Understanding Oklahoma Voters
A Compilation of Studies Conducted Summer 2016
by
How Many Donate?
.05%.25%
1%
98.7%
Gave $2600+
Gave $200 - $2,600
Gave Anything
No Donation
Very few people engage in elections beyond voting. Only 1 in 100 give any amount. Only 25 out of a 10,000 give $200 or more and only 5 out of 10,000 gave $2,600 or more to a candidate.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
61%
42%
55% 50%
68%
45%
67%
47%
63%
42%
Turnout %
General Election Voter Turnout
We do not see a trend toward apathy among those who are registered – though their participation in gubernatorial reelects has decreased dramatically. What has changed – according to census data, in 2000, 72% of adult Oklahomans were registered to vote; by 2010 it had dropped to 60%.
6.51%5.13%
21.32%
20.21%
41.03%
Republican Runoff VotersVoted Primary / Not RunoffRegistered Republican Not VotingRegistered Other PartiesNot Registered
Composition of Senate District 22
Senate District 22
Senate District 22
Voter Turnout Percentage in Recent Elections
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2016 GOP Primary
2016 Pres. Primary
2014 General 2014 Rep. Primary
2012 General Election
2012 Pres. Primary
42%34%
39%42%
27%
40%
26%
42% 42%
30%
63%
33%
% of Voters Age 65+ Turnout Percentage
Turnout percentages are of “registered” voters, not those eligible to be voters.
24%
32%
37%
40%43%44%
46% 47%47%51% 50%
54%
48%
43% 40%
36%39%39% 39%
42%38%
34%33% 31%
28%
22%20%
22%
14%12% 11%
9%
11%
9%14%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-78 Jan-82 Jan-86 Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-14
Republican Democrat Independent
Voting Habits – Over Time
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
AllStronglySomewhat
Conservatives Since 1978
Media Habits
* Percentages may not add to 100% due to refusals and / or rounding.
33%
13%10%
11%
32% Multiple DailyDailyWeeklyRarelyNever
Social Media Usage
11
56%14%
5%
19%3%
Local TVNewspaperLocal RadioSocial MediaFriends & Family
Source of Local News
Donald Trump Favorable?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
All Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts
48%
57%
38%
66%
29%
48%43%
56%
43%34%
51%
23%
63%
44% 46%
32%
Favorable Unfavorable
12
Trump has rebounded a bit in Oklahoma and is now a net positive.
28% Strongly Favorable; 20% Somewhat Favorable;9% Somewhat Unfavorable; 34% Strongly Unfavorable;
9% Heard of, No Opinion
Hillary Clinton Favorable?
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
All Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts
27%20%
34%
5%
51%
25%32%
22%
67%74%
60%
92%
40%
70%60%
74%
Favorable Unfavorable
13
Clinton is as negative in the state as is Obama. She unites Republicans.
14% Strongly Favorable; 13% Somewhat Favorable;9% Somewhat Unfavorable; 58% Strongly Unfavorable;
6% Heard of, No Opinion
Presidential Ballot
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
All January Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts
52% 50%
63%
42%
74%
29%
49% 48%
69%
27% 31%22%
32%
5%
51%
26%33%
18%
Trump Clinton
52% Trump; 27% Clinton; 8% Gary Johnson; 13% UndecidedTrump largely unifies Republicans in the Sooner State and garners support from almost 3-in-10 Democrats. He does exceptionally well in the minor media markets.
Note, Trump only has a 48% favorable rating, but is getting 52% of the vote.
14
Presidential Ballot Test
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
All Favorable Both Unfavorable Both
Somewhat Unfavorable
Trump
Somewhat Unfavorable
Clinton
48%
61%
27%
41% 40%
28% 28%
7%
23%
8%
Trump Clinton
15
Fully 22% of voters have an unfavorable impression of both major candidates – Trump leads this group by a 4-to-1 margin, but most remain undecided. This group gives a 30-point advantage to a generic Republican and will likely break Trump’s way or stay home.
Note Trump wins among those who say they have a somewhat unfavorable opinion of him.
16
39%
30%
56%58%
62%
56%57%53%
46%
35%32%
43%
48%
43%
48%
60%
65%
48%48%48%
43%42%46%
49%47%
54%51%51%
48%46%
49%47%
42%42%
28%
23%
32%
55%
31%
24%20%
27%26%30%
35%
47%
57%
39%
28%
36%38%
24%
18%
33%35%
30%40%39%
33%34%38%
31%34%
32%
38%43%
36%39%40%
43%
59%
66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jul-9
3Se
p-94
Oct
-95
Jul-9
7O
ct-9
8N
ov-9
9Se
p-00
Jul-0
1M
ay-0
2D
ec-0
2A
ug-0
3A
pr-0
4Fe
b-05
Aug
-05
Nov
-05
Aug
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
8A
pr-0
9O
ct-0
9A
pr-1
1A
ug-1
1D
ec-1
3A
pr-1
2A
ug-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Sep-
13N
ov. -
13A
pr.-1
4N
ov.-1
4Ju
l-15
Aug
.-15
Oct
.-15
Feb.
