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Stock Guide // 2019 Q1
With a new year just beginning, it’s a good time to review your investing
process. In this edition of the MarketSmith® Stock Guide, we’re starting
2019 by covering a smarter strategy you can use when buying stocks.
If you’re not pyramiding into your positions, you could be risking more
than necessary if a trade goes against you. Check out our main article to
find out how it works.
For our featured interview in December, we talked to bestselling author and
investing champion Mark Minervini. In addition to winning the U.S. Investing
Championship and being featured in the book Stock Market Wizards, Mark
is a longtime MarketSmith subscriber who has used the platform for years
to find new stocks. He shares some insights picked up during 30+ years of
investing, including how to leave emotions out of investing and trade like a
Wall Street veteran.
In the Coaches Corner, we interviewed Nikkolas Rosales, the newest
member of the MarketSmith coaching team. Nikkolas is an active trader
who watches the market from open to close, so he’s got quite a few insights
about investing. He also shared a custom screen he uses to find potential
new buys in MarketSmith.
As always, if you have any questions or comments about your investing
research or any MarketSmith features, please call one of our product
coaches at (800) 831-2525 or email us at [email protected]. We’re here to help you make more money in the market.
Best Returns,
The MarketSmith Team
2
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1
S & P 500 INDEXCLOSE 2506.85
2872.87
2801.90
2717.49
2791.47
2916.502940.91
2815.152800.182800.18
2532.692553.80
2594.62
2691.99
2603.54
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
2250
2350
2450
2550
2650
2750
2850
2950
3050
DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
500 M
850 M
1.4 B
2.5 B
2172392612281431173206228251127133016216219522
DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 2018
NASDAQ COMPOSITECLOSE 6635.28
7505.77
7637.27
7319.58
7806.60
7933.31
8133.30 8107.38
7486.517486.51
6630.67
6805.96
7419.56
7604.24
6922.83
6830.76
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
850 M
1.6 B
2.5 B
4 B
2172392612281431173206228251127133016216219522
DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 2018
S&P 500 Index
NASDAQ Composite
3
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on December 31, 2018.
Market Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
How to Build a Full Position . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
A Conversation with Mark Minervini . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
5-Month Trend Template* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Attunity Ltd (ATTU) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Acorn Intl Inc Ads (ATV) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
BioTelemetry Inc (BEAT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Caredx Inc (CDNA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Coaches Corner: Nikkolas Rosales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
High Growth Potential* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Cyberark Software Ltd (CYBR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Fortinet Inc (FTNT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Medical Properties Trust (MPW) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Servicenow Inc (NOW) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Nexstar Media Group Cl A (NXST) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Features Highlight: The New Markup Tool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Connect with Us . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Table of Contents
4
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1
You found a great stock. It’s on the verge of a proper buy point. All that’s
left to do is set an alert and buy your position, right? Not so fast.
The truth is, any stock trade can go against you. You may have reams of
research that point to one stock as the biggest thing since Amazon, but
any stock can fail to break out or trigger a sell signal after hitting your buy
point. That’s where scaling into a position can help.
This buying strategy is called pyramiding: building a full position in
installments as a stock increases in price. This strategy was developed
by the legendary investor Jesse Livermore as a way to reduce risk and
increase cumulative returns. So how does it work?
The concept behind pyramiding is called “averaging up,” and it’s a simple
concept that is often overlooked because it seems counterintuitive. After
all, why wait for a stock to become more expensive before buying more?
The thing is, pyramiding is totally intuitive: you reward stocks that prove they can go higher by buying more. You’re adding more on the way up
instead of adding on the way down toward a sell signal. As William O’Neil
wrote in How to Make Money in Stocks, “Why add more of your hard-
earned money to stocks that aren’t working?”
First, find the stock you want to buy. Wait for it to hit a proper buy point.
Figure out what your full position size is for this stock; in this example, let’s
say our full position size is $10,000.
Feature Article:
How to Build a Full Position
5
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1
Step 1: Buy a 50% position (in this example, $5,000) as close to the buy
point as possible, then wait. You want to make the stock prove itself by
increasing in price.
Step 2: When the stock goes up 2% to 2.5% from your initial purchase
price, buy 30% of your allotted position size (in this example, $3,000). Now
you’re at 80% of your full position.
Step 3: Finish building out your position by buying 20% of your full position (example: $2,000) when the stock rises an additional 2% to 2.5%
from your initial purchase price.
(continued)
Always calculate your initial position size by total monetary value, not by a set number of shares. Otherwise, your positions can vary wildly and put too much weight on a single position if its share price is much higher than others in your portfolio.
