Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Abigail Baca GFDRR Labs
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Life is uncertain…Disasters?
Climate Change?The weather tomorrow?
We need tools that enableinformed decision-making about these complex, dynamic systems
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Collaboration
Distribution
Cartography
Data collection
Geo Node = + Web Portal
Collaborative mapping and data sharing platforms
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Probabilistic Risk Modeling
Risk(i.e probable loss)
Hazard(i.e. hurricane wind)
Exposure(i.e. houses)
Vulnerability(of house to wind)
Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic -
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
CAPRA is an ongoing initiative to develop and enhance a set of free and open source GIS-based tools to understand, communicate and support decisions to reduce disaster risk within in Central America.
CAPRA ~ Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Multi-Peril Probabilistic Modeling
EARTHQUAKE HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO
TSUNAMI
GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDES
- GROUND SHAKING- HURRICANE RAINFALL
- OTHER RAINFALL
STRONG WINDS
STORM SURGE
HURRICANE RAINFALL
FLOODS
- HURRICANE RAINFALL- OTHER RAINFALL
ASH FALLS
BALLISTIC EJECTIONS
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
LAVA FLOWS
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Probabilistic Risk Modeling
Risk(i.e probable loss)
Hazard(i.e. hurricane wind)
Exposure(i.e. houses)
Vulnerability(of house to wind)
Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic -
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
San Juan del SurNicaragua
Haza
rdEx
posu
re
Risk:Physical Damage, Loss $
Scenario Risk ModelingVu
lner
abili
ty
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Stochastic Hazard Modeling
Frequency :How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100)Severity :How strong is the event?Hurricane Cat 5What does the event look like?Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc
Stochastic Event Set = All events that could impact a region0.1
1
10
100
10001 10 100 1000
Aceleración [cm/ s² ]
Perio
do de Re
torn
o [a
ños]
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
Tasa
de ex
cede
ncia [1/
año]
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Change Impact on Disasters
EARTHQUAKE HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO
TSUNAMI
GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDES
- GROUND SHAKING- HURRICANE RAINFALL
- OTHER RAINFALL
STRONG WINDS
STORM SURGE
HURRICANE RAINFALL
FLOODS
- HURRICANE RAINFALL- OTHER RAINFALL
ASH FALLS
BALLISTIC EJECTIONS
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
LAVA FLOWS
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO
PRESENTE estado actual sin
obras de mitigación
FUTURO con obras de
mitigación diseñadas para
T=100 años
T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO
PRESENTE estado actual sin
obras de mitigación
FUTURO con obras de
mitigación diseñadas para
T=100 años
Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios Base Model
T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO
PRESENTE estado actual sin
obras de mitigación
FUTURO con obras de
mitigación diseñadas para
T=100 años
Model A Model B
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Hazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
Risk
+
+
+
Applications
Visualization of hazard and risk
Territorial planning
Infrastructure design
Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments
Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness
Immediate damage assessment
Analysis of financial exposure
Climate Change
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Internal Demo version of Geo Node Expansion of Probabilistic Risk Models to other regions Integration of Climate Change scenarios into DRM
www.ecapra.orgwww.geonode.org
Abigail [email protected]
Labs