-…M
ay-1
6
Right Track
Wrong Track
This study represents the highest wrong track number we have ever recorded –shattering any negativity we have seen in the last 25 years.
16
Direction of Oklahoma Over Time
Oklahoma Right Track?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA
Tulsa DMA
Minor DMA
23% 26% 21%31%
17%
31%
13%
22%
66% 62%70%
57%
76%
61%
75%
64%
Right Track Wrong Track
23% Right Track; 66% Wrong Track; 11% Undecided
17
These are the worst numbers we have seen. Democrats have been solidly negative for quite some time – much of the recent negative movement is among Republicans and those in Tulsa.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
July 09
Jan. 10
April 11
Aug. 11
Dec. 11
April 12
Aug. 12
Oct. 12
Jan. 13
April 13
Sept. 13
Nov. 13
Apr. 14
Jul. 14
Jul-15
Aug-15
Nov. 15
Feb. 16
May. 16
Jul-16
52%56% 61%
64%61% 64%65% 66% 63% 62%58%55%
52%50%53%54%52%
40%44%41%
13%20%17%
23%21%21% 22% 19%22%
28%31%32%40%42%
39%39% 39%
44%48%48%
Favorable Unfavorable
18
Fallin Favorable Over Time
Mary Fallin Favorable
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
All Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts
41%47%
35%
63%
21%
40%40% 45%
48%42%
54%
28%
69%
48% 50%45%
Favorable Unfavorable
19% Strongly Favorable; 22% Somewhat Favorable; 14% Somewhat Unfavorable; 34% Strongly Unfavorable;
10% Heard of, No opinion; 1% Never Heard of
Fallin’s numbers are no longer positive. She now has a significant partisan edge.
19
Mary Fallin Favorable?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
All Under 45 45 to 64 Over 65 Under $50k
$50k-$100k
Over $100k
41%
29%
38%
57%
42% 40% 42%48%
59%
50%
33%
43%51% 51%
Favorable Unfavorable
20
Fallin continues to have real strength among senior citizens.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
36% 37%37%
43%33%
32%
31%
45%43%
48% 48% 51%47%
32% 34%
38%
39%
33%
33%
30% 25%23%
27%
33%
29%34%
Republican Democrat
Generic Legislative Ballot Test Over Time
The poor outlook on the direction of the state is taking a bit of a toll on Republican legislative candidates –but they still have a 13-point advantage. As the presidential campaign continues, expect this number to widen (When this was asked, Trump had only a 20-point lead over Clinton.) This Republican lead is down from 16 points in January.
State Legislator Generic Ballot?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA
Tulsa DMA
Minor DMA
47%54%
40%
79%
18%
47% 45% 49%
34% 32%37%
6%
63%
35% 36%28%
Republican Democrat
47% Republican; 34% Democrat; 19% Undecided
22
Despite the wrong track numbers and dissatisfaction we see among Republicans, they are still more united than are Democrats.
We do see a substantial gender difference.
Issue Cluster – State Legislature?
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
All Men Women Republican Democrat
26% 32% 21% 28% 25%
12%13%
12%15%
8%
7%7%
6%3%
10%
33% 24% 41% 23%41%
15% 19% 12% 25%7%
Economic Moral Public Safety Societal Liberty
26% Economic Issues; 12% Moral Issues; 7% Public Safety Issues; 33% Societal Issues; 15% Liberty Issues; 7% Undecided
23
Health and Education issues are followed by economic concerns as the areas currently garnering the most interest. We have seen a slight decrease in liberty and moral issue voters in recent years. Substantial gender and partisan differences exist.
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
All Men Women Republican Democrat Voted Rep. Primary
Voted Dem. Primary
39% 39% 39% 42%36%
44%
36%
10%9% 10%
3%
14%
3%
17%
45% 45% 45%50%
41%
48%
39%
Too High Too Low About Right
Oklahoma Sales Tax Rate?
24
We are starting to see these numbers increase a bit – but they are still very low in an historical perspective. Generally, when the “too high” is below 40% we see almost any effort for increase is successful. We see tax issues that hit a perceived need of the voters succeed when the too high starts as high as 50%.
39% Too High; 10% Too Low; 45% About Right; 6% Undecided
Tax Raise for Teacher Raises? (Not Boren Proposal)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
All Men Women RepublicansDemocrats Minor Mkts. OKC Tulsa
62% 60% 63%58%
66% 65% 64%58%
31% 34%28%
34%28%
25%31%
34%
Favor Oppose
42% Strongly Favor; 20% Somewhat Favor; 9% Somewhat Oppose; 22% Strongly Oppose; 7%Undecided
Consistent with other studies, by a two-to-one margin, Oklahoma voters support raising taxes in order to generate teacher pay raises. Notice, there is a 24-point advantage for Republicans.