20% of target investment limit - Only have full positions on those names that are proving themselves.
30% of target investment limit - Only add to a position that is working.
50% of target investment limit - Pull the trigger as close to the pivot point as possible. You’ve already done your research.
6
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1
(conti nued) How Pyramiding Minimizes Risk
In this example, say the stock you bought dropped 8% and triggered your
stop loss. If you bought a full position at the buy point, you would have lost
$800 (8% of $10,000). By pyramiding into the position, your 50% initial
position size would only lead to a $400 loss. This strategy can literally
halve your losses on losing trades.
To recap, pyramiding is a buying strategy where you build a full position in
3 installments: 50%, 30%, then the fi nal 20%. If you buy as close to the buy
point as possible, you’ve built a full position within 5% of the pivot, before
the stock gets extended.
An Example of Pyramiding: OLLI broke out of a Flat base in August 2018. Here’s a chart showing how one of the MarketSmith Coaches would scale into the positi on.
7
Mark Minervini is one of America’s
most successful traders. A veteran
of Wall Street for 35 years, he’s the
bestselling author of several books,
including Think & Trade Like a Champion
and Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard.
He’s also a long-time MarketSmith
member and has used the platform
for years to find many of his winning
stocks. We recently spoke with Mark
about how he trades, what he avoids
and how he maintains his focus.
Q: How do you avoid making emotional trading decisions in the heat of battle?
The main thing is to have rules. That’s something that I heard Bill O’Neil say
a thousand times. Specific rules and criteria for buying and selling, that’s
the first thing you need. You’re going to be able to learn the correct criteria
if you pick up O’Neil’s book and if you pick up my book. If you read both of
those books, you’re going to get all the rules you need for buying, selling,
for everything. Instead of reading 40 or 50 books, it’s probably better to
read our books 20 times each and master an already proven strategy.
To avoid the emotions of trading, I avoid calling “audibles” or making
decisions on the fly during trading hours. Do your homework the night
before, when things are quiet. That’s when you run your MarketSmith
screens and make your list of buy candidates. Before the market open, I
already know the stocks I’m interested in and at what price I’m a buyer. I
also know precisely where I’m getting out of all my positions in the event
they move against me. All of these decisions are already determined before
I enter a trade.
A Conversation with Mark Minervini
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1
8
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1
Say a stock gaps up and runs away from your buy point. You stay away; you
don’t chase it. You’ve got your price range where you’re willing to buy. You
go in with a plan and you stick to it. Then you can determine how did things
work out and if you should adjust your plan.
But you’re doing all that outside market hours. When you’re in the market,
you’re focused on execution and position management—managing the
current stock positions and adhering to your stops.
Now, some people will say, “I’ve done all that, but I can’t sleep at night. I’m a
nervous wreck.” Well, then you’re probably trading too large. We call it the
“pillow factor.” Sell down to the sleeping point: a level where you can sleep
on the trade and not worry about holding it overnight.
In the beginning you might be a little more nervous and jumpier because
you’re not experienced at trading yet. So, you’re going to trade with a smaller
amount of money and smaller positions. As you get better and backlog some
profits, you can finance larger risk trades with those profits and be less
worried about the fluctuations.
Q: Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make. Can you think of a time in 2018 where you avoided a big loss by sitting out a potential trade?
In January 2018, I viewed Bitcoin essentially as a tulip bulb mania about to
unwind. I had people who had not contacted me in 20 years calling me daily
asking if they should buy, friends and relatives that never owned a stock in
their lives. It felt obvious to me that Bitcoin was due for a major correction.
My call at the time was for a 50-80% correction. I think it corrected 84%.
Fortunately, I stayed away.
I was buying Amazon in 1997, Netflix in 2010 and Apple in 2004, not in 2018. The FANGs are late-stage leaders at this point.
9
As for the FANG stocks, it was a similar story. Everyone I knew kept asking
me about them; it felt like it was 1999 all over again. It seemed like everyone
in the market was buying the FANG names like they would never stop
growing.
If you want to fi nd big stock market winners, you want to focus on fi nding
new leadership. You have to develop the discipline and have the courage
to look for names that are new that you may not have heard of. That’s
where the big potential is, not in “yester-years” leaders of the past that are
“crowded” and over-owned.
Q: You created 1-Month and 5-Month Trend Templates to fi nd new stock ideas in MarketSmith. How do you use these templates to fi nd new trading ideas as part of your research routi ne?
The 1-Month Template is sort of a “heads up” screen I developed, where
you’re able to see the early turn in a stock as it starts to transition into an
Pictured: Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC), an ETF that seeks to track the performance of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)
10
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1
uptrend. The 200-day moving average has only been trending for 1 month.
