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Dialogue. Insight. Solutions.
Transportation Systems Resilience:
Effective measures and research needs
National Science Foundation:
National Workshop on Resilience Research
October 22, 2015
Steve Winkelman Director
Transportation and Adaptation
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1. CCAP approach
2. Transportation, climate change
and critical infrastructure
3. Matching vulnerabilities
and solutions
4. Implementation strategies
5. Research needs
1
OVERVIEW
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CCAP: CENTER FOR CLEAN AIR POLICY (SINCE 1985)
CCAP Approach
• Thought leadership
• Applied research
• On-the-ground
support
• Expert dialogue
Key CCAP Themes
• GHG Mitigation
• Climate Finance
• Public-private
collaboration
• Distributed Energy
• Urban Sustainability
• Climate Adaptation
www.ccap.org
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Ask the Climate Question How will key policies and infrastructure investments affect
GHGs and Climate Resilience?
GHGs or GHGs ?
Resilience or Vulnerability ?
CCAP’s Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative partners
asked the Climate Question across departments and functions
- Thank you to Ron Sims and Jim Lopez
ASK THE CLIMATE QUESTION!
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CCAP’S VISION OF RESILIENCE: WE CAN GET TO WORK
4
Washington DC., Chinatown Metro. Source: Amazon AWS
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THE LIGHTS STAY ON
5
Washington DC. Source: Panoramio
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….AND WE CAN STILL HAVE FUN
6
Washington DC. Source: Biography.com
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SELECTED PUBLICATIONS: TRANSPORTATION AND ADAPTATION
Climate Adaptation & Transportation: Identifying Information and Assistance Needs
Severe Weather & Critical Infrastructure Resilience: Preparing Washington D.C.
Growing Wealthier: Smart Growth, Climate Change, & Prosperity
Green Infrastructure and Climate Adaptation
Lessons Learned on Local Climate Adaptation
Ask the Climate Question
Green Resilience: Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Synergies
7
LiDAR
S. Winkelman
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Transportation, Climate and
Critical Infrastructure
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FEDERAL TRANSPORTATION RESILIENCE EFFORTS
Presidential Policy Directive :
Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience
- 2013 assigns responsibility to DHS and DOT
• Department of Homeland Security: Transportation Systems Sector-
Specific Plan - 2010
• Department of Transportation Adaptation Plan – 2012 (updated 2014)
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FEDERAL TRANSPORTATION RESILIENCE EFFORTS
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
– Planning: 19 pilot studies, Superstorm Sandy lessons learned,
Albuquerque adaptation scenario analyses
– Asset management: FHWA guidance on engineering practices
– Other tools and resources: Climate Change Sensitivity Matrix,
Climate data processing tool, Vulnerability assessment tool…
Federal Transit Administration (FTA)
– Transit agency adaptation assessment: 7 pilot studies
– Funding for Safety, Resiliency and All-Hazards Emergency
Response and Recovery Research Demonstrations
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TRANSPORTATION IS TELECOM DEPENDENT
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TRANSPORTATION DEPENDS ON TELECOM
TELECOM DEPENDS ON TRANSPORT
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TRANSPORT INFORMATION AND CONTROL SYSTEMS VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE IMPACTS
• Direct and indirect infrastructure
damage • Flooding
• Wind damage
• Heat
Power outages signal outages Increased demand for information
services during extreme events
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RESILIENT TRANSPORTATION SHOULD
• Protect transportation infrastructure itself
• Protect transportation telecom infrastructure
• Protect infrastructure that transportation telecom depends upon
• Plan & design transportation systems to function during telecom outages
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Matching vulnerabilities and
solutions
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THE STREETS FLOOD?
Photo source: Keystone USA-ZUMA/Rex Features
What can we do when…
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ROADS ARE WASHED OUT?
Chris Schneider AP
What can we do when…
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TRAIN STATIONS FLOOD?
PA NY/NJ
What can we do when…
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WILDFIRES STRIKE?
Photo source: New York Daily News
What can we do when…
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EXTREME HEAT BUCKLES RAIL?
