This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Carl Claunch
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013
CONSUMERIZATION
The Nexus of Disruptive Forces
"Big"Context
Extreme Behavior
Pervasive Access
Global Class Delivery
Key Issues• What will have the biggest potential for significant impact
over the next three years?• Which technologies or trends will drive significant change or
disruption?• Are there changes or tipping points occurring now or over the
next one to two years that make the technology newly strategic or applicable to a wider market?
1. Analytics and BI2. Mobile technologies3. Cloud computing4. Collaboration
Gartner Global CIO Survey 2012 (2,336 CIOs)
CIO Technology Priorities 2012
How Do Technology Trends Impact the Human, Organization and IT Experiences?
Human Experience
OrganizationExperience IT
Dep
t. E
xper
ienc
e
Trend Impact Assessment
1. Mobile Devices Battles2. Mobile Applications & HTML53. Personal Cloud4. Internet of Things5. Hybrid IT & Cloud Computing6. Strategic Big Data7. Actionable Analytics8. Mainstream In-Memory Computing9. Integrated Ecosystems10. Enterprise App Stores
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013
Mobile Device Battles:Prepare for Heterogeneity
• Mobile experience eclipses the desktop experience.
• Consumerization drives tablets into organizations. - BYOD and BYOA increases- MDM is not the only option
for securing mobile devices
• Mobile strategy is a process that must be maintained and refreshed
• Cloud and mobile are mutually reinforcing trends
• No platform, form factor or technology dominates.- Windows' share shrinks.
A Huge Growth in Smart Devices …
… Leads to a Major Installed Base Shift
PC OS
Mobile OS
billion
2012 2016
Feature Phones
Smart Phones
Mobile PC’s
Tablets
Feature Phones
Smart Phones
Mobile PC’s
Tablets
Unit Share 50%
2014
PC OS
Mobile OS
Mobile Device Battles:Microsoft Big Bet With Windows 8
• Can Microsoft usurp Google as the hardware OEM favorite?• Will a enterprise-friendly Windows 8 be enough to succeed?• Can Microsoft establish a robust app and content ecosystem and an
elegant interface attractive to individual consumers?• Will the crossover notebook/tablet be compelling?
1981
1993
DOS Era
2001
DOS
Windows on DOS
Windows 9X
Windows NT Era
2012
Windows RT Era
Win8Win9
WinNT
Windows 2000
XPVistaWin7Win8
Smartphone and Tablet Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 20160%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Android
Smartphone Tablet
MicrosoftiOS
• New expectations for usability, appearance and behavior
• The experience flows to where you are and what you are doing in context
• Multichannel integration and interactions becomes a requirement
• Development challenges abound
- New design skills- Cloud/Client
architecture- Complex apps- Native apps vs. HTML5
Mobile Applications and HTML5:Driving the Future User Experience
More InputsMore Places
More Actions
Mobile Applications and HTML5:Choosing Mobile Architectures
Native Special Hybrid HTML5 Message No Client
User Experience
Rich FunctionAD Cost
DeviceAPIs?Out of
Signal?FlexibleSecurityPlatform
RangeAgility
High/good Low/weak
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Personal Cloud:Moving Beyond Personal Computing• A collection of services
and a representation of your digital life
- Embraces multiple devices• The cloud is where users
center their digital lives. They are in control.
- Cloud storage for apps, content and preferences
- Cloud sync across devices- Mobile with seamless shift
between computing and communicating
• Contextually aware and operationally obviousapps
Personal
Prof
essi
onal
Community
Family
SchoolSchedule
Tax Info.NewsSports
Standings E-Gov.
ShoppingSchool
E-MailRSSMemories
Music
Hobbies
FinancialInfo.