That gives some lead time if you start watching and see if it confirms and
ends up rolling over to the 5-Month Template. The other thing, too: high-
tight flags, your power play patterns, will sometimes run up very quickly
and they don’t give the 5-month template enough time to pick it up. So,
you can pick up a lot of high-tight flags in the 1-Month.
The 5-Month Template is my main qualifier. These are stocks that have
had their 200-day moving average trending up for at least 5 months. The
names that show up on this screen (the ones that have proved themselves
to be in a Stage 2 uptrend) are the ones I watch closely and consider
buying, but only if they emerge from a constructive base.
Q: You’ve seen a lot in your 30+ years of trading. How do you keep your edge and stay ahead of changing market environments?
I still wake up every day excited about trading. I’m doing the same things
now that I was doing 30 years ago: following my rules. The beauty of
trading is that it’s not purely a science; it’s art and science, and you can’t
just mathematically figure it out in a spreadsheet. That’s why you’re
always going to be on-edge with trading. It’s like a game of golf— you
always want a hole-in-one, but that’s not going to happen. The challenge of
getting better and better at it keeps you motivated.
One thing I’ve learned over my 35-year career is, nothing has changed
very much in the market. Most traders don’t fail because of a lack of good
information, but simply a lack of discipline. If you learn sound rules and
develop a plan, you have a great chance to do very well.
Mark recently co-hosted a MarketSmith webinar where he talked about his investing strategies with Portfolio Manager David Ryan; you can stream it any time at investors.com/wizards.
11
Mark’s screen for stocks in a Stage 2 Uptrend.
These stocks have 200-day moving averages trending up for at least 5 months. It’s a sign of strength that Mark considers heavily when searching for new buys.
5-Month Trend Template
COMPANY (SYMBOL) INDUSTRY GROUP RS RATING PAGE
Att unity Ltd (ATTU) Computer Sft wr-Database 99 12
Acorn Intl Inc Ads (ATV) Retail-Mail Order&Direct 99 12
BioTelemetry Inc (BEAT) Medical-Services 99 13
Caredx Inc (CDNA) Medical-Products 99 13
Visit MarketSmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on December 31, 2018. This screen can also be found on
marketsmith.com in shared screens.
Screen created by Mark Minervini
12
Attunity Ltd (ATTU)
Acorn Intl Inc Ads (ATV)
ATTUNITY LTD(ATTU) NASDAQ 21.3 SHRS / 16.9 FLT / AVG VOL 318202 $19.68(OH -17%)COMPUTER SFTWR-DATABASE attunity.com
ISRAELI DEVELOPER OF ENTERPRISE DATA INTEGRATION AND MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS AND RELATED SERVICES. 11/18 RAISED 2018 REVENUES GUIDANCE TO $83 MIL TO $85 MIL.
SHORT INT .6 DAYS -14%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.9EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 76PE 59 (3.5XS&P)5 YR PE 40 - 125
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING C
7.96 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 22.6%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.06
FUNDS 6%BANKSMGMT 21%ALPHA 0.49BETA 1.15
7.49 7.68
12.39
22.11
23.85
6.516.97
16.79
14.3599
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
5
10
15
20
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING(C)12$ 0.33 $ 9 213 0.12 11 414 0.10 12 515 0.09 16 816 -0.13 12 417 -0.10 9 518 0.46 EST ↑19 0.58 EST +26% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOAlteryx A AYX 99 50Mongodb A MDB 99 25TableaSftr DATA 97 95Workiva A WK 97 35Splunk SPLK 89 79