FTA
What can we do when…
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RUNWAYS SOFTEN?
Phillip Dugaw/Reddit
What can we do when…
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U.S. Navy photo
Source: Old Dominion University Sea
Level Rise Initiative
MILITARY FACILITIES FLOOD
What can we do when…
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EVACUATION IS NECCESSARY
What can we do when…
Houston: Hurricane Rita evacuation, 2005 Source: www.houstonfreeways.com
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SECONDARY AND CASCADING EFFECTS ARISE?
• System interactions and interdependencies – Power, transport, water, telecom
• Hurricane shuts Galveston Port and Mississippi barge traffic – Droughts can do the same
• Floods in Thailand disrupt global supply chains
• Storm branches river culvert road outage
• Multiple storms soil saturation sewer overflow, flooding
• Pine beetles + Heat wave Fires, then storms erosion
• Derecho power out Metro & signal lights out traffic
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What can we do when…
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WHAT SOLUTIONS DO WE HAVE?
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A variety of measures:
• Engineering, design, planning, policy
• Short-term and long-term
• Narrowly focused and broad scale
• Directionally-correct and comprehensive
• Cross-cutting and sector specific
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REDUCE SUBWAY FLOODING AND PROMOTE LOW-CARBON TRANSPORT
Problem
NYC subway flooding after a
2007 storm. Source: MTA NYC Transit
26
MTA NYC Transit has allocated nearly
$90 million toward raising ventilation
grates and installing stair pads at
subway entrances. Source: MTA NYC Transit
Partial Solution
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MIND THE GAP
PA NY/NJ
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DEPLOYABLE SOLUTIONS
Portable barriers (ACSE)
Inflatable tunnel plug (NYC)
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GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE TO SHADE PEDESTRIAN & CYCLING FACILITIES
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GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE TO REDUCE URBAN FLOODING AND HEAT
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Chicago Climate Action Plan
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ALTERNATIVE MODES & NETWORK REDUNDANCIES
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MIX EVACUATION STRATEGIES
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Pre designated evacuation
locations Source: Adaptation stories.com
Florida International University – fortified
library Source: Miami-Dade County
Evacuate in Place
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How a checklist could save $4 million!
Source: D. MacLeod, Toronto
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CULVERT REDESIGN: TORONTO
34
A 2005 storm in Toronto caused $647 million in damages, including destruction of this culvert (left, $4 milliion) in losses, which was replaced with a larger, more resilient
culvert (right). Source: Toronto Environment Office.
Photo credit for damaged culvert: Jane-finch.com. Photo credit for new culvert: City of Toronto Transportation Services.
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ELECTRICITY SECTOR RISKS
June 2012 Derecho – before/after
Source: NASA Earth Observatory
• Power outages
business interruptions
• US: $20 - 55 billion loss / year
• Drought: limited water for
hydroelectricity and for thermal power
plant cooling
• Heat: fires disrupt grid, increase
demand for A/C
• Flooding: generating facilities,
substations
• Wind storms: downed power lines
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• Energy efficiency
• GHGs
• grid overload, maintain continuity
• Distributed energy: on-site
renewables, Microgrids, storage,
CHP, District energy systems
• GHGs
• resilience -- business continuity
• Water use efficiency (power plant & public)
• energy, GHGs, drought prep
• Use treated wastewater for cooling
• Protect equipment
• Elevate, weatherize, relocate,
underground
• Keeps the lights on!
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Source: Pareto Energy
ELECTRICITY SECTOR GREEN RESILIENCE OPPORTUNITIES
Source: Massport
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BUILDINGS / ENERGY: GREEN RESILIENCE NEXUS
Mitigation Adaptation
Building Code
updates
↑ energy efficiency ↑ resilience to wind, flooding
earthquakes
Micro-grids Supports efficiency &
renewables
Enhance electricity grid resilience.
Maintain business continuity.
Protect / elevate
mechanical and
electrical systems
(↓ GHGs from
re-building)
Enhance electricity grid resilience.
Maintain business continuity.
