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Bob Costello Chief Economist & Senior Vice President
American Trucking Associations
The Future of the Trucking Industry
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Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027 & ATA
Historical Tonnage by Mode
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Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
Distribution of Tonnage by Mode 2015
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Tonnage by Mode - 2015
Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
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Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
Distribution of Tonnage by Mode: 2015
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Growth in Tonnage Total Increase from 2015 to 2027
Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
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Distribution of Tonnage by Mode: 2015 vs 2027
Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
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Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027 & ATA
Tonnage by Mode
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Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
Tonnage Growth 2015 to 2027 & Market Share in 2027
(Baseline Forecast)
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Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
Tonnage Growth 2015 to 2027 & Market Share in 2027
(Alternative Forecast #1)
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Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
Tonnage Growth 2015 to 2027 & Market Share in 2027
(Alternative Forecast #2)
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Non-Competitive Truck, 9.8
Competitive Truck Freight , 0.7
Competitive Rail Freight , 0.5
Non-Competitive Rail, 1.6
Billions of Tons
• Maximum competitive freight is 1.2 billion tons in a total market (truck and rail only) of 12.6 billion tons, or less than 10%. Competitive freight includes all freight traveling at least 500 miles, but excludes coal tonnage. There is a significant amount of time definite freight in this category that really isn’t competitive, but it is included. So in reality, the competitive market is even smaller than suggested here.
FACT: Trucks and Trains Compete on a Very Limited Basis
Source: ATA Analysis based on Commodity Flow Survey (US Census Bureau) data and US Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027
2015 Competitive Freight Among Truck and Rail Tonnage
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Autonomous Commercial Vehicles
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Thanks!
@ATAEconBob