GROUP REL STR 92 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.01 VS 0.07 N/A18.3 VS 15.6 +17%N/A N/A
0.07 VS -0.02 #+450%18.2 VS 13.8 +32%N/A N/A
0.08 VS -0.12 #+167%19.8 VS 13.5 +47%N/A N/A
0.20 VS 0.04 +400%22.2 VS 16.5 +35%N/A 123X -- 77X
EPS DUE 2/1 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
2 K
26 K
ACORN INTL INC ADS(ATV) NYSE 2.7 SHRS / 1.3 FLT / AVG VOL 6274 $21.90(OH -34%)RETAIL-MAIL ORDER&DIRECT acorninternationalir.com
CHINESE PROVIDER OF CONSUMER PRODUCTS AND MARKETING SERVICESVIA TV INFOMERCIALS AND A NATIONWIDE 8/18 GEOFFREY G. WEIJI RESIGNED AS CFO, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
SHORT INT 1.1 DAYS -5%OPTIONS ON PHUP/DOWN 1.0EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 67PE 3 (0.2XS&P)5 YR PE 2 - 181
DEBT 0%NEW CEO 11/17TIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING B
0.73 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 7.4XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 8%CASH FLOW $1.61
FUNDS 0%BANKSMGMT 52%ALPHA 0.51BETA 0.63
10.82 11.16
14.56
19.85
26.70
33.60
28.8328.83
9.07 9.10
12.3213.50
17.0218.58 18.00
99
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
$DIS
196/100
0
10
20
30
PRICE SCALE
96COMPOSITE RATING(C)12$ -0.60 $ 16 713 -1.41 10 414 -1.62 10 415 -10.14∆ 10 016 0.91∆ 5 117 2.17 9 31819
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOOne800FlrA FLWS 90 32QurateRetl QRTEA 48 72QurateRetl QRTEB 37 61Evine Live EVLV 2 14
GROUP REL STR 71 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.01 VS -2.09∆ #+100%5.6 VS 6.1 -9%
N/A 125X -- 113X
0.01 VS 2.03 -100%5.4 VS 4.7 +16%
N/A 153X -- 4X
7.62∆ VS -0.71 #+11896.3 VS 4.5 +39%
$14.9 149X -- 4X
1.11 VS 0.84 +32%8.3 VS 6.0 +38%
N/A 181X -- 2X
EPS DUE 3/7 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
2 K
16 K
13
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1BioTelemetry Inc (BEAT)
Caredx Inc (CDNA)
* BIOTELEMETRY INC(BEAT) NASDAQ 33.3 SHRS / 30.3 FLT / AVG VOL 637850 $59.72(OH -20%)MEDICAL-SERVICES gobio.com
PROVIDES MEDICAL DEVICES, MONITORING SVCS AND CENTRALIZED CORE LABORATORY SERVICES FOR CLINICAL RESEARCH. 10/18 RAISED 2018 REVENUES GUIDANCE TO $397 MIL TO $400 MIL.
SHORT INT 4.4 DAYS -7%OPTIONS ON AM/NYUP/DOWN 1.2EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +119%EARNINGS STAB 49EPS RANK 99PE 35 (2.0XS&P)5 YR PE 20 - 240
DEBT 79%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST DSMR RATING A
7.35 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 54.6XR&D 3.9%RET ON EQUITY 16%CASH FLOW $1.7
FUNDS 54%BANKS 1%MGMT 8%ALPHA 0.34BETA 1.66
35.80 36.15
66.02
74.7374.73
28.90 30.00 29.85
55.60
47.30
98
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
20
30
40
50
60
70
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING(C)12$ -0.28 $ 3 113 0.06 11 214 0.10 11 615 0.46 16 716 0.85 24 817 0.97 39 2118 1.81 EST +87% ↑19 1.81 EST +0% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOCatasys CATS 98 8BioScrip BIOS 97 33Invitae NVTA 97 31GuardantHl GH 95 17NeoGenomic NEO 93 91
GROUP REL STR 72 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.32 VS 0.23 +39%91.7 VS 54.0 +70%N/A 42X -- 27X
0.39 VS 0.16 +144%94.5 VS 55.9 +69%N/A 42X -- 31X
0.46 VS 0.23 +100%101.4 VS 58.1 +74%
N/A 40X -- 28X
0.53 VS 0.24 +121%100.0 VS 81.0 +23%
N/A 47X -- 34X
EPS DUE 2/22 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
138 K
400 K
CAREDX INC(CDNA) NASDAQ 41.1 SHRS / 39.4 FLT / AVG VOL 715034 $25.14(OH -18%)MEDICAL-PRODUCTS caredx.com
DEVELOPS DIAGNOSTIC SURVEILLANCE PRODUCTS USED TO MONITOR ORGAN TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS FOR ACUTE CELLULAR REJECTION. 11/18 RAISED 2018 REVENUES GUIDANCE TO $74 MIL TO $75 MIL.
