UN Development Information Day
24th October2012
Poverty and ecology: developing a new evolutionary approach
Ke Zhang
John Dearing , Richard Treves (Southampton University); Xiangdong Yang, Xuhui Dong (NIGLAS, Nanjing); Weiguo Zhang (East China Normal University, Shanghai); Terry Dawson (Dundee University) Paul Sillitoe (Durham University)
Project objective
Developing an evolutionary framework to understand the long-term dynamics of coupled socio-ecology system
Beijing
Yangtze River
CHINA
Study region
Population (*1000) Area (km2) Farmer's income/capit ($)0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Huangmei County
Shucheng County
Wujiang County
Chongming County
Population (*1000) Area (km2) Farmer's income/capit ($)0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Huangmei County
Shucheng County
Wujiang County
Chongming County
Different Catchment areas size in the study region
Taibai Chaohu Taihu Lower Yangtze Basin
Are
a (k
m2 )
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000200000
220000
240000
607 km2
9,258 km2
36,500 km2
220,000 km2
Different Catchment areas size in the study region
Taibai Chaohu Taihu Lower Yangtze Basin
Are
a (k
m2 )
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000200000
220000
240000
607 km2
9,258 km2
36,500 km2
220,000 km2
(Dearing et al 2012, PNAS)
Regulating services
Provisioning services
Grain
Aquatic
Livestock
Timber
Water purification
Erosion regulation
Air quality regulation
Biodiversity
Sediment quality
Sediment regulation
Food
Diatom-inferred phosphorus
Magnetic susceptibility
lead concentration
pollen-inferred richness
Sediment phosphorus
Sediment accumulation rate
Timber
Demography
Economy
Govemance and policy
Climate
Population
GDP
Precipitation, temperature
Policy
Drivers
Tradeoffs
Year
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-2
-1
0
1
2
Regulating services indexProvisioning services index
Year
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-2
-1
0
1
2
Regulating services indexProvisioning services index
Year
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-2
-1
0
1
2
Regulating services indexProvisioning services index
Year
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-2
-1
0
1
2
Regulating services indexProvisioning services index
Year
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Regulating services indexProvisioning services index
Year
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Regulating services indexProvisioning services index
Year
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-2
-1
0
1
2
Regulating services index
Provisioning services index
Year
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-2
-1
0
1
2
Regulating services index
Provisioning services index
Provisioning services nornalised value
-1 0 1 2
Reg
ulat
ing
serv
ices
nor
mal
ised
va
lue
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
3 point moving average
Provisioning services nornalised value
-1 0 1 2
Reg
ulat
ing
serv
ices
nor
mal
ised
va
lue
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
3 point moving average
Provisioning services nornalised value
-1 0 1Reg
ulat
ing
serv
ices
nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3 point moving average
Provisioning services nornalised value
-1 0 1Reg
ulat
ing
serv
ices
nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3 point moving average
Provisioning services nornalised value
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0Reg
ulat
ing
serv
ices
nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.83 point moving average
Provisioning services nornalised value
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0Reg
ulat
ing
serv
ices
nor
mal
ised
val
ue
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.83 point moving average
Provisioning services nornalised value
-1 0 1 2-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Reg
ulat
ing
serv
ices
nor
mal
ised
val
ue
3 point moving average
Provisioning services nornalised value
-1 0 1 2-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Reg
ulat
ing
serv
ices
nor
mal
ised
val
ue
3 point moving average
ARIMA(2,1,1)
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wat
er q
ualit
y
40
60
80
100
Reg
ime
Shi
ft I
ndex
0
1
2
3
4
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SD
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Res
idua
ls
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Tipping point and early warning signal
Rising variance gives early warning signal ~30 years before threshold
ARIMA(2,1,1)
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wat
er q
ualit
y
40
60
80
100
ARIMA(2,1,3)
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wat
er q
ualit
y
0
40
80
120
160
Taihu Lake
ARIMA(2,1,1)
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
wat
er q
ualit
y
40
80
120
160
200
ARIMA(1,2.1)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wat
er q
ualit
y
0
40
80
120
160
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010S
D3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SD
1
2
3
4
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wat
er Q
ualit
y (
mg/
l) 40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
40
80
120
160
Taibai Lake Chaohu Lake Taihu Lake Tidal Yangtze
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SD
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-2
0
2
4
Reg
ime
shift
inde
x
0
1
2
3GDPPopulationFertilizer usage
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SD
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Wat
er Q
ualit
y( m
ol/l)
A B
C D E
z-sc
ore
Critical transition of water quality in the whole region
Zhang et al., unpublished
Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation
Zhang et al., unpublished
Palaeoenvironmental sources of ‘regulating services’ provide new and important long term perspectives on ecological stability/degradation
The environment are approaching or already in the critical transition period since 1980s.
Tradeoffs patterns between provisioning services and regulating services in the last 100 years are clear unsustainable.
There is no sign of decoupling economic growth from the environmental degradation in east China
Conclusion
Thanks!