Trends of Labour Market and the Need for the Labour resources in Lithuania,
WIT Seminar: Development of “The 21st Century Skills” of Social Professionals, Vilnius, 26th of June 2014
Prof. Boguslavas GRUŽEVSKISVilnius University
With financial support from the European Union
European Commission as contracting Authority
CONTENT
1. Global crisis of qualified workforce supply;
2. The 21st century profession challenges for social professions;
3. Changes in the labour market and the problems of workforce deficit in Lithuania;
4. Possibilities of workforce deficit problem solution.
Global crisis of workforce supply (1)
The deficit of qualified workforce is becoming more visible in the EU countries:
a) Due to demographic changes (In 2012 the workforce was decreased in the EU for the first time in addition to the
population ageing process);
b) Due to the growing competition and structural inconsistencies;
c) Due to changing values (NEET youth).
Global crisis of workforce supply (2)
The global crisis of workforce supply: on the one hand, youth unemployment on the increase; on the other hand, qualified workforce deficit is becoming more visible.
In 2013 the ILO estimate in the developed countries was about 75 mn. unemployed people up to 25 year of age.
Global crisis of workforce supply (3)
In 2013 only 43 percent of employers (Brazil, Germany, India, Mexico, Morocco, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, USA, GB) could relevantly satisfy their need for qualified workforce;
In 2020 the deficit of high and medium qualification specialists in the world will reach approximately 85 mln. (McKinsey Global Institute);
OECD countries 12-13 percent Among 15-24 y.o.
youth NEET is obvious.
The 21st century challenges
1. The dematerialization of the economic activities;
2. The domination of the IT use and work in the virtual sphere;
3. The importance of creative skills and LLL;
4. Change and flexibility in professional activities (concept of modern career, profession vs. self-realization).
The 21st century profession challenges for social professions
1. Community life disintegration (anomie, E.Durkheim), egocentrism (ego-mania, Meister
Eckhart, 13th c.)
2. Domination of virtual space in people's contacts;
3. Self-motivation and self-control;
4. Creativity, flexibility, generation Y ....
Employment problems in Lithuania
1. Decrease of total population numbers, population ageing;
2. Decrease of labour resources, deficit of qualified workforce;
3. Low salaries, lack of attractiveness of the Lithuanian labour market;
4. "Poverty trap" and illegal employment;
5. Low work efficiency and technological level of workplaces.
34,1 30,5 35,1 34,1 30,938,9
43,8 43,8 40,9 41,5
-4,8 -13,3 -8,8 -6,8 -10,7
-20,3
-8,8 -7,7
-21,6-16,8
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2000 2005 2008 2012 2013
Birth rate Death rate Natality Migration balance
Birth rate, death rate and migration balance in Lithuania in 2000-2013, thous.
Source: Data provided by the Statistics Department.
POPULATION OF LITHUANIA CLASSIFIED BY POPULATION OF LITHUANIA CLASSIFIED BY GENDER AND AGE 2010 and forecast for 2060GENDER AND AGE 2010 and forecast for 2060
050001000015000200002500030000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95+
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
2010 2010 MenMen
20102010
WomenWomen
2060206011
11
the share of 65 y.o. and older population in the total population, 2013 (%)
European Union (28 countries)79157686 92257825 116,5 18,2 Romania 103,8Belgium 1898072 1959654 103,2 17,6 Czech R. 113,3Bulgaria 989989 1395471 141,0 19,2 Sweden 113,4Czech Republic 1560296 1767618 113,3 16,8 Finland 114,2Denmark 977596 999801 102,3 17,8 Estonia 115,1Germany (including former GDR)10736998 17002915 158,4 20,7 Spain 116,5Estonia 206819 238053 115,1 18,0 EU 28 116,5Ireland 1004258 562405 56,0 12,2 Malta 117,9Greece 1622022 2226134 137,2 20,1 Slovenia 118,1Spain 7089998 8262078 116,5 17,7 Hungary 118,9France 12171227 11520640 94,7 17,6 Croatia 121,5Croatia 636539 773141 121,5 18,1 Lithuania 124,2Italy 8348338 12639829 151,4 21,2 Austria 125,3Cyprus 141794 114442 80,7 13,2 Latvia 129,9Latvia 292316 379784 129,9 18,8 Portugal 131,1Lithuania 436576 542198 124,2 18,2 Greece 137,2Luxembourg 91233 75057 82,3 14,0 Bulgaria 141,0Hungary 1430865 1701675 118,9 17,2 Italy 151,4Malta 61319 72278 117,9 17,2 Germany 158,4Netherlands 2877922 2824345 98,1 16,8Austria 1219363 1527257 125,3 18,1
Source: Eurostat data.
3,6
13,3
3,6
10,2
-13,2
3,8
5,5
0
2,7
6,5
5,6
10,3
12,5
20
0
4,8
1,9
6,7
3,7
10
5,6
11,8
14,3
11,5
3,2
44,4
24,1
-27,6
0
10,9
-7,7
0
13,7
7,8
27,3
37,5
-22,7
-14,4
-18,2
40
0
3
17,7
-19,5
5
5,6
23,7
-11
-18,7
34,7
19,2
-6,1
-3,2
-2
-3,7
-0,3-4,5
-5,6
-2,8
6
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
ES 27
Ireland
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech R.