SHORT INT 3 DAYS +0%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.2EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 48PE5 YR PE 81 - 396
DEBTNEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST CSMR RATING D
-151.44 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 8.8XR&D 25.6%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.47
FUNDS 35%BANKS 0%MGMT 3%ALPHA 0.59BETA 1.34
16.00
29.6030.8030.80
4.92 5.07 5.51
10.31
21.30
99
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
PO
PPO
0
10
20
30
PRICE SCALE
91COMPOSITE RATING$10.00IPO 7/17/1412$ -0.48 $13 -0.3214 0.06 10 515 -1.05 8 316 -0.84 6 217 -0.69 7 018 -0.18 EST ↑19 0.16 EST ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOPro Dex In PDEX 99 65TandemDiab TNDM 99 46BovieMed APYX 99 42GenomicHlt GHDX 98 76Aethlon AEMD 98 39
GROUP REL STR 88 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.09 VS -0.13 N/A12.5 VS 10.9 +15%N/A N/A
-0.14 VS -0.31 N/A14.1 VS 11.6 +21%N/A N/A
-0.04 VS -0.17 N/A17.8 VS 12.1 +48%N/A N/A
-0.01 VS -0.15 N/A21.2 VS 12.2 +74%N/A N/A
EPS DUE 3/22 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
70 K
300 K
1.4 M
14
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1
Nikkolas Rosales is the newest
member of the MarketSmith
Coaching team. A tech
troubleshooting specialist,
Nikkolas joined Investor’s
Business Daily® 3 years ago. He
began using MarketSmith for
his stock research and noticed
right away that he was finding
stronger stocks and improving his
returns. Due to his encyclopedic
knowledge of MarketSmith and
his helpful, cheery demeanor, he
was recently named a MarketSmith Product Coach.
Stock Guide: How did you first get into investing?
Nikkolas Rosales: I really wasn’t that tuned in to the stock market until I
joined IBD® about 3 years ago. Learning about the CAN SLIM® rules and
how the market works, it really opened my eyes up to new possibilities.
SG: What’s your daily investing routine like?
NR: I use MarketSmith for 95% of my stock research. I run 5 custom
screens on a daily basis that piggyback off of MarketSmith stock ideas
from three lists: RS Line New High, Near Pivot and Breaking Out Today.
SG: What’s a recent trade that taught you something valuable?
NR: I was heavy into Apple (AAPL) in Q4. I had realized a lot of gains from
Apple earlier in the year, so it was probably something of a “pet stock” for
me, looking back on it. I should have sold it earlier and taken the profits,
but I had a lot of conviction in the company. It lost a lot of value and I took
a loss on that one. I learned not to put too many eggs in one basket.
Coaches Corner: Nikkolas Rosales
15
SG: You talk to people about investing every day. What’s the one question you get asked the most?
NR: Why don’t the stocks on MarketSmith’s lists follow all the CAN SLIM®
rules? We don’t preselect stocks based on CAN SLIM® on the platform; it’s
more of an agnostic set of tools for you to do stock research. It works for
every type of investor.
SG: Legal marijuana stocks have been huge this year. What’s your take on the industry?
NR: I think greed is going to hurt the industry. As the industry grows
following the larger trend of legalization, regulators are going to tax it to
the point where it puts a huge dent in profitability across the board.
SG: There’s an old investing saying, “Invest in what you know.” Is there a stock you bought because you knew the product and believed in it?
NR: For one of my biggest winners of 2018, I knew the product from going
to the store. American consumers will lead the market in certain directions
with their buying power, so I’ll keep an eye out when I’m shopping for
products that are consistently sold out.
When I’d go to stores like Target and Walmart, I’d see a big SodaStream
(SODA) display, and their products were sold out 90% of the time. I did my
research on the company, found the fundamentals to my liking, and bought
SODA stock in Q3 coming out of a base. I rode it to the top when they got
bought out by Pepsi (PEP). It was one of my most profitable trades of the year.
SG: You don’t just invest in the market; I hear you’ve got quite a sneaker collection. If your investing style were a sneaker, what would it be?
NR: It would be the Air Jordan 1 Bred. It came out in the 80s and it’s been
consistently popular ever since. Collectors pay between $550 and $1,000 for
a pair. It’s a prime example of timeless style. That’s like my investing—I look for
stocks with big growth potential early on and apply buying and selling rules
that work in any market. I avoid fads and concentrate on good fundamentals.
16
Find newer stocks with strong CAN SLIM®
characteristi cs.
These companies sport solid fundamentals and boast current quarterly earnings of at least 20%, as well as high EPS and RS Rati ngs.
COMPANY (SYMBOL) INDUSTRY GROUP CAMP RATING PAGE
Cyberark Soft ware Ltd (CYBR) Computer Sft wr-Security 99 17
Forti net Inc (FTNT) Computer Sft wr-Security 99 17
Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Medical-Research Eqp/Svc 99 18
Medical Properti es Trust (MPW) Finance-Property REIT 99 18
Servicenow Inc (NOW) Computer Sft wr-Enterprse 99 19
Nexstar Media Group Cl A (NXST) Media-Radio/TV 99 19
Visit MarketSmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on December 31, 2018. This screen can also be found on
marketsmith.com in shared screens.
