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Trends – and Realities – for Oregon Students
Presentation to the Higher Education Coordinating CommissionDecember 10, 2015
Dr. Chris Maples, President, Oregon Institute of Technology
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• Getting into college less challenging than getting through and out with a degree [access versus completion]
• Part-time students working multiple part-/full-time jobs
• Completing bachelor’s in 4 years no longer the norm
• High school enrollment flattening nationally (Oregon exception?)
• Student diversity increasing, but targeted support not keeping up with incoming enrollment
• Federal dollars -- and sometimes private dollars -- exceed state dollars
• Rural students remain challenged: completion rates still lower, but improving with targeted programs in recent years (Eastern Promise; rural focus on GEAR UP; campus-based programs)
National Trends … also Reflected in Oregon
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Oregon Trends in Higher Education
The gap caused by simultaneous enrollment growth and funding cuts damaged campus support systems and accelerated tuition growth
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Students’ Tuition Growth Fatigue Will Wear Oregon Down
Rank 18th
Nationally in Tuition Growth (‘08-15)
University 2015 Tuition & Fees*
EOU $ 7,440
OIT $ 8,445
OSU $ 9,122
PSU $ 7,794
SOU $ 7,701
UO $ 9,918
WOU $ 9,105
*Rates from College Tuition Compare website; campus calculations may be slightly different.
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Higher Ed Funding in Oregon: Empathy or Apathy?And yet we’re still among most efficient in nation in cost per degree (4-year public):
• Oregon: $58,356 per degree• US Avg: $66,436 per degree
• 2008–2015 Tuition increase—$2,141 (inflation adjusted)
• 2008–2015 State decrease—$2,142 (inflation adjusted)
Sources: 3-year average for 2011, 2012, 2013, NCES Data; 7-year trends Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
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Percentage of First-Time Students at Public Four-Year Degree-Granting Institutions Who Were State Residents, Fall 2002 and Fall 2012
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2015, Figure 28
Non-resident Tuition Pays for Oregon Students: Stop Gap or Permanent?
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Debt Trending Up, but Promising Declines in Defaults
Student Loan Debt and Default Rates for Oregon’s Public UniversitiesInstitution Average Debt
2014*Average Debt
2004†Percentage
w/Debt 2014*Percentage
w/Debt 2004*Default Rate
FY2012** Default Rate
FY2010**
STATE RANK††
EOU N/A $15,447 N/A 67% 8.0% 11.2%
OIT $29,685 $21,630 72% 75% 3.0% 5.3%
OSU $21,955 $16,952 58% 62% 3.9% 6.1%
PSU $28,410 $18,085 62% 70% 5.1% 7.6%
SOU $30,936 $21,334 88% 72% 6.4% 9.8%
UO $24,508 $18,029 50% 60% 4.6% 5.7%
WOU $28,331 $19,422 68% 51% 7.1% 7.0%
STATE AVG $26,106 $18,152 62% 64% -- --20th in avg. debt in US
Sources: *Project on Student Loan Debt, Pew, w/State Avg including Private 4-year Non-Profit institutions (privates’ averages very similar to publics), from campus self-reported data from Peterson’s; **U.S. Dept. of Education; †OUS 2006 Fact Book, Class of 2004-05; † †Rank among all 50 states
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State of Oregon 2003-04 Total (Rank in U.S.)
2013-14 Total (Rank in U.S.)
10-year increase
Total Grant Aid $21.8 million (34th rank) 55.4 million (30th rank) +154%
Need-Based Aid p/Undergraduate Enrollment
$166. p/undergraduate
(31st rank)
$327. p/undergraduate
(21st rank)
+ 97%
Total State Grant Expenditures as % of State Fiscal Support for Higher Ed
3.7%
36th rank
8.8%
27th rank
+138%
Source: National Association of State Student Grant Programs, 2003-04 and 2013-14 Reports
Slow but Steady Growth in Aid Showing Returns…
… in lower percentage with debt, improving retention rates
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• Continue increasing funding for high-return student support services (immediate higher returns, e.g., more graduates▫ Lesson Learned: It doesn’t matter how cheap we make
the price, if students can’t persist, it’s too expensive
• Keep up steady investments in OOG and campus aid, Lesson Learned: investments really matter: slowing debt growth, decreasing default rates, and increasing retention rates (which translate into degrees)
Leveraging What Works
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• Deep cuts make deep scars that take decades to heal (when or if funding returns) ▫ Lesson Learned: Retention rates, access and graduation rates for Oregonians,
equity, and many other factors decrease and fail when starved
▫ “Muscle” – the very infrastructure that supports students – is hard to bring back without consistent infusion of investments
• Pathways affect costs, aid, borrowing▫ Lesson Learned: Students can burn up all or most of Pell, and take on debt getting
2-year degree (for living expenses, not just tuition), which can affect 4-year degree completion (fed aid caps)
• Measure the right stuff, not your grandfather’s stats▫ Lesson Learned: Most national and state tracking leaves out anyone who is not a
traditional full-time, first time freshman. We have so many success stories that don’t reach the outcomes screen
Stability vs Boom-Bust-Bust-Bust is a Must