Banking
Banking
Broad-band
Cell
Wi-Fi
TV CalendarMemories
MedicalFinancialHome
Security
IM E-MailPersonalRecords
Corp.Archives
Training
Pro
duct
ion
Dat
aMeetingRecords
Work at
Home
CorpApps
Benefits
Conferencing
VOIP
LAN
Wi-FiCell
FacebookTwitter
SMS
ContentServices
CommsDevices
Your Digital Life
2013-15: Mobile centric consumer and tactical organizational app store2014-16: Mainstream organizational app store - packaged and portal options2014/2018: Bring mobile and cloud together
‘Enterprise’ App Stores:The Future Portal and Delivery Model• Organizational App Stores are strategic for
governing cloud and mobile use in a consumer-driven world
• Consumer-Centric Requirements- App discovery/search and user choice- Install/update, trials, social network
• IT-Centric Requirement- License management and distribution- Verification testing, reporting- Approve, publish and control install/uninstall
• Challenges- App stores intersect multiple IT markets- Consumer store quality, support and licensing- Difficulty embracing "apptrepreneurs," user choice
and IT role as market manager
Potential New Entrants
IBM
Action Plan
The Internet of Things:It Is Already Here
Cameras and microphones widely deployedCameras and microphones widely deployed
New routes to client service via intelligent objects
New routes to client service via intelligent objects
Content and services via connected products
Content and services via connected products
Everything has a URLEverything has a URL
Remote sensing of objects and environment
Remote sensing of objects and environment
Augmented realityAugmented reality
Situational decision support
Situational decision support
Building & Infrastructure Management
Building & Infrastructure Management
Over 50% of Internet connections are things2011: 15+ billion permanent, 50+ billion intermittent2020: 30+ billion permanent, >200 billion intermittent
Audio
GPRS Wi-Fi NFC
Higher-resolution display
LTE
Flash
The Internet of Things:Impact and Implications
• CIOs will first feel the impact of IoT as OT and IT convergence
- By 2015, in more than 70% of orgs, a single executive will oversee all Internet-connected entities
- Focus on orchestration, not ownership• New processes, information insights and
service models become possible- Digital supply chain- Sensing and controlling- Usage-based insurance or taxes- City information services — "smart" city
• Consider IoT implications- Event streams and objects as "users"- Drives need for big data strategies- Extreme heterogeneity — device
capability, OS/API, legacy platforms
Start now…Start simple. Ask what if?
The Internet of ThingsBecomes the Internet of Everything
# of people here# people visitedWait timeReservation service
LocationDiagnosticsMovies watched
Time to green# of cars: no stop# of cars: stopped
Social networkLocationCalendar/JournalCredit history
ScheduleExpected disruptions
Places
Information
Things
People
Who will be responsible for delivery of cloud services?
Cloud Computing:Hybrid, Managed and Brokered
Secure, Manage and Govern Hybrid Cloud and Hybrid IT
Adopt cloud techniques and/or build private cloud environments
Strategic Models for Cloud Service Consumption
Adopt New Application Design and Architecture for Cloud
Make Externally Facing Services Cloud Services
2012-2014
2010 +
2013-2015
Cloud Strategy Elements
Mainstream Focus
Challenges
Ben
efit
Low and Manageable
High orUnmanageable
Hig
h an
d C
lear
Low
or
Unc
erta
in
Avoid
EmbracePublic
Experiment
ConsiderPrivate
Cloud Decision Framework
Resource Management
Service Management
Resources
Access Management
Service Optimization
Private Cloud Elements
IT as a Service BrokerEnterprise
ITCloud Services Broker
Private Svcs.
Public & Comm. Svcs.
Legacy Svcs.
Public & Comm. Svcs.(Cloud Mgmt. Platform)
Strategic Big Data:Moving Beyond Isolated Projects
Perishability Fidelity
Validation Linking
Classification Contracts
Technology Pervasive Use
Velocity Volume
Variety Complexity
"Big data" is high-volume, velocity and variety information assets that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing
for enhanced insight and decision making.
• Consider nontraditional data types and external data sources- GPS and sensors, weather service
or geologic survey data, traffic and roadwork feeds, social graphs
• Hadoop and NoSQL gain momentum
• Big data as a transformational architecture vs. isolated project
• homogeneous RDBMS model replaced with heterogeneous fabric
• Centralized model replaced with distributed "logical" model
Strategic Big Data:Big Data Meets Social
• Social Graph• Intent Graph• Consumption
Graph• Interest Graph• Mobile Graph
Consideration
Selection
Consumption
Awareness
Fulfillment
Support
Loyalty andPromotion
Social and Mobile ("Like")
Relevant Graph
Interest and Mobile
Intent and Mobile ("Want")
Payment and Mobile
Social
Social and Mobile
Social
The Consumer Funnel Five Richest Big Data Graphs on the Web
Strategic Big Data:The Future Model of the Data Warehouse
• Single EDW is a concept of the past — never achieved
• New DBMS and file systems emerging to handle specialized data types and very large detail data
• XML and content not moving into DBMS for text analytics
• Managing petabytes of data in a single DBMS is difficult and not productive
• Data needed for CEP and analytic applications requiring zero latency will be persisted in in-memory DBMSs
MDM
CEP
In-MemoryDBMS
Complex Data Types
Column-StoreDBMS
CloudDBMS
Data inHDFS
Content& XML
We will abandon the old models based on the desire to implement for high-value
analytic applications.