High Growth Potenti al
Screen created by Nikkolas Rosales, MarketSmith Product Coach
17
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1Cyberark Software Ltd (CYBR)
Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
* CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD(CYBR) NASDAQ 35.0 SHRS / 21.7 FLT / AVG VOL 628158 $74.14(OH -11%)COMPUTER SFTWR-SECURITY cyberark.com
ISRAELI PROVIDER OF NETWORK SECURITY SOFTWARE FOCUSED ON PROTECTING PRIVILEGED ACCOUNTS
11/18 RAISED 2018 NON-GAAP EARNINGS GUIDANCE TO $1.75 TO $1.77 PER DIL SHARE ON REVENUES TO $328.9 MIL TO $330.4 MIL.
SHORT INT .6 DAYS +5%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.4EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +43%EARNINGS STAB 28EPS RANK 98PE 47 (2.8XS&P)5 YR PE 31 - 144
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST DSMR RATING A
6.91 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 16.2%RET ON EQUITY 13%CASH FLOW $1.27
FUNDS 34%BANKS 1%MGMT 38%ALPHA 0.26BETA 1.02
52.90
67.6569.97
81.24
84.21
79.16
40.63 41.55
48.60
61.6059.02
65.8564.66
97
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
30
40
50
60
70
80
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING$16.00IPO 9/24/1412$ 0.27 $13 0.2814 0.49 47 2215 1.00 76 3316 1.26 59 3117 1.16 55 3918 1.76 EST +52% ↑19 1.94 EST +10% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOSecurework SCWX 99 61Okta A OKTA 98 32Imperva IMPV 97 38Zix ZIXI 95 83Rapid7 RPD 94 36
GROUP REL STR 75 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.41 VS 0.41 0%80.4 VS 64.4 +25%N/A 42X -- 33X
0.32 VS 0.28 +14%71.8 VS 59.0 +22%N/A 46X -- 35X
0.36 VS 0.21 +71%77.7 VS 57.5 +35%N/A 57X -- 42X
0.48 VS 0.25 +92%84.7 VS 64.8 +31%N/A 60X -- 46X
EPS DUE 2/15 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
142 K
400 K
1.1 M
* FORTINET INC(FTNT) NASDAQ 170.4 SHRS / 139.7 FLT / AVG VOL 2.26MIL $70.43(OH -25%)COMPUTER SFTWR-SECURITY fortinet.com
DEVELOPS UNIFIED THREAT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS TO PROVIDE SECURITY AND NETWORKING FUNCTIONS
11/18 EXPECTS 2018 ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $1.72 TO $1.76 PER DILUTED SHARE ON REVENUES OF $1.785 BIL TO $1.795 BIL.
SHORT INT 3.4 DAYS +14%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 0.7EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +26%EARNINGS STAB 18EPS RANK 97PE 45 (2.7XS&P)5 YR PE 33 - 112
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST DSMR RATING A
19.53 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 16.2XR&D 14.1%RET ON EQUITY 26%CASH FLOW $1.39
FUNDS 34%BANKS 2%MGMT 18%ALPHA 0.22BETA 1.23
57.98
66.32
94.37
84.00
77.1877.18
43.48
51.9753.40
62.2764.65
92
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING(W)$6.25IPO 11/18/0912$ 0.53 $ 28 1713 0.49 25 1614 0.48 31 1815 0.51 50 2816 0.73 37 2317 1.04 45 2918 1.76 EST +69% ↑19 2.01 EST +14% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOSecurework SCWX 99 61Okta A OKTA 98 32CybArkSftw CYBR 97 98Imperva IMPV 97 38Zix ZIXI 95 83
GROUP REL STR 75 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.32 VS 0.30 +7%416.7 VS 362.8 +15%
N/A 45X -- 36X
0.33 VS 0.17 +94%399.0 VS 340.6 +17%
N/A 53X -- 43X
0.41 VS 0.27 +52%441.3 VS 363.5 +21%
N/A 56X -- 45X
0.49 VS 0.28 +75%453.9 VS 374.2 +21%
N/A 69X -- 47X
EPS DUE 2/6 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
800 K
2.5 M
8 M
18
Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)
Medical Properties Trust (MPW)
MEDPACE HOLDINGS INC(MEDP) NASDAQ 35.6 SHRS / 24.9 FLT / AVG VOL 722974 $52.93(OH -18%)MEDICAL-RESEARCH EQP/SVC medpace.com
PROVIDES OUTSOURCED CLINICAL DEVELOPMENT SERVICES TO BIOTECHNOLOGY, PHARMACEUTICAL/MEDICAL DEVICE INDUSTRIES 10/18 EXPECTS 2018 ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $2.76 TO $2.82 PER DILUTED SHARE.
