CESCO 2015
The new metals age: the place of copper in the century ahead Jean-Sébastien Jacques
14 April 2015
Oyu Tolgoi, Mongolia
Copper climate
2
Copper price (LME cash, cents/lb)
Copper cost curve (C1 + sustaining, cents/lb)
Chinese GDP (Y/Y % change)
Wood Mackenzie refined copper balance (kt)
Source: Wood Mackenzie copper mine cost service, Q1 2015 dataset
Source: Wood Mackenzie copper market service, Q1 2015 dataset Source: Global Insight
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Down 18%
since start of
2014
Down 40%
2011 peak
0
100
200
300
400
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2011 2013 2015
Down 10%
since 2011
Down 15% from
peak in 2013
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
137
592
235 151 131
485
697
(27)
(235) (285)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population growth and rising incomes in emerging regions will drive further growth into the next decade
4
The rise of the global middle class
led by emerging Asia
Growing electricity requirements in large emerging
markets will continue to support demand
Source: OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No. 285
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2009 2020 2030
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
ns)
North America Europe
Central & South America Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific Percentage
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
UK USA ChinaJapan South Korea GermanyRussia Brazil India
Per
cap
ita e
lectr
icit
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n
(KW
h/c
ap
ita)
1970
-2012
GDP/Capita 2005 US$
5
Rio Tinto’s 4+2 copper portfolio
Four brownfield + two greenfield world-class copper projects
Kennecott Utah, USA
Resolution Arizona, USA
Escondida Chile
La Granja Peru
Grasberg Indonesia
Oyu Tolgoi Mongolia