Download - UCLA Climate Research Lounge
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U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e
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What Climate Change Means for Southern California:
Results From the Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region Project
Alex Hall December 3, 2013
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Long Beach
Downtown LASanta Monica
San Fernando Valley
San Bernardino
Palmdale
Ventura
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Downtown LA
Santa Monica
Glendale
Burbank
Culver City
Hollywood
Sherman OaksPasadena
InglewoodDowney
South Los Angeles
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We applied ~30 global climate models to the Los Angeles region
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Baseline Mid-Century End-Century
Business As Usual
Mitigation
1880 1960 2000 2040 2080
1400
1200
400
200
ppm
Observed
We projected future climate for 2 scenarios
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Bakersfield
Palm Springs
San Diego
SantaBarbara
Los Angeles
SanBernardino
Average August Temperature 1981–2000
Temperature
Average August Temperature2041–2060: Business As Usual
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Average August Temperature
Temperature
90
85
80
1981–2000
75
2041–2060
Business As Usual
At least 70% of Business-As-Usual warming is inevitable
Mitigation
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2041–2060Business As Usual
100 days >
1981–200060 days >
Days Hotter Than 95⁰F Per Year
San Fernando
Santa Monica
Woodland Hills
Baldwin HillsDowntown LA
Studio City
Long Beach
Venice
Watts
WestwoodHollywood
Porter Ranch
Sunland
El Sereno
Pasadena
Santa Ana
SantaClarita
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Adaptation is inevitable.
Water resources
Fire
SnowTemperatures
Sea level riseEcosystem effects
But is it enough?
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Average August temperature
Temperature
90
85
80
1981–2000
75
2041–2060
Business As Usual
Mitigation
2081–2100
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California Climate Change Projections
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For more on the Climate Change in LA Project:
C-CHANGE.LA
U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e
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U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e
Thank You
Department of EnergyNational Science FoundationLos Angeles Mayor’s OfficeLos Angeles Regional CollaborativeClimate ResolveUCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability
Special Thanks to:
Beth JinesJonathan ParfreyPaul BunjeMadelyn GlickfeldMark GoldGlen MacDonaldStephanie Pincetl
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U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e
CreditsPresentation design, maps and illustrations by www.greeninfo.org
Photography/Images:
California Geological SurveyLos Angeles TimesOrange County RegisterMark A. JohnsonAccuweather.com IPCCNewser.comAssociated Press/Huffington PostNASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesXweather.org
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Average Dec–Mar Precipitation1981–2000
Precipitation
Little change in precipitation by mid-century*Average Dec–Mar Precipitation2041–2060: Business As Usual
*Results are preliminary
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Precipitation
But other factors affect water resources
Snowpack
Evaporation
Streamflow
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Snowfall
Idyllwild
Wrightwood
Lake Arrowhead
87”
40”
87”
Baseline Annual Snowfall
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Snowfall
Idyllwild
Wrightwood
Lake Arrowhead
52”
22”
53”
Business As UsualMid-Century
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Snowfall
Idyllwild
Wrightwood
Lake Arrowhead
62”
27”
63”
MitigationMid-Century
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Fire
45000
Acres Burned by Wildfires*
5000
25000
15000
35000
1981–2000
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2041–2060Business As Usual
*Preliminary results from fire study conducted in collaboration with Yufang Jin and Jim Randerson at UC Irvine
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U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e