Download - The Future of Waste Management “Matrix Reloaded” Antonis Mavropoulos CEO D-Waste [email protected]
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• Current SWM • 2050 forecast• Reshaping the future
Contents
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1. Current waste management
MSW between 1,6-2 billion tons/year
Population & GDP/cap growth much more waste
Source: Veolia, Cyclope (2009) From waste to resource: an abstract of world waste survey 2009, Paris. [Available: http://www.uncrd.or.jp/env/spc/docs/plenary3/PS3-F-Veolia_Hierso-Print%20abstract.pdf]
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• 70% to dumpsites & landfills• 19% recycled or recovered• 11% energy recovery• 40 million people industry – around 50% ISR• 0.46-0.66 billion tons (30%) of uncollected
MSW/year
Current SWM
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Urbanization is 30% faster than sanitation
Urban Rural0
200
400
600
800
1000
12001089
370
813
450
Population gaining access to improved sanitation compared to population growth, urban and rural, worldwide, 1990-2008
Population growth 1990-2008 Population gaining access 1990-2008
Source: WHO & UNICEF (2010) Progress on Sanitation & Drinking Water: 2010 Update, France. Available: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241563956_eng_full_text.pdf
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How many people without waste management ?
What means “access to waste management services”?
Recent estimations : almost 52% of the global population
More than 3,6 billion in 2008 or everyone who lives with GNI less than 1200 -1600 $ / year
Source: www.d-waste.com
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2. 2050 forecast
Population growth almost by 50% (baseline 2006), until 2050
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Economy growth
Global GDP growth almost by 320%, until 2050
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Cities growth 2007 - 2025
Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011 67%
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Rough estimates (BaU)
Source: D-waste “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September))
GDP POPULATION gdp/cap MSW produced MSW produced /cap
0.00%
50.00%
100.00%
150.00%
200.00%
250.00%
300.00%
350.00%320.00%
41.34%
197.16%
138.01%
68.40%
Changes 2006-2050 with BaU scenario
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Source: D-waste , “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September)
2006 20500.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1.80
4.28
0.27 0.46
MSW production 2006-2050
MSW produced (billion tons/year) MSW produced per capita (tons/year)
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Uncertainties management
20.0% 60.0% 20.0%
3.789 4.444
3.03.23.43.63.84.04.24.44.64.85.05.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Global MSW generation (billion tonnes) / 2050
Global MSW generation (billion tonnes) / 2050
Minimum 3.1913Maximum 5.0581Mean 4.1055Std Dev 0.3657Values 500
Source: D-waste , “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September)
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Urbanization – sanitation gap
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• It is an elementary component of health protection
• It is a key – issue of environmental quality• It is a corner-stone of governance• It affects directly the daily life• It creates important social and economic
impacts
We can’t afford going like this…
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WASTE MANAGEMENT AS A HUMAN RIGHT
Sound Waste Management is a human right. It is not a privilege. It must not be depended on personal income, race, gender or national discriminations. It must be easily accessible, affordable and suitable to local conditions. We need…
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3. Rethinking urban SWM• Focus on Global Cities• Interface of their countries with global economy &
culture• Parts of the resource management global network• “Arrival” cities• They are Global Risk Areas due to their:
– High population density - pandemics– High integration and interconnection with the rest of the
world– High vulnerability to natural disasters
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Systems far from equilibrium
• Drivers of spatial growth: randomness, physical constraints, natural advantage, comparative advantage
• Spatial growth is not predictable • There are physical & managerial limits • Growth can be simulated using epidemics or
diffusion models• Global Cities operate in three rather than two
dimensions• Infrastructure comes always late
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We need new descriptions
• INPUT & OUTPUT• Complex systems,
out of equilibrium• Patchworks: the
kingdom of non-uniformity
• SWM as a Human Right is the canvas required to address urban SWM
ENGINEERING
LOGISTICS
RecyclingPrevention
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WE CAN’T AFFORD WAITING FOR THE INFRASTRUCTURE – WE NEED CHANGE NOW. WE NEED TO MANAGE THE HUMAN NETWORK OF WASTE PRODUCERS AND GUARANTEE THE RIGHT TO SOUND WASTE MANAGEMENT FOR EVERYONE
We need behavioral change through better interaction, we need to develop local dynamics and neighborhood management, we need new interactive tools and practices and minimum standards
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1. Adding to current systems modern technology and interconnectivity’s potential
2. Advancing current systems by stimulating behavioral change through human agents
3. Both ways combined
Stimulating Change
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Welcome to the Interconnected World
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A new landscape
North America Oceania / Australia
Europe Latin America / Carib.
Middle East Asia Africa0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
78.67%
68.57%
61.40%
39.53%35.65%
26.21%
13.49%
Internet Penetration rates per region (percentage %)
China United States
India Japan Brazil Germany Russia United Kingdom
France Nigeria0
100
200
300
400
500
600
485
245
100 99.1875.98 65.13 59.7 51.44 45.26 43.98
Internet users in 2011 (in million)
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• Photos and location service• Software to manage the data • Zoning• Algorithms to provide
conclusions• 100 days results
Mobile governance to improve SWM
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Big Data systems: atlas.d-waste.com
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Global SWM mapping
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Open source cooperative design
Client request
Experts’ response
Product design
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• Bottom – up approach: develop local material supply chains that contribute to recycling and recovery
• Adaptiveness: provide local solutions adapted to city’s patchwork based on market dynamics
• Interconnections: improve systemic behavior allowing information flow within their network
• Feedback: create a unique picture of city’s waste management
Stimulating behavioral change
ISR role is central in such an approach
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• ISR are delivering recycling and waste management activities in order to fulfill their elementary human rights
• In that view, ISR are the key-link to introduce Waste Management as a Human Right
• In many cases the only immediately available option is to improve ISR contribution and performance
ISR as the key-link
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• The current 3.5 bn people without elementary waste management will be definitely much more in the near future
• The BaU scenario will create huge health and environmental impacts that sooner or later will have global dimensions
• We need massive collaboration to overcome the technology and poverty barriers
• We need new business models to utilize the modern technologies and the increasing interconnectivity
Instead of conclusions
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THE OTHER SIDE OF CITIESThe future is here…
ASK – JOIN – PUBLISHwww.d-waste.com