25
Boren Proposal– Initial Ask
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
All Men Women RepublicansDemocrats Minor Mkts. OKC Tulsa
60% 56%64%
54%
65% 66%60% 58%
34%40%
29%39%
30% 32% 35% 35%
Favor Oppose
43% Definitely Yes; 17% Probably Yes; 8% Probably No; 26% Definitely No; 6% Undecided
This issue starts with a sizeable lead. Democrats and women lead the charge – but even among registered Republicans we see a 15-point advantage.
26
Boren Proposal– by AgeThe strongest line comes from age. The issue becomes very competitive among those over the age of 55.
27
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
80%82%
72%
58% 52% 51%53%
0% 14%22%
34% 43% 46% 43%
Favor Oppose
Best Option for Teacher Pay Raise?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA
Tulsa DMA
Minor DMA
12% 12% 11% 10% 13% 11% 10% 17%
23% 22% 23% 19%26%
22% 23%25%
45% 47% 42% 50%40% 49% 44% 32%
Sales Tax Increase Broaden Sales Tax Base Cut Tax Credits
12% Sales Tax Increase; 23% Broaden Sales Tax Base; 45% Cut Tax Credits; 21% Undecided
28
Despite the support we see for the Boren sales tax proposal, voters really prefer other options for raising teacher pay – in fact, only 12% support this option. They would much rather see tax credits cut or even the sales tax base broadened.
Republicans are the most in favor of getting rid of tax credits for this purpose.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
All Men Women Republicans Democrats Urban Rural
70% 68% 72%79%
60%70% 70%
27% 29% 25%20%
34%26% 27%
Favor Oppose
47% Strongly Favor; 23% Somewhat Favor; 11% Somewhat Oppose; 16% Strongly Oppose; 4% Undecided
The concept of school choice is overwhelmingly popular. Among registered Republicans, it is a 4-to-1 winner and approaches 2-to-1 among Democrats.
Favor School Choice?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
All Men Women Republicans Democrats GOP Primary Voters
Dem Primary Voters
55% 55% 54%58%
49%
57%
44%
37% 38% 37%32%
45%
34%
49%
Favor Oppose
29% Strongly Favor; 25% Somewhat Favor; 11% Somewhat Oppose; 26% Strongly Oppose; 8% Undecided
The initial ask on ESAs shows solid majority support and an 18-point advantage.
ESAs start more partisan than the other reforms tested. Democrat primary voters actually lean against ESA’s and differ from Democrats without a history of voting in primaries by a significant margin. (non-primary voting Democrats 56% support – very close to Republicans).
Favor ESAs? Initial Ask
Education Savings Accounts—often called ESAs--is a proposal which would allow parents to take a portion of the yearly state funding which is currently used to educate their child in a traditional public school and create a personalized account to fund their child’s education expenses. These expenses could be customized to include private or parochial school tuition, online education programs, tutoring, and books, and other future college expenses. These Education Savings Accounts would be administered and overseen by the state and would contain taxpayer protections against fraudulent activity or misuse of funds.
Favor Cigarette Tax Increase?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA
Tulsa DMA
Minor DMA
68%62%
73%
62%
73%67% 68% 69%
29%
36%
23%
34%25% 30% 29% 26%
Favor Oppose
55% Strongly Favor; 13% Somewhat Favor; 7% Somewhat Oppose; 22% Strongly Oppose;
3% Undecided
31
We see very strong support for $1.50 per pack cigarette tax increase. Among Republicans, the advantage is 28 points – and 48 among Democrats.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
All Voted Rep. Primary
Und. State Leg.
Generic Ballot Test
Und. Presidential Ballot Test
Trump and Clinton Unfav.
Rep. Fallin Unfav.
Somewhat Cons.
68%63% 69%
73% 68%63%
72%
29%34%
26% 23% 28%
36%
27%
Favor Oppose
Favor Cigarette Tax Increase?
32
Swing voters –like somewhat conservative and those undecided on the presidential election are among the most supportive.
How Vote on Alcohol SQ?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
January Today Men Women Repub. Democrats OKC Media
Tulsa Media
64%60%
65%
56%59% 60% 58% 65%
31% 36% 32%40% 37%
36%38%
31%
Yes No
Today, this contest is a little closer than we saw in January.
33
49% Definitely Yes; 11% Probably Yes; 5% Probably No; 31% Definitely No;
4% Undecided
The negative change occurs primarily in the rural southeast, rural northwest and a little bit in central Oklahoma. We saw no change in Tulsa and slight improvement in the rural northeast.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
All Northwest Northeast Cent. OK Southwest Tulsa Southeast
60%54% 59% 60% 61%
72%
49%
36% 39% 35% 37% 37%
25%
49%
Yes No
34
How Vote on Alcohol SQ?