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Agile Estimating
User Story “As a buyer, I want to
have my shipping information confirmed
so I get a chance to correct any errors” Estimate = 8 Points
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Agenda
• 2 levels of es>ma>ng precision • What influences the size of a story? • Planning releases • Planning itera>ons • Exercises
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PRIORITIZED RELEASE BACKLOG
Size in Story Points
User Story A 8
User Story B 5
User Story C 2
User Story D 20
User Story E 40
ITERATION BACKLOG Size in Task Hours
User Story A, Task 1 6
User Story A, Task 2 4
User Story A, Task 3 6
User Story A, Task 4 2
Story Points and Velocity for Planning Releases
Task Hours and Capacity for Planning Itera>ons
2 Levels of EsEmaEng Precision
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<LINES.OF.CODE> <FUNCTION.POINTS> <DAYS.HOURS>
Agile Uses “Points” to EsEmate Story Size
TradiEonal Size EsEmates Are Absolute
Agile Size EsEmates Are RelaEve
1 Point
3 Points
8 Points
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Why is a Rela%ve Size Measure BePer? • Humans are good at comparing size, not very good at es>ma>ng absolute Can you tell the difference between a 1 and a 2? How about between a 33 and a 34?
• Rela>ve Size es>mates don’t change • Es>ma>ng is faster • Easier to reach accurate consensus on size • Basic math s>ll works 3 + 3 = 6
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ESTIMATE BY ANALOGY
“This story is like that story, so it’s estimate is what that story’s estimate was.”
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What influences the size of a story?
Complexity Effort Doubt
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Doubt
Complexity
Effort
Complexity
Effort
Doubt
Complexity Effort
Doubt User Story 1
User Story 2
User Story 3
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Doubt
Complexity Effort
Complexity
Effort
Doubt
Complexity Effort
Doubt
5
5 13 User Story 1
User Story 2
User Story 3
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Velocity vs. Capacity
Velocity is the long-‐term measure of the amount of story points completed per itera>on
Capacity is the amount of ideal hours available to work on a story’s tasks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
VISH JEFF MIKE LAKSHMI
Velocity is used to es>mate what we can finish by the release date
Capacity is used to es>mate what we can finish by the iteraEon deadline
Available Ho
urs for Itera>
on 4
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What does this look like in release planning?
PRIORITIZED RELEASE BACKLOG
Size in Story Points
User Story A 8 User Story B 5 User Story C 2 User Story D 20 User Story E 40
Story Points and Velocity for
Planning Releases
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Note: the business knows the most important stories will be delivered to aid planning release ac>vi>es
At our Slowest Velocity, We’ll Finish Here
At our Fastest Velocity, We’ll Finish Here
Will Have
Might Have
Won’t Have
Adapted from Mike Cohn
Highest Priority Stories On Top
Fixed Date Release Planning
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Total Story Points Desired 120
Fastest Velocity 24
Slowest Velocity 20
120 points ÷ 24 points/itera>on =
Adapted from Mike Cohn
Time & Cost EsEmate
120 points ÷ 20 points/itera>on =
Or, Fixed Scope Release Planning
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What does this look like in iteraEon planning?
ITERATION BACKLOG Size in Task Hours
User Story A, Task 1 6
User Story A, Task 2 4
User Story A, Task 3 6
User Story A, Task 4 2
Task Hours and Capacity for Planning
Iterations
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Task EsEmate Owner
Code the UI 6 Mike
Code the middle >er 8 Vish
Create and automate tests 4 Lakshmi
“CAN WE COMMIT TO THIS?” Ideal Hours Available in This Itera>on
Available Commihed
Story One…
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Task EsEmate Owner
Code the UI 8 Jeff
Code the middle >er
6 Mike
Create and automate
tests
3 Lakshmi
“CAN WE COMMIT TO THIS?”
Ideal Hours Available in This Itera>on
Available
Commihed
Story Nine…
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Next Steps
• Learn to es>mate Dura>on, Size and Velocity for Good Release & Itera>on Planning – Email email [email protected] for the Agile Es>ma>ng Exercises Guide
• Check out these other Agile Planning topics: – Release Planning – Itera>on Planning