The Future History of Artificial General Intelligence:

2010-2045

Dr. Ben GoertzelCEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC

CTO, Genescient Corp.Vice Chairman, Humanity+

External Research Professor, Xiamen UniversityAdvisor, Singularity Institute and Singularity University

2010

“Narrow AI”, rather than“Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI)

still dominates the AI field

Each “Narrow AI” program is (in the ideal case) highly competent at carrying out certain complex tasks in certain environments

In 2005, Biomind’s AI found a ~100% accurate predictor of Parkinson’s Disease based on

heteroplasmic mitochondrial mutations

Narrow AI helps fight disease

tumor suppression

heat shock (stress response)

metabolism

2009: Biomind AI infers aging networks from gene expression data from Genescient’s “Methuselah flies”

Narrow AI helps fight aging

2010: AGI is on the Rise

agi-conf.org/2010

AGI-11August 2011

Google CampusMountain View CA

late 2010

one practical approach to

advanced AGI:

OpenCog

At Xiamen University, OpenCog is being used to control a Nao robot

2010:The Robot Revolution

Begins

2020

2020:Rise of the

Robot Children

animal/childlike

AGI+

useful narrow AI =

useful early-stage AGI,

such as virtual AI scientists

2020:Rise of the

AI Scientists

DeclarativeProbabilistic

Logic Networks,concept

ProceduralMOSES

(probabilistic evolutionary

learning),

Sensoryhierarchy of

memory/processing

units

Episodicinternal world

simulation engine

Attentional/Intentionaleconomic attention networks,

A truly powerful artificial scientist will emerge from combining

childlike, commonsense-savvy AGI with multiple science-specific narrow-AI algorithms

one path to a powerful global brain: AGI + narrow-AI + humans + communication networks

2020:Emergence of

a more reflective,deliberative global brain

spanning AGIs,narrow AIs and humans

2030

2030:One Big

AI Network

2030:Jacked into

the AI Network

2040

Kurzweil projectstechnological Singularity

around 2045

Text

2010

http://opencogfoundation.org/