Christophe PILLOT [email protected]
+33(0)1 4778 4600
Battery Market Development for
Consumer Electronics, Automotive,
and Industrial: Materials
Requirements and Trends
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18, Xining, China
Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2014 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market 2014 - 2025 • Forecasts & conclusions
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2014
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
2
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ion
HEV
po
we
red
by
LIB
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007
REALITY
AAB (2012)
AVICENNE 2007-2012
ROLAND BERGER (2011)
IIT (MARCH 2010)
ROLAND BERGER (2012)
DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)
IIT (MARCH 2011)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
3
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2014
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
170 M Portable
PCs
230 M Tablets
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2014
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2000 2014
Ton
s o
f ca
tho
de
/ Ye
ar
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000 2014
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
4
2015: Estimations Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
5
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
2015: Estimations
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19
90
20
00
20
05
2010
20
13
20
14
20
15
Bill
ion
US
$
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
60 BILLION US$ in 2014 – Pack level1
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014)
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19
90
20
00
20
05
20
10
2013
20
14
20
15
Bill
ion
US$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
E-BIKES
POWER TOOLS
PORTABLE
SLI
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…
PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,
POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools
INDUSTRIAL
• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others
• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,
AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV
OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
2015: Estimations
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION
Portable
Automotive
SLI
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000Others
SLI
Automotive
Portable
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
7
Battery market in 2014 (M$)
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Lead Acid LIB
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
US $ 20
Billion for
“other”
applications
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
LI-ION IN 2014
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
8
(1) 2015 estimation data
(2) Cell level
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 00020
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
15
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders
Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
E-bikes Others
5 400 M cells –46 000 MWh
13 600 M$ (2)
CAGR 2004/2014
+21 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
LI-ION IN 2014
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
CAGR 2004/2014
+20 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
9
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
M $
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
M $
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Automotives Tablets Power tools
Camcorders Digital camera MP3
Games E-Bikes Others
5 250 M cells – 45 000 MWh
13 300 M$ (2)
(1) 2015 estimation data
(2) Cell level
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
10
BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING
DRASTICALLY
In 10 Years 80% price decreasing
despite a fluctuating Co price
Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)
18650 oversupply ratio is
decreasing thanks to TESLA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Ove
r su
pp
ly R
atio
M c
ells
/Y
ear
Standard Demand TESLA
Production Capacity Oversupply ratio
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
M c
ells
/m
on
th
BAK
ATL
Lishen
E-One
LG
SDI
MAXELL
SONY
PANASONIC
SANYO
Production capacity 2009/2011:
from 150 to 250 M cells/month
Note- Q4 2014: Cylindrical: 0,17 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,3$/Wh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND
11
CATHODE
105 OOO T in 2014
Revenues: 2,5 B$
CAGR 04/14: +16%
ANODE
57 000 T
Revenues: 0,8 B$
CAGR 03/13: +14%
ELECTROLYTE
44 000 T
Revenues: 0,68 B$
CAGR 04/14 : 20%
SEPARATOR
695 M m²
Revenues: 1,15 B$
CAGR 04/14 : 18%
CELL
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
13,6 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
ANCILLARY
Revenues: 0,7 B$
PACK
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
19,6 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
BINDER
7 100 Tons
Revenues: 0,2 B$
CAGR 08/13 : 15%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS
BY CHEMISTRY
Cathode active materials for LIB
in Tons, 2000-2014 (Demand)
12
(…)
LEADERS:
Internal 2% Nichia
12%
Umicore 15%
B&M 7%
