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Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?
Paulo BarretoSenior Researcher at IMAZON
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15% deforested up to 2009
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Pastureland ocupies 75% of the area deforested
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Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation?
Predominant trends Critical uncertainties
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Scenarios
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What has driven deforestation?
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Policies to occupy the Amazon
InfrastructureColonization
projectsSubsidized rural
creditTax breaks
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Demand for agricultural commodities stimulated deforestation
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What has made Brazil more effective against deforestation?
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Reduction of leniency with crimes < 5% of the value of fines collected
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Drought in Amazon - 2005
www.panoramio.com/photos/original/4110363.jpg 280,000 people affected
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EE
~40% of Brazilian Emissions of Greenhouse gases
Less than 1% of GDP
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Market risk2006 – soy moratorium
Biofuels and indirect
deforestation
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New measures against deforestation in 2008
Illegal operations
Credit restriction
Embargo of areas illegally
deforested
Buyers of products from embargoed
areas liable to penalties
Increased confiscation
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Confiscation of 3,000 cattle inside protected area
June 2008
• Auctioned after two months
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Deforestation declined despite the increase of soy and cattle prices
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Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation?
Predominant trends
Growing demand for food
Demand for environmental
protectionSocioeconomic impacts of the application of
environmental laws
Pressure for economic growth.
Critical uncertainties
Reduction of legal forest protection?
Support for the implementation of
laws?
Size of the clandestine beef
market?
Scenarios
Low deforestation
Medium deforestation
High deforestation
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Low deforestation scenario
Low deforestation
No reduction of legal protection
Enforcement of environmental laws
Support for the implementation of
law
Beef industry demanding
deforestation-free cattleRanchers organize to overcome barriers to
the implementation of the law.
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Medium deforestation scenario
Medium deforestation.
No significant reduction of legal
protection
Enforcement of environmental laws
No support for the implementation of
law
Beef industry buys from legal
deforestation.Clandestine industry
buys from ilegal deforestation.Small landholders
free to deforest illegally.
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High deforestation scenario
High deforestation.
Reduction of legal protection
Enforcement of environmental laws
No support for the implementation of
law
Beef industry buys from legal
deforestation.Clandestine industry
buys from ilegal deforestation.Small landholders
free to deforest illegally.
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Low deforestation scenario
Low deforestation
No reduction of legal protection.
Enforcement of environmental laws
Support for the implementation of
law
Beef industry demanding
deforestation-free cattleRanchers organize to overcome barriers to
the implementation of the law.
REDD