SHORT INT 2.6 DAYS +32%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.4EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +18%EARNINGS STAB 12EPS RANK 96PE 24 (1.4XS&P)5 YR PE 15 - 33
DEBT 41%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
3.49 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 11%CASH FLOW $1.72
FUNDS 28%BANKS 0%MGMT 4%ALPHA 0.21BETA 1.31
39.63 39.29
45.94
63.9765.09 64.9464.94
31.7533.52
35.00
55.02
45.88
94
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
PSO
SO
SO
PSO
SO
PSO
20
30
40
50
60
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING$23.00IPO 8/11/1612$13 1.02 $14 0.8915 0.9916 1.36 38 2617 1.51 39 2118 2.51 EST +66% ↑19 2.89 EST +15% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOVeracyte VCYT 99 33NanoStrgTe NSTG 98 6Illumina ILMN 92 95Iqvia IQV 91 90ThermoFish TMO 89 81
GROUP REL STR 83 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.39 VS 0.35 +11%112.7 VS 108.2 +4%
N/A 27X -- 22X
0.55 VS 0.34 +62%163.1 VS 106.6 +53%
N/A 27X -- 21X
0.61 VS 0.38 +61%170.1 VS 106.2 +60%
N/A 27X -- 20X
0.67 VS 0.40 +68%179.3 VS 110.6 +62%
N/A 33X -- 24X
EPS DUE 2/26 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
82 K
300 K
1.1 M
* MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST(MPW) NYSE 364.9 SHRS / 361.3 FLT / AVG VOL 3.53MIL $16.08(OH -8%)FINANCE-PROPERTY REIT medicalpropertiestrust.com
REIT THAT ACQUIRES, DEVELOPS AND NET-LEASES HEALTHCARE FACILITIES ACROSS THE U.S. 11/18 EXPECTS 2019 NORMALIZED FFO OF $1.42 TO $1.46 PER DILUTED SHARE.
SHORT INT 6.4 DAYS +6%OPTIONS ON NY/PHUP/DOWN 1.2EX-DIV 12/12YIELD 6.2%
GROWTH RATE +30%EARNINGS STAB 41EPS RANK 96PE (0.7XS&P)5 YR PE 8 - 15
DEBT 128%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST CSMR RATING A
1.54 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 8%CASH FLOW $1.15
FUNDS 48%BANKS 1%MGMT 1%ALPHA 0.07BETA 0.59
13.40
14.52
15.24
17.5217.52
11.82
12.38 12.25
13.98
94
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
12
14
16
18
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING12$ 0.90 $ 11 813 0.98 17 1114 1.07∆ 14 1115 1.25∆ 15 1016 1.28 15 917 1.35∆ 14 1118 1.37 EST +1% ↓19 1.43 EST +4% ↑
FFO (DEC) HI LOClipperRea CLPR 97 50InnovatvIn IIPR 96 80AmericoldR COLD 96 76OmegaHlthc OHI 95 61NexPointRe NXRT 95 19
GROUP REL STR 69 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
FFO $REVENUE MI $DIVIDEND-PF
0.37 VS 0.31 +19%205.0 VS 153.3 +34%$0.24 11X -- 10X
0.36∆ VS 0.33∆ +9%205.1 VS 156.4 +31%$0.25 11X -- 9X
0.36 VS 0.32 +12%201.9 VS 166.8 +21%$0.25 10X -- 9X
0.35 VS 0.33 +6%197.0 VS 176.6 +12%$0.25 11X -- 10X
FFO DUE 2/8 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
1 M
2.5 M
19
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q1Servicenow Inc (NOW)
Nexstar Media Group Cl A (NXST)
* SERVICENOW INC(NOW) NYSE 179.3 SHRS / 175.7 FLT / AVG VOL 2.32MIL $178.05(OH -13%)COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE servicenow.com
DEVELOPS CLOUD-BASED IT SOFTWARE FOR WORKFLOW AUTOMATION, DATA CONSOLIDATION, BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION. 10/18 EXPECTS Q4 2018 REVENUES OF $660 MIL TO $665 MIL.
