Download - Three keys to a radically better society?
Technology, Transhumanism, and TZM
Three keys to a radically better society?
Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists
David Wood @dw2
Technology, Transhumanism, and TZM
Three keys to a radically better world?
Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists
David Wood @dw2
@dw2
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“It’s the right thing to do(?)”
Ubiquitous interconnectivity means a crisis in the world will adversely impact everyone
Why think about the whole world?
Isn’t that naïve?
There are many risks of global crisis
@dw2
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Measuring the state of the world?
http://www.millennium-project.org/
17 annual State of the future report cards
Input from 4,500 thought leaders selected by 50 Nodes around the world
Founded by United Nations University, 1996
The Millennium Project
30 metrics
17 improving
7 worsening
6 unclear
World Report Card
Where are
We Winning?
http:// www.millennium-project.org/
Where are We Losing?
World Report Card
http://www.millennium-project.org/
What is Unclear or not Changing?
World Report Card
http://www.millennium-project.org/
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Measuring the state of the world?
http://www.millennium-project.org/
“The world is improving better than most pessimists know and future dangers are worse than most optimists indicate”
“People around the world are becoming healthier, wealthier, better educated, more peaceful, increasingly
connected, and living longer. Child mortality rate has dropped 47% since 1990, extreme poverty in the developing world fell from 50% in 1981 to 21% in 2010, primary school completion rates grew from
81% in 1990 to 91% in 2011, only one transborder war occurred in 2013,
nearly 40% of humanity is connected via the Internet, and life expectancy has increased 10 years over the past 20
years to reach 70.5 years today”
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Measuring the state of the world?
http://www.millennium-project.org/
“The world is improving better than most pessimists know and future dangers are worse than most optimists indicate”
“Water tables are falling on all continents, glaciers are melting, half the world's topsoil is destroyed,
coral reefs are dying, ocean acidity is increasing, ocean dead zones have doubled every decade since the 1960s,
income gaps are increasingly obscene, youth unemployment has reached dangerous proportions,
traffic jams and air pollution are strangling cities, $1-1.6 billion is paid in bribes, organized crime gets twice
the money per year than all the military budgets combined, intrastate conflicts and refugees are increasing,
and half the world is potentially unstable”
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http://www.millennium-project.org/
15 Global Challenges
@dw2
Page 11 15 Global Challenges How can… 1. Sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? 2. Everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 3. Population growth and resources be brought into balance? 4. Genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 5. How can decision-making be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight
during unprecedented accelerating change? 6. The global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 7. Ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 8. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? 9. How can education and learning make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise
enough to address its global challenges? 10. Shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of
weapons of mass destruction? 11. The changing status of women improve the human condition? 12. Transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and
sophisticated global enterprises? 13. Growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 14. Scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? 15. Ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
@dw2
Page 12 15 Global Challenges How can… 1. Sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? 2. Everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 3. Population growth and resources be brought into balance? 4. Genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 5. How can decision-making be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight
during unprecedented accelerating change? 6. The global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 7. Ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 8. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? 9. How can education and learning make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise
enough to address its global challenges? 10. Shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of
weapons of mass destruction? 11. The changing status of women improve the human condition? 12. Transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and
sophisticated global enterprises? 13. Growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 14. Scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? 15. Ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
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2014
2025
1993
Barry Ritkoltz
1993
2013
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/1993-vs-2013/
Barry Ritkoltz
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http://edge.org/conversation/the-technium
“The next 20 years are going to make this last 20 years just pale”
Kevin Kelly, co-Founder, Wired
“We're just at the beginning of the beginning of all these kind of changes. There's a sense that all the big things have happened, but relatively speaking, nothing big has happened yet. In 20 years from now we'll look back and say, ‘Well, nothing really happened in the last 20 years’ [1994-2014]”
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http://www.computerworld.com/slideshow/detail/143723#slide2
128MB 128GB
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Kindle books vs. physical books
www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch
E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon
in less than 3 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Progress by combination
• Technologies enabling Kindle explosion – Cheap digital storage – Low energy screens, pleasant to look at – High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution – Huge catalog of books available to purchase – Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform
+ Innovative business model
Improvements in computers: Performance
Applicability (digitisation)
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Page 20 Computations per kWh, 1950-2010 Improvement in energy efficiency of computers
Source: Jonathan Koomey,
Consulting Professor, Stanford Technology Review,
9 Apr 2012
10^3 to 10^15 40 doublings over 60 years
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427444/the-computing-trend-that-will-change-everything/
18 months average doubling
In line with “Moore’s Law”
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www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/
(Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965
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Impact of Moore’s Law to 2025
2014
2025
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
X 2
X 2 = 4
X 2 = 8
X 2 = 16
X 2 = 32
X 2 = 64
X 2 = 128 5 times faster
5 times cheaper
5 times smaller
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Changes in the last 11 years
2003
2014 5 times faster
5 times cheaper
5 times smaller
Smartphones
http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church
http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328
Professor George Church
Harvard
http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church
http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328
Professor George Church
Harvard
Positive
feedback
cycle
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20 tech breakthrough areas by 2025?
