28‐11‐2018
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Brian Vad [email protected] / @brianvad
Sustainable Energy Planning Research Group, Aalborg University
Heat Roadmap Europe - Democratizising knowledge bottom-up and top-down, Key findings and recommendations for decarbonising H&C Sector
European Commission , Decarb Heat High-Level Round Table on the Decarbonisation of the Heating Sector
Brussels, November 28, 2018
www.heatroadmap.eu / www.4dh.eu / www.reinvestproject.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU / @4DHresearch / @REInvestEU
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
What does the future bring for you?
• More or less district heating?• Net zero emission buildings?• Passive houses?• Gas‐electricity hybrid heat pumps?• What types of district heating are fit for the
future? • Should district heating decrease or increase?• Who should own and profit from heating and
district heating system?
28‐11‐2018
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Heat Roadmap Europe Methodology
Data profling and mapping Energy System analyses
District Heating Potential
District Heating Resources
Building Demand Savings Potential
Costs of Making Savings
BAU (References)
Heat Roadmap Europe Alternatives
Results (PES, CO2, Costs)
Energy System Potential
Energy System Resources
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Heat synergies map in PETA4 ‐ Netherlands
• Heat demands: 296 PJ/y
• Excess heat: 560 PJ/y
• District heating share: 6%
• Renewable energy in heating: 3%
• Not a Technical barrier to improve energy efficiency?
28‐11‐2018
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People)
Heat Demand Suitable for DH
10 PJ/Year
Excess Heat35 PJ/Year
WP2: Pan‐European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu
10 km
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Identifying the Balance Between Supply and Savings
• Savings, Residential. Services and Industry
• Supply curve includes• DH investment (heat
density)• Excess heat potential in
specific areas• Fuel and other heat
supply costs• Where DH not feasible:
• Heat pumps
28‐11‐2018
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Balance between savings and supply
• Reductions in demand do not affect the HP / DH balance and vice versa (DH more robust)
• Industry and service savingsgenerally feasible
• Residential savings differbetween countries
• DH feasible in all countries but different levels
France: total energy system
costs (M€/year)
Residential sector space heating savings (additional to a 30% reduction already in the Baseline)
0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Perc
enta
ge o
f m
arke
t sh
are
co
vere
d by
DH
0% 175532 175582 175266 175452 175883 175978 5% 175219 175263 174932 175104 175529 175608 11% 174875 174898 174548 174699 175099 175162 18% 174566 174570 174197 174329 174706 174752 26% 174327 174317 173922 174037 174394 174418
34% 174197 174168 173752 173852 174191 174200
42% 174190 174142 173709 173789 174107 174101 51% 174400 174334 173878 173940 174240 174216 59% 175121 175038 174562 174604 174885 174844 68% 176559 176454 175961 175986 176246 176185 79% 185911 185790 185275 185282 185524 185443
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Recommended development of thermal demands
-50%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Aust
ria
Belg
ium
Czec
h R
epub
lic
Finl
and
Fran
ce
Germ
any
Hung
ary
Italy
Neth
erla
nds
Pola
nd
Rom
ania
Spai
n
Swed
en
Unite
dKi
ngdo
m
HRE1
4
% c
hang
e in
del
iver
ed sp
ace
heat
ing
dem
ands
from
201
5
BL 2050 HRE 2050
• Current policy: 25% reduction in space heating
• HRE: 30% reduction in space heating
• Current policy: annual refurbishment rate between 0,7% and 1,0%
• HRE: annual refurbishment rate at 1,5% to 2%, AND deeper renovations when they occur
28‐11‐2018
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Heat pump & district heating shares of heat market
• Building HPs• Increase in share from 1% to about half of the heat market mainly in rural areas
• DH supply• Increase from 12% to cover the other half of the heat market mainlyin urban areas
• Individuel fuel boilers and electric heating for heating shouldbe limited as far as possible
• All natural gas boilers are phased out
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Minimum Recommended DH levels of the total heat market pr. country
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AT BE CZ DE ES FI FR HU IT NL PL RO SE UK HRE 14
% o
f hea
t dem
and
supp
lied
by D
H
ꓕꓔ Interval of feasible DH share in HRE 2050 Baseline 2015 Minimum recommended share of DH in HRE 2050
28‐11‐2018
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Renewable Energy vs. District Heating
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0% 20% 40% 60%Renewab
le Energy Sh
are in Heating & Coolin
g (%
)
District Heating Share (%)
Renewable Energy vs. District Heating
Austria Belgium
Bulgaria Croatia
Cyprus Czech Republic
Denmark Estonia
Finland France
Germany Greece
Hungary Ireland
Italy Latvia
Lithuania Luxembourg
Malta Netherlands
Poland Portugal
Romania Slovak Republic
Slovenia Spain
Sweden United Kingdom
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Energy system effects
• Energy Efficiency first – from two sides
• Use renewable energy capacity better
• Flexibility and storage
• Reducing pressure on the power sector compared to full electrification
• Much more in peak capacity than in grid
• Decarbonise the total system cheaper (70 €M/Year)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 2015 BL 2050 CD 2050 HRE 2050
CO2
emis
sion
s, M
tonn
es/y
ear
Total Other sectors Non-energy fuels Energy and industry
28‐11‐2018
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Total energy system costs
• Reduction of ~70 B€/year
• Increase in investment costs
• Job creation
• Reduced energy pricefluctuation
• Decrease in fuel costs
• Lower dependence on import of fossil fuels
• No Natural gas for heating
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
Conventionally decarbonized Heat Roadmap Europe
Annu
al C
ost B
reak
down
, bill
ion
EUR
2050
Annual investment CO2 Fuel Operation & Maintenance
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Energy StoragePump Hydro Storage
175 €/kWh (Source: Electricity Energy Storage Technology Options: A White Paper Primer on Applications, Costs, and Benefits. Electric Power Research
Institute, 2010)
Natural Gas Underground Storage0.05 €/kWh
(Source: Current State Of and Issues Concerning Underground Natural Gas Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 2004)
Oil Tank0.02 €/kWh
(Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil Storage Tank.
2013)
Thermal Storage1-4 €/kWh
(Source: Danish Technology Catalogue, 2012)
28‐11‐2018
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
Thermal Storage6200 m3 Thermal Storage
2500 €/MWh (Skagen: 6200 m3 for 5.4 mio. DKK)
0.16 m3 Thermal Storage300.000 €/MWh
(Private house: 160 literfor 15000 DKK)
200,000 m3 Thermal Storage500 €/MWh
(Vojens: 200,000 m3 for 30 mio. DKK)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3
Pri
ce (
€/M
Wh
)
Thermal storage: Price and Size
4 m3 Thermal Storage40,000 €/MWh
(Private outdoor: 4000 m3 for 50,000 DKK)
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No. 695989.
We have 28 regulatory experimentsin Europe to learn from!