Easpring 6%
Reshine 10%
L&F 14%
Other China 13%
Others 3%
Shan Shan 9%
PULEAD 9%
LCO – >45 KT (2014) NMC1 – > 35 KT (2014)
Nichia 11%
Umicore 24%
Others 5%
Internal 11%
L&F 6%
ShanShan 8%
Reshine 3%
Other China 8%
TODA 4%
SUMITOMO 16%
NKS 4%
LMO – > 18 KT (2014) LFP – > 10 KT (2014)
Nichia Corp 7%
Chinese local 26%
Nippon denko
8% JGC 17%
Shan Shan 9%
Reshine 8%
Others 6%
Yuan Yuan 4%
Qiannyun 15%
INTERNAL 29%
CLARIANT 8%
ALEEES 10% STL
11%
Pulead 13%
Zhuoneng 6%
BTR 2%
Others 21%
1- Including NCA
SUPPLY
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
200
020
01
200
220
03
2004
200
520
06
200
720
08
200
920
10
201
120
12
201
320
14
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
FORECASTS 2000-2025
Cathode active materials
2000-2025 - Tons
Cathode active materials in
2014: > 100 000 Tons
13
ASSUMPTIONS:
Portable devices: 2013-2025: +11% per year in volume
HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB
P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB
EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB
Industrial & stationary 2013-2025: +16% per year
Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)
LFP part could be higher thanks to explosion of Chinese EV market
LCO 36%
NMC 25%
NCA 9%
LMO 20%
LFP 10%
Cathode active materials in
2025: > 300 000 Tons
LCO 26%
NMC 25%
NCA 14%
LMO 9%
LFP 26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
LCO NMC NCA
LMO LFP China (%)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
14
ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS
> 55 000 TONS IN 2014
LIB Anode Materials
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Source: Sanyo, March 2011
LIB Anode market, (Tons)
LIB Anode Materials
Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
To
ns
LTO
Si or Sn Type
Amorphous Carbon
Meso-Phase
Artificial Graphite
Natural Graphite
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
ANODE FOR LIB IN 2014
15
Natural graphite become a commodity
Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads
Source: Hitachi Chemical
(…)
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Hard Carbon
Soft Carbon
Graphite
Capacity (/g)
400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g
Capacity (/cc)
++ 0 +
Power ++ + 0
Stability ++ + 0
Cyclability ++ + 0
Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,
cellulose, wood,
coconuts…
Petroleum coke
Natural or petroleum
coke
COST 2012->2020
30 -> 25 $/kg
25->20 $/kg
15 -> 10 $/kg
SUPPLIERS KUREHA
HITACHI HITACHI BTR
& many others
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SONY
PANASONIC
SDI
LGC
BYD
Lishen
Maxell
ATL
BAK
A123
TOSHIBA
Others
ARTIFICIAL
MCMB
NATURAL
Amorphous
METAL
LTO
Natural Graphite
67%
Artificial Graphite
24%
MCMB 2% Amorphous
5%
Si or Sn Type 1%
LTO 1%
Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2014)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
SEPARATOR MARKET
MAJOR PLAYERS
Separator market in volume (Mm²)
by suppliers – CAGR 04/14: +16%
Separators market shares in 2014 in
volume – > 650 M m²
16 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
ASAHI
CELGARD
TORAY
UBE SK Sumitomo Jinhui
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Mm
²
In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy
Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore’s battery
separator business
ASAHI 25%
TONEN 21%
SUMITOMO 5%
ENTEK 3%
SK 12% Jinhui
2% TDK 2%
Fengfan 1%
Other Wet 3%
CELGARD 11%
UBE 5%
Green 3% Senior
4% Other Dry 3%
Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Green Senior
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS
44 000 TONS IN 2014
LIB electrolyte market, Tons,
CAGR 2004/2014: +23%
LIB electrolyte supplier, market
share in 2014
17
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Ton
s
Cellular Portable PC TabletsPower tools E-bikes HEVPHEV EV Others
Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang
JINNIU
UBE 4%
Mitsubishi Chem 13%
In-house 9%
Tomiyama 3%
PANAX-ETEC 8% GTHR
14%
Mitsui 3%
Jinniu 8%
Cap Chem 15%
ShanShan 8%
Soulbrain 5%
Tinci 6%
Others 4%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2005-2014 Electrolyte maker sales 2005-2014
18
Ube
Mitsubishi
In-House
Tomiyama
PANAX (2)
GTHR
Mitsui
BASF (Merck, Novolyte)
Jinniu
Capchem
Shanshan
Soulbrain
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
2012
201
3
201
4
Ton
s
Ube Mitsubishi In-House
Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong
Mitsui BASF (Merck, Novolyte) Jinniu
Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain
(2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010 (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
19
CELLULAR PHONES
FORECASTS 2010-2025
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000 OTHERS
INDIA
ASIA
CHINA
JAPAN
EUROPE
USA
Cellular phones demand (M Units)
CAGR 2010-2025: +6%
Cellular Phones market Drivers
Emergent market
Renewal ratio increase
Smartphone penetration increase
LIB cells for cellular phones
trends
Laminates ratio increase
Increase of Thickness
Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
LIB cells demand 2014-2025
Polymer penetration: 50% -> 75%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Polymer
Prismatic
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