Big Data and the Internet of Things: many fewer secrets
Brain scanning: consciousness &
creativity decoded
Mind enhancing drugs (or hardware
stimulation, e.g. tDCS)
Cryptocurrencies: decentralised
consensus system
Nanomaterials with super-strength &
resilience
3D fabrication, with Atomically Precise
Manufacturing
Ubiquitous solar energy: major
reduction of oil usage
Wearable computers, Augmented Reality,
remote virtual avatars
Rejuvenation biotech: Stem cell therapies,
synthetic organs
Cognitive computing in healthcare: Most doctors redeployed
Automated robot workers: nurses,
soldiers…
Driverless cars, drones: much safer, greener transport
Credible cryonics: mass market suspensions
Virtual companions more compelling than
real ones
Geoengineering E.g. massive carbon
removal
Quantum computing: Moore’s Law -> Rose’s Law
Rational management of decisions
and resources
Synthetic meat: abolition of animal
suffering
Synthetic biology: reprogramming DNA,
new life forms
Sanitation & nutrition: Clean water, cities,
vaccinations…
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“Abundance 360 and Exponential Technologies (2014)”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCj7PlWRFf4
Channel: Peter Diamandis
http://abundance360summit.com/
http://singularityu.org/executive-program
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Predicting the impact of technology
“Books will soon be obsolete in schools”
“It is possible to teach every branch of human knowledge with the motion picture”
“Our school system will be completely changed inside of ten years”
July 1913, The New York Dramatic Mirror Thomas Alva Edison
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/ http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm
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Drawbacks to relying on technology 1. The underlying technology may be harder than expected
E.g. nuclear fusion; links DNA <-> disease; battery life; geo-engineering
2. Sometimes the technology is a side-show Beware “techno-solutionism” when changes in social policy would be better
3. Technology is a two-edged sword Authoritarian control; cyber-warfare; SIMAD
4. The “abundance” is subject to uneven “spread” Disproportionate rewards to marketplace winners (“winner takes all”) Technological unemployment (human workers displaced by robots)
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Purchased by Facebook in April 2012
With 13 employees And 100 million registered users
For approx $1 billion in cash and stock
Launched in October 2010 Sociable
Usable
Winner takes a larger reward Compare Kodak
1997 valuation $30B 86,000 employees
2,000x productivity?!
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Purchased by Facebook in Feb 2014
With 55 employees And 420 million active users
For approx $19 billion in cash & stock
Launched in March 2009 Sociable
Usable
Winner takes a larger reward
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Productivity vs. median income
http://www.epi.org/publication/ib330-productivity-vs-compensation/
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Technological unemployment
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/
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Technological unemployment
http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/05/khosla-explains-his-robots-replacing-doctors-comment-and-goes-on-the-hunt-for-data-scientists/
“By 2025, 80% of the functions doctors do will be done much
better and much more cheaply by machines & algorithms”
– Vinod Khosla
“80% of doctors will be replaced by technology”
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Drawbacks to relying on technology 1. The underlying technology may be harder than expected
E.g. nuclear fusion; links DNA <-> disease; battery life; geo-engineering
2. Sometimes the technology is a side-show Beware “techno-solutionism” when changes in social policy would be better
3. Technology is a two-edged sword Authoritarian control; cyber-warfare; SIMAD
4. The “abundance” is subject to uneven “spread” Disproportionate rewards to marketplace winners (“winner takes all”) Technological unemployment (human workers displaced by robots)
5. Solutions involve value-chain cooperation, which may not occur Vested interests among existing marketplace winners, legislators E.g. struggles of electric car producers; patient-driven healthcare; oil
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2014
2025
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Changing mindsets
http://www.heaven-speaks.com/bayside_test_tube_babies.html
“It is an abomination in the eyes of God for man in his arrogance and pride to seek to create the living being. What he is creating is a soulless monster, a being of destruction for all that it will meet. I say 'it', for it is not truly a human being but a 'thing'!”