SHORT INT 5 DAYS +7%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.4EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +174%EARNINGS STAB 99EPS RANK 99PE 86 (5.1XS&P)5 YR PE 96 - 8345
DEBT 108%NEW CEO 4/17TIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
51.91 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 19.5%RET ON EQUITY 47%CASH FLOW $2.45
FUNDS 54%BANKS 1%MGMT 2%ALPHA 0.18BETA 1.49
176.56
182.59
188.59
194.81
206.29
194.04 192.16192.16
137.60
156.00 156.18
167.36
174.35
147.63 90
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING(C)$18.00IPO 6/29/1212$ -0.14 $ 41 2213 -0.07 58 2514 -0.07 71 4415 0.40 91 6216 0.70 89 4517 1.33 131 7318 2.36 EST +77% ↑19 3.13 EST +33% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOTwilioInc TWLO 99 76Sharpsprin SHSP 99 4RubiconPrj RUBI 98 5Everbridge EVBG 98 2Five9 FIVN 97 76
GROUP REL STR 84 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.35 VS 0.24 +46%546.4 VS 385.7 +42%
N/A 130X -- 98X
0.56 VS 0.31 +81%589.2 VS 428.8 +37%
N/A 140X -- 109X
0.49 VS 0.22 +123%631.1 VS 448.3 +41%
N/A 139X -- 103X
0.68 VS 0.38 +79%673.1 VS 492.4 +37%
N/A 129X -- 98X
EPS DUE 1/31 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
700 K
1.4 M
* NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP CL A(NXST) NASDAQ 45.6 SHRS / 42.4 FLT / AVG VOL 729874 $78.64(OH -12%)MEDIA-RADIO/TV nexstar.tv
OWNS AND OPERATES 170 TV STATIONS AND RELATED LOW POWER AND DIGITAL MULTICAST SIGNALS IN 100 MARKETS
12/18 TO ACQUIRE TRIBUNE MEDIA CO, A TELEVISION/DIGITAL PROPERTIES CO, FOR $46.50 PER SHARE OR $6.4 BIL IN A CASH.
SHORT INT 5.2 DAYS +3%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.1EX-DIV 11/15YIELD 1.9%
GROWTH RATE +69%EARNINGS STAB 80EPS RANK 99PE 13 (0.8XS&P)5 YR PE 14 - 413
DEBT 272%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST ESMR RATING A
2.29 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 18%CASH FLOW $10.58
FUNDS 48%BANKS 1%MGMT 6%ALPHA 0.06BETA 0.94
82.95
80.45
89.75
83.47 83.7584.97
89.6689.66
60.30
65.20
72.1570.09 70.51
91
QTR 4QTR 3
QTR 2
QTR 1
50
60
70
80
90
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING12$ 0.84∆ $ 12 613 -0.06∆ 56 1014 2.02∆ 56 3215 2.42∆ 61 4216 2.89∆ 67 3417 3.24∆ 80 5518 8.42 EST +160% ↓19 6.67 EST -21% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOTribuneMed TRCO 95 54ScrippsEWA SSP 93 45Discovery DISCB 87 76MSG Ntwrks MSGN 86 58HmsphrMed HMTV 76 19
GROUP REL STR 87 RS EPS
21723926122814311732062282511271330162162195DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
1.18∆ VS 0.64∆ +84%653.7 VS 309.9 +111%$0.30 30X -- 23X
1.01∆ VS 0.13∆ +677%615.3 VS 540.3 +14%$0.38 31X -- 20X
1.86∆ VS 0.91∆ +104%660.3 VS 626.1 +5%$0.38 21X -- 15X
2.12∆ VS 0.98∆ +116%693.0 VS 611.9 +13%$0.38 22X -- 15X
EPS DUE 2/27 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
300 K
700 K
1.6 M
20
At MarketSmith headquarters, our developers have been hard at work
improving the platf orm. We listened to our members and have been
incorporati ng new features as well as improving existi ng ones. One of the
most exciti ng improvements is now live: an enhanced chart markup tool.
Features Highlight: The New Markup Tool
The New Markup ToolAccess the markup tool by clicking or tapping on the wrench icon in the
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that appears, select “Markup Tool” and you’ll see a markup interface box
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can create lines, arcs, boxes and text annotations anywhere on the chart by
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21
Enhanced FeaturesThe new markup tool now includes the ability to go back and edit your
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Post-AnalysisPost-analysis is simpler and faster when you mark your past buy and sell
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trade. Here’s a tip from the MarketSmith Coaches: use the circle tool to
circle bullish signals in blue and sell signals in red; that way, you know what
to keep an eye out for in future trades.
22
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Copyright © 2019, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”). Reproduction of S&P US Index Data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by S&P’s sources, S&P or others, S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P GIVES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P or its affiliates be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of S&P US Index Data. (2012)
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