Water efficiency,
grey water reuse
↓ GHGs from water
distribution & treatment
Prepare for declining water supplies.
Maintain ecosystem services.
Green infrastructure
(green roofs, green
walls, landscaping)
Cooling -- ↓ air conditioning
energy use
↓ water treatment needs
↓ urban heat island
↓ stormwater runoff
↑flood resilience
Maintain ecosystem services
MEASUREBENEFITS
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PROTECT VULNERABLE LINKS ON SUPPLY CHAIN
2011 Flooding in Thailand • $15 - $20 billion in losses
• Heaviest flooding in 50 years
• ~800 deaths
• Damaged automotive and electronics plants
• > 10,000 factories were forced to close
• > 350,000 workers while production was
suspended.
• Disrupted global supply chains
• Increased insurance costs
Integrated Solutions • Reinsurance and Insurance
• Relocate out of flood plains
• Building resilience
• Energy efficiency
• Microgrids, on-site CHP
• Review supply chain vulnerabilities
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Implementation Strategies
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WHAT’S NEEDED FOR IMPLEMENTATION?
40
RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION PLANNING
• Document past events, known vulnerabilities
• Project future impacts
• Assess vulnerabilities
• Evaluate resilience strategies
• Identify and pursue implementation opportunities
CHALLENGES
• Analytical (physical and economic)
• Policy/Legal
• Institutional
• Staff Capabilities
• Budgetary
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Business Household Municipal /
Regional
National
Return on Investment
… … … …
Savings on Expenditures
… … … …
Improved Quality of Life
… … … …
ENGAGE STAKEHOLDERS ON ECONOMIC BENEFITS
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CCAP’s Growing Wealthier matrix
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CONSIDER GREEN RESILIENCE: ADAPTATION + MITIGATION SYNERGIES
42 Green Resilience: Adaptation + Mitigation Synergies
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WHY INTEGRATE MITIGATION & ADAPTATION?
Green Resilience measures can:
Increase return on investments
– Mitigation, Adaptation
– Infrastructure
Expand funding sources
– Adaptation, Mitigation, Infrastructure, disaster relief,
development…
Multiple benefits can garner support from multiple champions
and accelerate implementation
43 Green Resilience: Adaptation + Mitigation Synergies
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ASK THE CLIMATE QUESTION FOR FUNDING DECISIONS
Does this investment:
• Reduce GHG emissions?
• Increase resilience?
Follow the Money
• Climate and Infrastructure
investments
• A lot of climate resilience comes
down to state of good repair and
good planning, both of which are
under-funded.
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FOLLOW THE MONEY: ADAPTATION, MITIGATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Adaptation Mitigation Infrastructure
$10,000,000 $10,000,000 $2,000,000,000
Dune
restoration
Wind turbines &
PhotovoltaicsRoads
$5,000,000 $5,000,000 $1,000,000,000
Green
Infrastructure
Green
Buildings
Water treatement
facilities
$1,000,000 $500,000 $500,000,000
Vulnerability
Assessment
Education &
OutreachTransit system improvements
Inve
stm
en
ts
#1
#2
#3
3x3 Green Resilience Matrix Identifying Climate Adaptation + Mitigation Synergies
WHAT ARE YOUR TOP 3 INVESTMENTS?
Ask the
3x3
Climate
Question
ExamplesExamplesExamples
$10,000,000 $10,000,000 $2,000,000,000
Dune
restoration
Wind turbines &
PhotovoltaicsRoads
$5,000,000 $5,000,000 $1,000,000,000
Green
Infrastructure
Green
Buildings
Water treatement
facilities
$1,000,000 $500,000 $500,000,000
Vulnerability
Assessment
Education &
OutreachTransit system improvements
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Research Needs
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Information on local, non-climate factors can be more
important than climate science information.