– Our Lady, July 25, 1978
Opposition from politicians too
And from fellow scientists
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19537-test-tube-baby-pioneer-wins-medicine-nobel.html
Request for funding was denied by the UK's Medical Research Council
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Changing mindsets
http://www.heaven-speaks.com/bayside_test_tube_babies.html
“It is an abomination in the eyes of God for man in his arrogance and pride to seek to create the living being. What he is creating is a soulless monster, a being of destruction for all that it will meet. I say 'it', for it is not truly a human being but a 'thing'!”
– Our Lady, July 25, 1978
Opposition from politicians too
And from fellow scientists
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19537-test-tube-baby-pioneer-wins-medicine-nobel.html
Request for funding was denied by the UK's Medical Research Council
@dw2
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Changing mindsets (2) • The proper role of business and finance • The idea that humans are inherently selfish, lazy,
irredeemably competitive, and need the pressures of a “tough love” market economy to thrive – A thriving de-centralised “collaborative commons” exists
alongside the market economy: Wikipedia, open-source software, voluntary sector, community self-help…
• The idea that businesses are inherently selfish, aggrandising, short-term focused – “Conscious capitalism” shows how businesses can be strong
forces for benefit of whole society, with multiple stakeholders – In at least some cases
Employees
Customers
Suppliers
Community
Investors
Environment
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Conscious capitalism?
http://www.consciouscapitalism.org/
http://www.lyndagratton.com/
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“The business of business is business”
“There is one and only one social responsibility of business – to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits”
– Milton Friedman, 1970
http://www.colorado.edu/studentgroups/libertarians/issues/friedman-soc-resp-business.html http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/photocredit/achievers/fri0-006
“The most influential economist of the second half of the 20th century…possibly of all of it” – http://www.economist.com/node/8313925
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“The dumbest idea in the world” “Shareholder value is the dumbest idea in the world”
– Jack Welch, 2009 (former CEO, GE)
http://listphobia.com/2011/12/06/top-10-business-leaders-of-the-world/
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/mar2009/db20090316_630496.htm
“Any fool can just deliver in the short term by squeezing, squeezing, squeezing… you have to do both [short-term and long-term]… You'll see everyone win… “Employees will benefit from job security and better rewards. Customers will benefit from better products or services. Communities will benefit because successful companies and their employees give back. And obviously, shareholders will benefit because they can count on companies who deliver on both their short-term commitments and long-term vision.”
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The need for inclusivity Capitalism is at risk of destroying itself unless bankers realise they have an obligation to create a fairer society, the Bank of England governor has warned...
Speaking at a City conference, the Bank’s governor warned that there was a growing sense that the basic social contract at the heart of capitalism was breaking down amid rising inequality.
“We simply cannot take the capitalist system, which produces such plenty and so many solutions, for granted. Prosperity requires not just investment in economic capital, but investment in social capital.”
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/27/capitalism-critique-bank-of-england-carney
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The purpose of business Purpose
At [company] we are committed to improving the quality of life of the communities we serve. We do this by striving for leadership and global competitiveness in the business sectors in which we operate.
Our practice of returning to society what we earn evokes trust among consumers, employees, shareholders and the community. We are committed to protecting this heritage of leadership with trust through the manner in which we conduct our business.
http://www.tata.com/aboutus/articlesinside/Values-and-purpose
Founded 1868
Philanthropic initiatives since 1892
Introduced 8 hour working day in 1912
Indian Institute of Science set up in Bangalore, 1911
Trusts receive 66% of group profits
Isn’t that naïve?