Denmark
Estonia
Greece
Spain
Italy
Great Britain
Cyprus
Latvia
Poland
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Portugal
France
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Finland
Sweden
Hungary
Germany
Norway
Switzerland
2010-2060
2010-2025
EU member states' total population forecast changes (%)(Calculated based on the Eurostat 2011 forecast (EUROPOP) and current statistical data of the national
statistics services)
Unemployment indices 2008-2014
73,4
203,1
312,1
247,2
216,9203,5 198,6
19,241 46,6 39,2 32,2 22,8 21,9
5,8
13,8
17,8
15,413,4
11,1 10,8
13,3
29,6
35,7
32,6
26,7
21,9 21,4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Th
ou
s.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Perc
.
Unemployed, thous. Young unemp. (15-24), thous.
Unemploym. Level Youth unemploym.
Source: Data of Statistics Department, Labour Exchange.
* As of April 1, 2014; youth unemployment index, perc. – data of February 2014.
Unemployed according to education,as of beginning of 2014
Education of the unemp. Amount Share,%Total 203544 100Higher university 18546 9,1Higher non-universuty 28048 13,8Secondary 107050 52,6Basic 36290 17,8Elementary 13296 6,5No elementary 314 0,2No professional training 81944 40,3
Source: Lithuanian Labour Exchange.
Assessment of the workforce deficit in Lithuania in 2011 (perc.)
Based on the data of Lithuanian Confederation of Industrialists. Internet access: http://www.easystart.lt/media/dynamic/files/292/2012_i_ketv_pli_apzvalga.pdf.
Source: Už. Ruokytė, A.V.Rutkauskas, V.Navickas Tax and labour market interaction, Vilnius, 2012, p. 121.
46
23
42
57 6151 48
53
77
58
43 3949 52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Food industry Textileindustry
Wood industry Electronicindustry
Chemicalindustry
Vehicleindustry
All industries
No deficit Deficit
Supply and demand of the qualified workforce in Lithuania in 2013
The qualified workers and craftspeople have
57.9 thousand work places, the majority of them:Job
vacancies
(thousand)
Unempl
oyed
(thousand)
welders; 3.8 2.2
builders using traditional materials; 3.7 1.7
mechanics and service technicians of the engine-powered
vehicles; 3.7 4.3
construction carpenters and woodworkers; 3.4 3.9
bakers and confectioners; 3.3 1.4
bricklayers; 2.4 2.1
electricians for buildings, etc.; 2.4 1.7
concrete workers; 2.2 1.1
water supply and piping fitters; 2.0 1.2
forestry and wood processing employees; 1.9 0.7
butchers and fishery workers as well as related professions; 1.5 0.4
mechanics and service technicians - industr. & agricult.
machines; 1.4 1.0
toolmakers and workers of related professions; 1.4 1.2
seamstresses and hatters; 1.1 0.2
The main reasons for non-employment classified by gender (percent, research data as of 2009).
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Not satisfied with work conditions
Found another job
Due to violation of work discipline
Started out studies
Men Women
%
Net income in EU 27 and Net income in EU 27 and Lithuania,Lithuania, Euro per month Euro per month
*Income of a single person without children, 50 percent of the average income.**Income of a married couple with two children, income of one – 100 percent, of the other one – 67 percent of the average income.Source: Eurostat.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EU 27* 1,191 1,223 1,254 1,255 1,240 1,288 1,317 1,373
Lithuania*
183 214 263 308 287 282 290 303
EU 27** 3,978 4,085 4,189 4,192 4,140 4,302 4,398 4,583
Lithuania**
610 716 880 1,030 959 942 967 1,012
Possibilities of workforce deficit problem solution (1)
Where will we look for the necessary employees???
1. Macro-level (state) actions;
2. Micro-level (company) actions.
Possibilities of workforce deficit problem solution (2)
1. On the macro-level (state)
1.1. Improvement of professional training;
1.2. Organizing practical professional training;
1.3. Adequate funding of ALMP instruments;
1.4. Promotion of immigration policies: a) for Lithuanian citizens, b) for foreign citizens (esp. Third world countries);
1.5. Decrease in "poverty trap" and shadow economy manifestations;
1.6. Increasing employment attractiveness for retired people.
Possibilities of workforce deficit problem solution (3)
2. On the micro-level (company)
2.1. A more effective use of the current personnel;
2.2. Company attractiveness publicity/increase (e.g., CSR);
2.3. Integration of personnel use issues in the implementation of other production tasks;
2.4. Purposeful cooperation with territorial labour exchange offices;
2.5. Direct contact with graduates and alumni, targeted scholarships.
Which sources of workforce search do not we make use of?
a) Employee (potential employee) data banks;
b) Activation of workforce search (premiums, contacts, publicity campaigns);
c) Direct contacts with NGOs.
The best solution to the workforce The best solution to the workforce
deficit problem is the increase of deficit problem is the increase of
effective use of the currently available effective use of the currently available
personnel.personnel.
THEN ALL WILL WIN.THEN ALL WILL WIN.
This training material is supported by the European Union Programme for Employment and Social Solidarity - PROGRESS (2007-2013). This programme is implemented by the European Commission. It was established to financially support the implementation of the objectives of the European Union in the employment, social affairs and equal opportunities area, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Europe 2020 Strategy goals in these fields.The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appropriate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and EU candidate and pre-candidate countries.For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/progress.The information contained in this publication doesn’t necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission.The sole responsibility of this content lies with the author. The Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information here contained.
With financial support from the European Union – European Commission as Contracting Authority