– Adaptation starts with determining how well critical infrastructure
is adapted to current climate and weather
– Infrastructure elevation, state of repair, culvert capacity
– Land development trends
– Natural factors: soil saturation, tide levels, river flows
– Interactions, cascading impacts
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LiDAR
S. Winkelman
IMPROVE DATA ON INFRASTRUCTURE, LAND USE, NATURAL FACTORS, SYSTEM INTERACTIONS
Climate Adaptation & Transportation: Identifying Information and Assistance Needs - CCAP & EESI for NOAA (2012)
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Recommendations for Federal Agencies (CCAP/EESI 2012)
– Research and Analysis
• Costs and benefits of resilience measures
• Data improvement
• Risk management methods
• Transportation structure, component, and material vulnerabilities
– Capacity Building
• Technical assistance (planning, design, construction, maintenance)
• Selecting and applying data and analytical tools
• Evaluation of measures (effectiveness, costs, benefits)
– Policy
• Integrating adaptation into planning processes, asset management
• Integrate adaptation with other environmental goals (GHG mitigation)
• Performance management guidelines on climate resilience
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MUCH IS UNDERWAY ALREADY
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NATIONAL ACADEMIES
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
RESILIENCE CONFERENCE
Topics
• Climate data availability
• Climate model downscaling
• Asset management
• Decision support tools
• Best planning practices
• Cost-benefit analysis
• Risk management
• Engineering and design
• Green infrastructure
• Information systems
• Policy
• State and local case studies
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RESEARCH NEEDS: INTERCONNECTING VULNERABILITIES
• Methods for identifying key nodes with multiple critical infrastructure elements, such as bridges or viaducts with transport, telecom and energy elements
• Developing metrics on cross-vulnerabilities
• Connecting critical infrastructure state-of-repair data with information on past extreme weather events and projected risks – assembling existing information, identifying data needs and
developing methodologies to cross-reference data sets.
• Assessing impacts of multi-modal accessibility and network redundancies on resilience to extreme events & disruptions – Pre-, during, post-
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• Measuring the opportunity costs of inaction to extreme
weather events and infrastructure disruptions
– Infrastructure repair/replacement (more typically included)
– Business interruption (in need of more research)
• Costs of resilience measures
– Incremental costs (typical approach)
– Costs of better upfront planning (often minimal)
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RESEARCH NEEDS: REFINING COST BENEFIT TECHNIQUES
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RESEARCH NEEDS: IT OPERATIONS AND CONTROL
• Transport/telecom interactions
– Vulnerabilities and resilience measures for
traffic signals, navigation systems, bus
scheduling, freight routing, tolling, etc.
• Future autonomous vehicle IT systems
– Evaluating performance in the case of IT network
outages due to extreme weather or other disruptions.
Source: www.ictas.vt.edu
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RESEARCH NEEDS:
IMPLEMENTATION AND DEPLOYMENT SUCCESSES
• Assess key factors for effective implementation – Why do cost-effective technologies and policies get implemented
some places and not others?
– Compare factors such as:
• Local economic and market conditions
• Political leadership
• Private sector champions
• Institutional coordination
• Stakeholder engagement
• Community involvement
• Quantification and communication of costs and benefits, including quality of life and security impacts
• Detailed finance plans linked with current infrastructure plans and budgets
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CLOSING THOUGHTS
• Knowing the solutions is only half the battle
– Effective stakeholder engagement, communication, marketing and lobbying are key
• Common sense can go a long way
• Accidental Resilience: Solutions often not driven by climate change concerns
– Business owners just want to save energy costs and keep the lights on
– Passive building design maintains building temperature during power outages.
• Intentional Resilience: Plan ahead to avoid conflicts and maximize synergies.
– Boston refueling facility: PV + batteries GHGs & preparedness for power outages.
• Strategic Opportunism
– Build upon policy momentum and market trends
– Identify catalytic opportunities for short-term results
• Ask the Climate Question and Respond via Changed Spending Decisions
• Pursue Resilience Research
– Interconnected vulnerabilities, cost/benefit, IT operations and controls, implementation
•
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THANK YOU
www.ccap.org
Steve Winkelman Director, Transportation and Adaptation Programs
@stevewink
Thank you to:
Chuck Kooshian Senior Transportation Policy Analyst