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2014
2025
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Obstacles to collaboration 1. Overwhelming differences in dominant values
E.g. if entrenched opposition to female education / “Western values”
2. Blindness to what is good for us Lack of awareness; cognitive biases
3. Distortions by the environment / system we live within
Advertising raises our interests in things not actually very good for us
“Keeping up with the Joneses”
News stories hostile to “the enemy”
4. Lack of compelling shared positive vision
Especially with failure of religions / philosophies
Education Peer Reviews
Transhumanism
New train of thought
TZM
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• Looking for fundamental causes and solutions – unwilling to accept surface explanations
• Forceful challenges to prevailing assumptions about markets, business and finance
• Engaging, thought-provoking videos (and other comms)
Evaluating the ‘new train of thought’
Pluses Questions
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Page 48 Zeitgeist Day 2013, Main Event, LA, CA, USA - TZMOfficialChannel
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• Looking for fundamental causes and solutions – unwilling to accept surface explanations
• Forceful challenges to prevailing assumptions about markets, business and finance
• Engaging, thought-provoking videos (and other comms)
• Huge bottom-up enthusiasm
• Open to collaboration
• Needs a transition plan – a roadmap to the future
• Money is likely to continue to exist for the foreseeable future
• Rational resource management, for all goods, is some way off into the future
• Over-demonising business and finance: many TZM critiques miss the mark
• Pursuit of the “great” may miss opportunities for “good” incremental steps
Evaluating the ‘new train of thought’
Pluses Questions
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Vision: Freedom to fulfil potential “Human beings should be free…”
Free from limitations,
Free from death,
Free from gravity,
Free from biology.
https://twitter.com/anderssandberg/status/346391735003389953
Dmitry Itskov, closing remarks
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The biggest killers?
Dr. Felipe Sierra, Director of the Division of Aging Biology at the National Institute on Aging, discusses the Trans-NIH GeroScience Interest Group
http://youtu.be/xI38YRz1bbQ
Stroke
Cancer
Heart disease
Diabetes
Pulmonary disease
HIV/AIDS
Parkinson’s
Menopause
Arthritis
Alzheimer’s
Asthma
Kidney disease
AGING
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Stroke
Cancer
Heart disease
Diabetes
Pulmonary disease
HIV/AIDS
Parkinson’s
Menopause
Arthritis Alzheimer’s
Asthma
Kidney disease
AGING
Proteostasis
Adaptation to stress
Regeneration from stem cells
Inflammation
Macromolecular damage
Metabolism
Epigenetics and regulatory RNA
The biggest killer?
Dr. Felipe Sierra, Director of the Division of Aging Biology at the National Institute on Aging, discusses the Trans-NIH GeroScience Interest Group
http://youtu.be/xI38YRz1bbQ
@dw2
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Changing mindsets (3) • Aging is natural, inevitable, and not to be challenged
• “Natural” is always good, synthetic is always bad
• You can’t do better than God
• You can’t do better than natural selection
• It’s inevitable than biological organisms grow old & die
• Society depends upon people growing old & dying
• A world with super-longevity, super-intelligence, and super-happiness would be a kind of hell
• Such a world is at least 100 years into the future
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“The six epochs of evolution”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNkW353QkxU
Channel: Jason Silva
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Technology as main driver for change
Technology acceleration
Engineering solutions
Scientific enquiry
Critical thinking
Global education
Positive feedback networks
Transhumanism
TZM, Social
Futurism Positive
feedback
cycle
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Two ways to focus improvements
Quality of life
TZM, Social futurism
Quality of life
Quality of life
TODAY
Number of people
Transhumanism
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Why transhumanism?
Quality of life
“Because it’s there”
“Next step in global evolution”
“Be the best that you can be”
By being smarter, we can see more easily how to ensure everyone can benefit
We will have better tools than existing market economics, tribal politics, medieval philosophies…
TZM, Social futurism
Quality of life
Transhumanism
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Why TZM / Social futurism?
Quality of life
If we fail to address the growing social pains of inequality and decline of opportunity…
If we fail to avert potential imminent societal collapses… (finance / environment / energy…)
The societal foundations for transhumanism may disappear We need to pursue both
TZM, Social futurism
Quality of life
Transhumanism
@dw2
Page 59 Setting the scene David Wood, Mark Stevenson, Rohit Talwar Re-designing medicine and healthcare Maneesh Juneja, Sonia Contera, Peter Morgan / Aubrey de Grey Re-designing Artificial Intelligence Calum Chace, Martin Dinov & Elias Rut Re-designing society Freemavens / Simon Bransfield-Garth, Anders Sandberg, M Amon Twyman, Ben McLeish Re-designing humanity David Pearce, Zoltan Istvan, Natasha Vita-More, David Levy, Andrew Vladimirov What’s next? Michael Nuschke, Alez Zhavoronkov, Riva-Melissa Tez, Victor Anderson, Jerome Glenn
Technology, Transhumanism, and TZM
Three keys to a radically better world?
Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists
David Wood @dw2