management experience
Prior to joining Windlab he was in charge of SAS Institute’s energy sector in the Middle East,
Africa & Asia Pacific
WINDLAB LIMITED 31
Board
ROGER PRICE
EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN AND
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
See previous page
JOSEPH O’BRIEN
INDEPENDENT NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
20 years’ experience within the energy-supply industry, spanning electricity supply across
infrastructure and trading markets
Previously CEO of Hill Michael
Currently serves as the Executive Chairman of VisIR, a specialist private-equity investor
PIPPA DOWNES
INDEPENDENT NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Over 25 years of experience in global financial services organisations
Previously Managing Director and Equity Partner at Goldman Sachs in Australia
Currently serves on the boards of the Infotrack Group, Sydney Olympic Park Authority and
ALE Property Group
CHARLES MACEK
INDEPENDENT NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Over 15 years’ experience on the boards of companies in diverse industries
Previously on the boards of both Wesfarmers and Telstra
Currently the chair of the boards of Vivid Technology Limited, chair of the Remuneration and
HR Committee of Vicinity Ltd., consultant to the Investment Committee of Unisuper Ltd., and a
Senior Corporate Advisor to the MMC group
JOHN COOPER
INDEPENDENT NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Over 10 years’ experience on the boards of companies in both executive and non-executive
roles in the engineering, mining and construction industries
Previously CEO and managing director of CMPS&F and non-executive director of Murray &
Roberts International
Currently a member of the board of Aurizon Holdings and Sydney Motorway Corporation.
Formerly a non-executive director of UGL Group