Cyl. 25%
Pris. 25%
Lam. 50%
LIB cell format (Volume) 2014
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
20
PORTABLE PCS
FORECASTS 2010-2025
Portable PCs market trends
Mature market stable or decreasing
Growth driven by Emerging market
Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))
ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012
(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy
LIB cells for portable PCs trends
Thinner cells
Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025
> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate
2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
LIB cells demand 2014-2025
Polymer penetration: 20% -> 40%
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Laminate
Prismatic
Cylindrical
Cyl. 80%
Pris. 1%
Lam. 19%
LIB cell format (Volume) 2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
Emerging
Mature
Portable PCs demand (M Units)
2014-2025 – Almost stable
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE
ELECTRONIC DEVICES
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by
application (3C)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
by form factor (3C)
21
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/yea
r Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)
(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
CAGR 14-25: + 10%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2000
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015
2020
2025
MW
h
Others
Household
Toys
MP3
Video Games
Digital Camera
Camcorders
Cordless Phones
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
0
50
100
150
Million barrel per day
Price of the WTI1 barrel of oil,
US $
MAJOR DRIVER: CO2 regulation
worldwide: From 2013 to 2014
Oil price decrease but HEV sales
increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30%
and EV by 60%
22
WHY X-EV ?
Petroleum consumption worldwide
1960-2030
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
19
73
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15 G
aso
line
Pri
ce –
US$
/ G
allo
n
Cru
de
Oil
Pri
ce -
US
$ /
Bar
rel
Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2012 2015 2020
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n (
g/km
)
Europe USA Japan China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014
2 M HEV
HEV sold per year, M units,
worldwide, 2000 - 2014
Penetration of hybrids in the
global sales, 2000-2014
23
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Mill
ion
TOYOTA OTHERS
USA
JAPON
EUROPE 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
200
020
01
200
220
03
200
420
05
200
620
07
200
820
09
201
020
11
201
220
13
201
4
Pen
etra
tio
n o
f h
ybri
ds
in t
he
glo
bal
e s
ales
Growth 2013-2014: +5% From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
24
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
P-HEV sales
Others
Volvo
Mitsubishi
Ford
Toyota
GM Volt,Ampera 0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EV sales
Others
CHINA
VW
BMW
Honda
Toyota
Tesla
Renault
Smart
Ford
MITSUBISHI
NISSAN
US 41%
JAPON 25%
EUROPE 22%
CHINE 5%
Others 7% US
25%
JAPAN 11%
EUROPE 26%
CHINA 31%
OTHERS 7%
P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2014 (YEARLY)
+28%
+58%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
25
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)
< 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)
TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015
0 2000 4000 6000
PANASONICNISSAN Motor US
SonyBYD
LG ChemJCI
A123SanyoEner1
Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam
GS YUASASB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky
LG ChemNissan - Renault (UK)
ToshibaBlue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen
BAKSAFT US
SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC JaponNEC Tokin
Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy
Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH
TESLA (2014-2017)BYD (2013 - 2015)ATL (2014 - 2017)
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015
2014 – 2017 TESLA, ATL, BYD
Investments: 150 $ / kWh
TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 2015
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
SAFETY ISSUES
26
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects
Bac
kg
rou
nd
M
ob
ile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
Au
tom
oti
ve
A
irc
raft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
27
Some technologies are already out of the game due to
stability issues
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
28
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV
29 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
€ 8,250 -€ 18,100
€ 5,500 -€ 8,000
€ 50 -€ 300
€ 1,000 -€ 2,500
€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -
€ 400
HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100
€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -
€ 1,250
€ 150 -€ 350
€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -
€ 500
€ 1,500 -€ 3,000
Charger
DC/DCconverter
InverterRectifier
GeneratorInverter
HV battery
cell Packaging material
LV batterypack
CoolingSyst
HVCables &
Connectors
Batt.MagtSyst
Batt.Packaging
Manuf.
