Download - US Strategy 20-11-2014
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Daily Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
A fast-paced morning session today as we had Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data come in. French and German data missed on
their headlines with the German figure sparking mass weakness in the DAX and Estoxx. Although the DAX found support just
below S2, it has not pushed past the double resistance formed yesterday. In a correlated move we saw the Bund push higher to
extremities oftodaysrange, aiding T-Notes to move higher. We also had UK Retail Sales this morning coming in at 0.80% against
an expected 0.30%. This allowed Cable to make new highs for the session and this move has been sustained for the duration of
the morning. We had the FedsMinutes overnight, coming in with a mix of commentary. This included discussion of removing
considerable timefrom their Monetary Policy, a phrase which has elevated the Fedsdovish position since rates were cut to
historic lows. It should be noted that only one voting member voted against keeping this dovish language and the majority line
meant there was little effect in the markets. However the discussion of this should be noted as it becomes more important with
each US data point that exceeds analystsexpectations. The decision to remove Quantitative Easing from the Fedspolicy was
unanimous as data had improved considerably over the past year. The most interesting part of an otherwise boring set of minutes
comes from a section which implied that the Fed would soon provide a better picture of how they intend to raise rates, the pace ofthe hikes and their inception, which analysts believe to be around the middle of next year. ChinasManufacturing numbers also
entered the market lower than expected at 50.8. This is another decline from the highs in July at 51.7; the reaction in the market
was relatively subdued with no large moves worthy of mention. Both S&P 500 and EURUSD strategies were filled, the S&P during
yesterdaysafternoon session and the EURUSD achieved second target during the US afternoon trading session.
Todays View
For the afternoon ahead we have US inflation for October due at 1330. This is expected at 1.60% on the annual figure with a
previous number of 1.70%. Any numbers outside the range are likely to drive prices so please remain aware of the risks of trading
around this time. This move will also be affected by the Fedsmonetary policy stance and also last nightscommentary on lower
than target inflation just as bad as inflation above 2.0%. As usual we also have the weekly jobs report, expected at 284k. A furtherreading below the 300k handle on Initial Jobless claims will aid the dollar to strengthen as rate hike speculations are priced in. We
also have Manufacturing PMI due at 1445 with 56.3 as the expected month on month headline figure. Existing Home sales and
Philadelphia Fed are also due at 3pm, with 18.5 expected on the index and 5.15m on the housing numbers. The Existing HomeSales are arguably more important as housing are one of the Fedsindicators for gauging rate hikes so this will hold more weight.Do take into account all numbers however and trade accordingly. Please also be aware that as we move into the winter months
there is usually a rush to complete on mortgage exchanges so this could also come into play. It is therefore likely that the homesales numbers are likely to be higher in both December and January as these numbers look back, however we are bullish on this
number today. As equities have sold off nicely during the European session we are happy to maintain our bullish outlook atstronger levels. We are looking for dollar strength on the back of positive US data sets, especially housing. We are expecting
Tnotes to move inversely with equities and will be looking for a conservative entry short. Crude is likely to follow the trend lowerand again we are following the best technical entry with the direction here.
Alternative View
Misses on US data, especially housing and CPI this afternoon, are likely to invalidate the EURUSD strategy. Continueddevelopments from Fed Speakers should be carefully analysed in the wake ofyesterdaysFOMC minutes.
Key Headlines
US Strategy Report: 20th November 2014
Major Data Releases
Data Expected View
US CPI YoY 1.60% In-line/ higher
Initial Jobless Claims 284k In-l ine/ lower
Manufactur ing PMI 56.3 In- line/ h igher
Philadelphia Fed 18.5 In/line
Existing Home Sales 5.15m Higher
Market Sentiment: Neutral-Bullish
French and German Manufacturing PMI come in
lower than expected
China Manufacturing misses on headline
FOMC minutes broadly neutral with some hawkishundertones
Japanese Manufacturing misses on headline
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E-Mini S&P 500 (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014
25th
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS
INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER REGARDING PAST OR FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information
Key Levels Comments
2054.00 All Time High
2050.50 Ydays High
2045.00 Pivot
2043.75 High of 13th
2037.75 Ydays low
2032.25 S2
2026.75 S3, Double bottom 12th & 13th
2025.25 Low of 17th
Strategy Long
Entry 2026.75
1st Target 2035.75
2nd Target 2043.75
Stop 2025.25
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E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS
INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER REGARDING PAST OR FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information
Key Levels Comments
4248.75 14 year high
4236.00 Fed minutes high
4227.00 High of 13th
4223.00 Pivot
4204.25 Yday Low
4203.25 S1
4195.75 Low of 14th
4195.50 Double bottom 13th & 17th
Strategy Long
Entry 4195.75
1st Target 4223.00
2nd Target 4236.00
Stop 4191.50
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EURUSD (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014
25th
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS INCURRED IN
CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN BE SIGNIFICANT.
AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS WHATSOEVER REGARDING
PAST OR FUTURE PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR
EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information
Key Levels Comments
1.2605 Ydays high
1.2603 R1
1.2600 Handle resistance
1.2581 High of 17th
1.2573 Ydays morning high
1.2558 Pivot
1.2512 S1
1.2506 Todays low
Strategy Short
Entry 1.2573
1st Target 1.2548
2nd Target 1.2512
Stop 1.2581
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US 10yr T-Notes (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS
INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER REGARDING PAST OR FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information
Key Levels Comments
127.015 R3
127.000 16th High
126.280 R2
126.235 High of 18th
126.140 Pivot
126.085 17th Low
126.055 14th Low
Strategy Short
Entry 127.000
1st Target 126.235
2nd Target 126.140
Stop 127.015
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Nymex WTI Crude Oil (Jan15) Futures: 20th November 2014
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS
INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER REGARDING PAST OR FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information
Key Levels Comments
76.00 Handle Resistance
75.42 Ydays high
75.20 Pivot
75.00 Handle Resistance
74.56 Pivot
74.00 Handle Support
73.92 Ydays low
Strategy Short
Entry 75.20
1st Target 74.57
2nd Target 73.92
Stop 75.42
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