The Logical Data Warehouse
Actionable Analytics:Driven by Mobile, Social and Big Data Forces
• Cloud, packaged analytics and big data accelerates in 2013-14
• Real-time operational intelligence supports intelligent operations by the organization
• Usage emphasizes decision management and optimization
• Man-machine partnership emerges to enable new value
• Systems shift from computing and aggregation to reasoning, learning and acting
• Search and analytics become more intertwined
• Convergence of analytic trends drives new value
FROMFROM TOTO
Offline In-line embedded
Shifting Analytic FocusShifting Analytic Focus
Explanatory Predictive
Simple Structured
Complex Structure
Individualistic Collaborative
Historical Real Time
Static Rules and
Reports
Dynamic Rules Feeds and Messages
Specialist Consumer
In-Memory Computing: Reaching the Mainstream
In-Memory Data Mgmt.
In-MemoryDBMS
In-MemoryData Grid
High-Performance Messaging
Infrastructure
In-Memory App Platforms
Complex Event
ProcessingIn-Memory Analytics
In-Memory Application
Server
In-Memory-Enabled Applications
Memory-"Intensive" Computing Platform(DRAM, Flash, SSD, Multicore, Infiniband, Clusters, Grid, Cloud)
• Changes expectations, design and architecture
• Key opportunities- Boost performance and
response time- Enable real-time self-
service BI data exploration
- Enable elastic scale- Combine transactional
and analytical- Support big data
• Overcrowded and fragmented market slowly converging
• Focus on DBMS, data grid, analytics and CEP
End-to-End Ecosystems- Vendor-led model extending from
the client through app. providers- Promises secure and appliance
like mode for client devices
Integrated Ecosystems: Simplification, Optimization and SecurityAppliances
- Integrated hardware, software & services to address a workload
- Ease deployment & configuration and optimize performance
- No one appliance does it all
App/Cloud/Mobile Marketplaces
ServiceProvider
Service Provider
Service Provider
Serv
ice
Con
sum
er
Faci
litat
e/M
anag
e
Physical Virtual Hybrid
Server-Centric Appliances
End-to-End Managed Ecosystems
App StoreClient Content/App Provider
Marketplaces and Brokerages- Facilitate purchase, consumption,
and/or use of services or apps- May provide a foundation for app.
development and runtime
The Bottom Line• Mobile-centric trends and technologies increasingly define the
client environment and the core end-user application experience.
• Social networking and a contextual experience will permeate application design and interfaces across all target users.
• Information strategies must deal with data volume, velocity, variety and complexity exploiting new models to access, analyze, visualize and communicate patterns and insights.
• Cloud is becoming a mainstream computing style and delivery option with hybrid cloud, cloud brokerage and new delivery, management and security options accelerating adoption.
• A Nexus Strategy is more than separate mobile, social, information and cloud strategies.
Recommended Gartner Research iPad and Beyond: The Media Tablet in Business
David A. Willis (G00229639)
Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies, 2012Tuong Huy Nguyen and Carolina Milanesi (G00234209)
The Internet of Things Is ComingJohn Mahoney and Hung LeHong (G00219075)
The Impact of App Stores on Your Application StrategyDennis Gaughan and Ian Finley (G00213351)
Understanding the Logical Data Warehouse: The Emerging PracticeMark A. Beyer and Roxane Edjalli (G00234996)
The Importance of 'Big Data': A DefinitionMark A. Beyer and Douglas Laney (G00235055)
Who's Who in Collaborative Decision MakingRita L. Sallam (G00214928)
Hadoop and MapReduce: Big Data AnalyticsMarcus Collins (G00208798)
How Flash Memory in Servers Delivers Higher Value as a Uniquely Addressable Memory TypeCarl Claunch (G00218040)
Hype Cycle for Server Technologies, 2012George J. Weiss and Mike Chuba (G00230822)
Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2012David Mitchell Smith (G00230930)
For more information, stop by Experience Gartner Research Zone or e-mail us at [email protected].
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Carl Claunch
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013