Overall
HV batt. CELL
for EV
0 €
2 000 €
4 000 €
6 000 €
8 000 €
10 000 €
12 000 €
Power Elec
Pack Manufacturing
BMS
Thermal Mgmt + packaging
Cell manu
Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf
HEV P-HEV EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS
30 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
NISSAN LEAF
GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5
BOLLORE BLUE CAR
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2014-2020
LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)
(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
31
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year
(1) Active materials only
2015* 2020* 2014*
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
CellManufacturing
OtherMaterials
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode
Cathode0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014 2015 2020
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Warranty
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode (1)
Cathode (1)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS
0,9
2 2,2
3,2
5
0,135 0,17
0,4
0,65
0,25 0,35
1
1,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2014 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
car
s
EV
P-HEV
HEV
S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV market
forecasts up to 2025
S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV market
forecasts up to 2025
32
Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could
change the game
0,9
1,9 2,1
3,2
5
0,13 0,16
0,38
0,62
0,17 0,27
0,75
1,1
0,3
1
1
1,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2014 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
car
s
EV in China
P-HEV in China
HEV in China
EV
P-HEV
HEV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)
CAGR 2014-2025: +16% / S2:+22%
Total battery demand (MWh)
CAGR 2014-2025: +11% / S2: +13%
33
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025M
Wh
NiCd NiMH except AutoLIB except Auto NiMH for HEVLIB for HEV LIB for P-HEVLIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
S2 (China Explosion)
Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change
the game
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Micro-hybrid batteries
34
Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)
LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)
Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
OptimisticScenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Battery Advanced lead acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($) 300 3000
Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020
35 3.5
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)
Much more impact on CO2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
35
Stand
ard
Lead acid
Batteries
2010 2015 2020 AFTER
Li-ion
batteries
NiM
H b
atte
ries
STANDARD CAR
88.5% EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Ad
vanced
Lead acid
NiM
H
STANDARD CAR
< 44%
MICRO HYBRID
> 50%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
“OTHER APPLICATIONS”
10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Lead Acid LIB
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
36
Battery market in 2012 (M$)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013
For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries
1- Pack level
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Lead Acid LIB
Battery market in 2020 (M$)
> U
S$ 1
0 B
> U
S$ 7
B
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS
Li-ion cell market (B$) Li-ion Pack market1 (B$)
37
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical…
S2: Chinese EV market explosion
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025
Others (2)
Automotive
Portable
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025
Others (2)
Automotive
Portable
Portable: from 29 to 65 GWh
Automotive: from 10 to 60 GWh / S2: 100 GWh
Others: from 7 to 32 GWh
2014 -2025
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
TAKEAWAYS
38
Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market
Battery Market 2010-2025
CAGR = +10%
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2025
2000 2010 2020 2025
MW
h Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%)LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+11%)Others
25 B$
54B$
64 B$
83 B$
> 100 B$
280 GWh
380 GWh
575 GWh
775 GWh
14
12
52
32
(CAGR 2014-2025)
16
(Pack level) 4,3
60B$
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
June 15-18,
Xining, China
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
39