Download - Warren M. Washington NCAR
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Warren M. Washington Warren M. Washington NCARNCAR
The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and Transition to a Climate and Transition to a Climate
Change Version of the Change Version of the Community Climate System Community Climate System
Model (CCSM)Model (CCSM)
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Climate Change SimulationsClimate Change Simulations
Present and future climate change and assessment simulations
Merged CSM and PCM model
Future research needs
Present and Future cooperation between NSF and DOE
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Partial List of Distributed InvolvementPartial List of Distributed InvolvementDOE and NSF Supported Project withDOE and NSF Supported Project with::
Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos Alamos National Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric Research Naval Postgraduate SchoolNaval Postgraduate School Oak Ridge National LaboratoryOak Ridge National Laboratory University of Texas, AustinUniversity of Texas, Austin Scripps Oceanographic InstituteScripps Oceanographic Institute DOE Program on Climate Diagnostics and IntercomparisonDOE Program on Climate Diagnostics and Intercomparison U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering LaboratoryU.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory National Energy Research Supercomputer CenterNational Energy Research Supercomputer Center Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory OthersOthers
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Contributions to the DOE Climate Contributions to the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP)Change Prediction Program (CCPP)
Develop climate modeling capability that takes advantage of new generation parallel architecture supercomputers
Build on the previous DOE CHAMMP modeling developments
Develop model components and coupled models that can be used for energy policy, IPCC, and future National Assessments
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HistoryHistoryCSM1 and PCM1 CSM1 and PCM1
Built for vector/parallel Computers system
Atmosphere: CCM3 Ocean component:
NCAR ocean model Sea ice dynamics of
Flato-Hibler dynamics and simplified thermodynamics
Built for distributed parallel Computer system
Atmosphere: CCM3 Ocean component: LANL
Parallel Ocean Program (POP)
Sea ice Model -Naval Postgraduate School model: viscous plastic dynamics; simplified thermodynamics
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Coupler Overview• Enables coupled model to be
constructed from independent components
• Controls execution of component models
• Computes interfacial fluxes
• Implements conservative mapping of fluxes of momentum, energy, and water between different grids
CouplerLand Ice
Atmos
Ocean
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Coupler: Design Goals• Support both sequential & distributed execution
• High-performance scalable parallel implementation of performance-sensitive regridding and communication operations
– Address parallelism and load balance issues
• Run-time rather than compile-time specification of processor allocations
• Support for stand alone execution
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Merging of CSM and PCM
Agreement to use the same model components
CSM, PCM, and DOE lab staff will develop a merged flux coupler b– ongoing SciDAC team of NCAR and DOE laboratory involvement
Full merger occurs when the CCSM is available for climate change simulations and the new flux coupler
NSF and DOE efforts may use different resolutions with DOE emphasis on high resolution studies for regional climate change studies
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Computational Design Question
Parallel Integration
Sequential Integration (stacked)
ATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE
COUPLERCOUPLER
ATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE
OCEANOCEAN
SEA ICESEA ICE
RIVER RIVER TRANSPORTTRANSPORT
LAND/LAND/VEGETATIONVEGETATION
RIVER RIVER TRANSPORTTRANSPORT COUPLERCOUPLER LAND/LAND/
VEGETATIONVEGETATIONSEA ICESEA ICEOCEANOCEAN
TIME
TIME
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Coupled System Processor Layout
PCM
CCSM2
Target?
CSM1
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10/24/2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Simulated Years per Wallclock Month
64pes
PCM Version 1 - NERSC Machines
T3D
T3E-600
T3E-900
IBM SP
WHI
IBM SP WHII
Sim
ula
ted
Years
Year
IBM SP NHII
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David Pierce Scripps Institution of Oceanography
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Examples of Climate Change Experiments
Greenhouse gases
Sulfate aerosols (direct effect)
Stratospheric ozone
Land surface changes
Volcanic forcing
Solar change forcing
Carbon soot aerosol (Indian-Asian region)
Various energy/emissions use strategies
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PCM Historical and Future Simulations
Use of CSM greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing
1870 control simulation
Historical 1870 to present
IPCC “Business as Usual” assumption
IPCC stabilization assumption
Ensemble of 10 for Historical, BAU/STAB ensemble 5
Solar variability simulation-ensemble of 4
Simulations to year 2200-ensemble BAU/STAB 3
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Both prominent in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)
Both represented in the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (Hamburg)
Both represented in the CLIVAR Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): CMIP1, CMIP2, CMIP2+
Access to CSM: via NCAR (CSM web page)
Access to PCM: runs archived at PCMDI (contact Mike Wehner: [email protected])
PCM and CSM Presence in the International PCM and CSM Presence in the International Climate Modeling CommunityClimate Modeling Community
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Interim Model: “PCM-CSM Transitional Model” (PCTM)
POP with GM and KPP (LANL, NCAR, NPS), R. Smith grid modifications (LANL)
C. Bitz sea ice multi-thickness(5) distribution thermodynamics and E. Hunke et al. elastic viscous plastic dynamics (U. of Washington, LANL, NCAR)
River Transport, Branstetter and Famiglietti (U. Of Texas, Austin, NCAR)
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Future Developments and Simulations
More simulations with Black Carbon distributions in PCM1 over entire globe
Higher resolution atmosphere -T85d simulations
Improved archival and cataloging of large data sets - EARTHGRID/DOE/
Simulations related to DOE mission on energy use impacts on the climate system - ACPI demonstration project
Work with statistical community on signal to noise
CCSM2 climate change simulations early next year
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Why T85?Why T85?
Improved regional simulation of climate change.
Possible improvement of the winds in the Arctic which influence strongly the sea ice distribution.
Improvement of orographic precipitation distributions.
Improved simulations of the ocean/sea ice close to coasts.
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I have a Dream!
Remember the famous
Martin Luther King Speech!
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AtmosphereModel
Working Group
Ocean ModelWorking Group
Land ModelWorking Group
Polar ClimateWorking Group
PaleoclimateWorking Group
Climate VariabilityWorking Group
BiogeochemistryWorking Group
Climate Changeand AssessmentWorking Group
SoftwareEngineering
Working Group
CCSM SSC
Organization ofCommunity Climate System Model
CCSMAdvisory Board
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Future Goals for CCSMFuture Goals for CCSM Improve Existing Climate Simulation
Expand System to Include:
- Biogeochemical Processes
- Atmospheric Chemical Processes
- Ice Sheet Dynamics
- … Expand Outreach and Visibility
Increase Computational Resources
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The End