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The Unknown The Unknown And The Unexpected:And The Unexpected:Climate Change And Climate Change And The Pacific NorthwestThe Pacific Northwest
Mark R. AbbottCollege of Oceanic and Atmospheric SciencesOregon State University
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OverviewOverview
Global scale climate
Modeling and climate
Climate and the Northwest
New ways to approach the unknowable
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Historical Records of CO2Historical Records of CO2
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CO2 And TemperatureCO2 And Temperature
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20,000 years ago 2200? ( + 5 meters)
Past And Future Rise In Sea Past And Future Rise In Sea Level Level
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Timeline Of Climate Timeline Of Climate Model DevelopmentModel Development
Figure courtesy W. Washington, NCAR
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Impacts Of Spatial Resolution On The Impacts Of Spatial Resolution On The Types Of Terrain That Are Included In Types Of Terrain That Are Included In ModelsModels
Figure courtesy S. Hostetler, USGS/OSU
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What Was Predicted For Last What Was Predicted For Last Winter?Winter?
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What Actually Happened?What Actually Happened?
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An Impact Of Climate An Impact Of Climate Change?Change?
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Climate Climate Change Change Impacts Impacts Depend On Depend On VariabilityVariabilityVariability may
have more human impact than mean stateExamples
European heat wave
Niger drought
Figure courtesy A. Mix, OSU
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The Five “Currencies” The Five “Currencies” Of The Earth SystemOf The Earth System
Energy
Water
Carbon
Money
Information
Next-generation Earth system models must account for all of these currencies
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Innovation In Earth System Innovation In Earth System Models The “Old” WayModels The “Old” Way
Increased temporal and spatial resolutionData assimilation and near real-time observatories and sensor networksIncreasing coupling of components and increasing richness of modelsImpact on HPC requirements has been a focus on increased capacities for computation as well as on post-production analysesCan the community obtain the HPC resources it needs in a rapidly-changing market?
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New Demands On Climate New Demands On Climate ModelsModels
Not just increased resolution and more physicsRisk assessments and scenarios
Impacts of climate change on human migration patterns
Rare but high impact scenarios
Feedbacks between climate and socioeconomic processes
Past as a poor predictor of the futureNeed to create diverse and resilient knowledge networks to develop and test scenariosAdaptive management rather than rigid protocols
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System ArchitecturesSystem Architectures
The Intel and AMD ApproachGeneral purpose systems for a wide array of applications
6 month technology cycle
Science community started rolling their own clusters because of lower costs
CPU CPU
MPI
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Increasingly Complex Increasingly Complex ArchitecturesArchitectures
Intel and AMD stalled at 3 GHz because of packaging issues (i.e., heat dissipation)
Now going multi-core at lower frequency
Increasingly complex programming modelLow efficiencies because fundamental models require lots of shared memory (and hence message passing)
Focus on communications infrastructureHard to take generalized commodity systems and support innovationNew architectures (CPU/GPU) now entering the fray
Core 1Core 2Core 3Core 4
Core 1Core 2Core 3Core 4
MPI
OpenMPOpenMP
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Is This Innovation?Is This Innovation?
Community modelsGood for production runs and post-production analyses
Good for education
Not so good for adding new components and new physics and biogeochemistry
Supercomputer centersGood for production runs of very large models
Not especially efficient for exploration of new models and new approaches
New architectures make it increasingly difficult to code
We need more than a big data center with VT 100 terminals
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Shifting The Context For ITShifting The Context For IT
Transforming our workflowsReal-time, continuous, adaptive
Shifting the balance of data and knowledgeCollaborative, networked, interdisciplinary
Not just bigger and fasterA collection of adaptable, dynamic services
Increased customization in a commodity world
HPC-enabled components live everywhere, not just data centersEnd-to-end, user experience is critical
Not just in the office or lab
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A New Approach?A New Approach?
Overcoming language and cultural barriers to enable collaborationMerging data streams and sensorsDeveloping and testing models
Seeking out underlying and emergent rules to make projections and predictions
This looks more like a network gaming metaphorNew capabilities include
Preservation, provenance, collaboration, accountability, and reputation
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Shifting The CommunityShifting The Community
From data delivery to knowledge servicesThe Wikipedia model for smart mobs
Networks of potential resources
Innovation will come from the fringes
More “democracy” in the systemWhat used to be expensive and complex is now available to everyone
Need for standard, open frameworksSimple and extensible
Not driven solely by science requirements
But still require enormous amount of work
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ConvergencesConvergences
New IT capabilities will bring more integration among diverse communities, data sets, and models
New demands for climate models and climate services will require these capabilities
Need a resilient approach to the complexities and uncertainties of the future
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© 2007 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries. The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation.
Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN
THIS PRESENTATION.
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Microsoft Research Faculty Summit 2007