Demographic Shifts Toward CBD or “CBD Fringe” Living...
�Downsizing Boomers
�Former Homeowners Re-entering Mkt.
�Singles & Co-Housers
�Millennials
Housing Market Drivers in Next 10 Years?
•“M&M’s”• (Millennials and Minorities)
• Have Different Needs & Preferences!
• Boomers Thinking About EXIT-LEVEL Homes
• More People Thinking “SMALL”
ADVANTAGES to Infill Housing
COMMUNITY HOMEOWNER
CLEANER AIR (Reduced Traffic) WALKABLE/BIKEABLE/CHEAP
EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE MATURE NEIGHBORHOOD
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EASY SHOPPING/SERVICES
DIVERSITY INCOME/GENERATIONAL MIX
LOWER CRIME/DISINVESTMNT AGE IN PLACE / FMV GROWTH
LOWER HIWAY MAINTENANCE GREENBELT/PARKS NEARBY
IMPROVED URBAN VITALITY STAY PUT IF JOB CHANGES
HEALTHIER RESIDENTS OCCUPANCY COSTS REDUCED
BLENDS WITH EXISTING SCALE LOW-MAINTENANCE LOTS
BARRIERS to Workforce Infill Housing
HOMEBUILDER/DEVELOPERS HOMEOWNERS
NIMBY-ISM (aka Cultural Conservatism) RISING AREA HOME PRICES
LAND COST/GENTRIFICATION EMPLOYMENT UNCERTAINTY
ZONING NEEDS TO CATCH UP ACCESS TO MORTGAGE LOAN
TRAFFIC IMPACT (LOCAL/REGION) INITIAL PRICE FOR “INFILL”
PERMIT COSTS HI FOR “SMALL” STUDENT LOANS (30%>90 Days Due)
RESISTANCE TO HIGHER “PER-
FOOT” PRICES (TRADEOFFS)
INTEREST RATE UNCERTAINTY
& INADEQUATE DOWN PYMT
NO ID HOUSING LAND BANK “DRIVE TIL YOU QUALIFY”
COMPLEX LAND DEVELOPMT EXISTING HOME PRICES HIGH
APPRAISALS/COMPARABLES CASH-INVESTOR COMPETITION
IDAHO’S CHALLENGES Affecting Housing
• Lowest Average Wages in US
• Quality of Jobs/ Underemployment
• Rising Home Prices
• Rental Rates Increasing (No End in Sight)
• Inventory of “Affordable” Housing Low (<$200K)
• “Real” Unemployment Rate @ 9.8% (Including
Marginally Attached Workers & Involuntary Part-Timers) (April 2015)
• Limited Transit Alternatives
• Existing Housing Stock Unhealthy
• EtcH..
A Few Related Statistics…
• Area Median Income: 80% of AMI = Low Income
• 85% of HUD’s Budget Serves Only EXISTINGResidents.
• 50% of Healthcare Costs Serve Only 5% of PopulationH Where Do They Live? In INADEQUATE, UNHEALTHY HOUSING.
• Annual Cost to Commute: $290 PER MILE! (Not
Counting Your Valuable TIME!) Estimates VaryH
• US HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE DROP Last 9 Yrs
• MEDIAN INCOME DOWN - 25-44 Year Olds > 1/3 of US HH Live ABOVE THEIR MEANS Re: Housing Cost
Urban Sample: 9 Homes on 2/3 Acre“43 Blackwood”– 43RD & Adams
-Sizes from 600-1,200 Square Feet
-Energy Start “Certified” = Monthly Savings-Remote Parking Allows Nicer Common Area-Access to Greenbelt, Parks, River & Shops
Pocket Neighborhood: 12 Units/Acre–“40 Banyan”– 40th & Adams
-600-1,200 Square Feet 1-2 Story Designs
-Remote Parking Creates Nice Common Area
Pocket Neighborhood: 24 Lots on 2 Acres“36 Oak” – 36th Street Near Waterfront D
-Cottage, Detached, Attached & Live/Work TH
Other Infill Alternatives:“SKINNY” Homes: 14 Units Per Acre
- People Can Live Closer to What Matters- 1,450 Square Feet- 2-Car Garage- Done Properly, Can Enhance Existing Area
MY SENSE OF INFILL HOUSING’S FUTURE
• Commuting costs will play a larger role in selecting homes. Walkability, HERs, Health...
• More people are looking for compact, energy
efficient CBD and “Fringe” alternatives.
• “M&M”s will shape future market trends.
• Gentrification, NIMBYism and Displacement will continue to pose challenges for infill.
• Movement toward tiny and compact housing will continue.
• Education Key to Healthy Homeownership.
• Check out NeighborhoodHomes.Org