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The European [SHARE] Seismic Hazard Model: Genesis, Evolution and Key Aspects L. Danciu , J. Woessner, D. Giardini and the SHARE Consortium
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GSHAP
[1999]
SESAME
[2003]
European PSHA Model: Genesis
[2013]
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European PSHA Model: Goals Harmonize hazard assessment across na.onal borders
On data level, modeling level and procedural level
Create a community-‐based Cme-‐independent (rock) reference hazard model for the Euro-‐Mediterranean region Keep close connec.on to engineering requirements of EC8 and its future revision
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European PSHA Model: Goals
Hazard So@ware
“Black Box”
INPUT OUTPUT
“Easy Review” Box
Data
Interpreta.ons
Assump.ons
All steps of the seismic hazard assessment have to be:
• Validated
• Benchmarked • Reproducible All data is documented and open to access!
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Earthquake Catalog: SHEEC
Stucchi et al., 2012 (J. of Seismology) Grünthal et al., 2012 (J. of Seismology)
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SHEEC Completeness Super- Zones
M. Stucchi , A, Rovida G. Grünthal
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http://www.emidius.eu/SHEEC/
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Strategy for Mmax in Different Tectonic Regimes
C. Mele4, V. D’Amico (INGV)
EPRI approach
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Distribution of Mmax in Different Tectonic Regimes
C. MeleX, V. D’Amico (INGV)
EPRI approach
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Mmax spatial distribution
Highest Mmax
Lowest weight (w = 0.1)
Lowest Mmax
Highest weight (w = 0.5)
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Building the SHARE Source Model
TradiConal Area Source (AS) Model
Fault Source (FS) + Background (BG) Model
Smoothed Seismicity Model (Woo, 1996; Grünthal et al., in prep)
StochasCc Earthquake Source Model (Hiemer et al.; Woessner et al.; in prep.)
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SHARE Source Model – Logic Tree
TradiConal Area Source (AS) Model
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Area Source Model [As Model]: Crustal Sources
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As Model: Subduction Interface
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As Model: Subduction Interface
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Area Source Model: Crustal and Deep Sources As Model: Crustal + Subduction + Deep Seismicity
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As Model: Seismic Activity Computation
-‐2.5
-‐2.0
-‐1.5
-‐1.0
-‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
Log N
Mw
Data post 1800
Data post 1965
Best fit
Uncertainty (1)
Uncertainty (2)
b 0.953 0.916 0.878 0.84 0.802
5.731 0.009 0.027 0.028 0.010 0.001 A 5.426 0.020 0.073 0.096 0.043 0.006
5.121 0.021 0.089 0.147 0.085 0.015 4.842 0.015 0.049 0.100 0.073 0.017 4.563 0.002 0.012 0.030 0.028 0.008
A is number of events ≥ 0.0 Mw per year
Example: Corfu Island, Greece
Courtesy to R. Musson
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As Model : Summary of the Activity Parameters
Large spa*al varia*on on b-‐values within the same tectonic regime
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As Model: Fitting Results
The beauty
The ugly
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As Model: Fitting Results
200yrs
75 yrs
The dangerous
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As Model – Activity Adjustments • Expert Fiang
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As Model – Adjusted Activity Spatial Distribution
b-‐value spa*al varia*on was reduced
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As Model: PGA Hazard Map - PoEs10%50yrs
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SHARE Source Model Logic Tree
Fault Source (FS) + Background (BG) Model
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Faults & Background Source Model [FsFb Model]
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Faults & Background Source Model [FsFb Model]
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Faults & Background Source Model [FsFb Model]
AcCvity rates are calculated from geologic informaCon: • Slip rate • Fault length / aspect ratio • Maximum Magnitude
Recurrence Rate Model: • Fault Source (M ≥ 6)
Anderson & Luco (1983) Model 2:
• Background (M < 6.5): modeled like Area Source Model • b-value assumed to be equal on-/ off-fault
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FsFb Model: Activity Estimation
background faults
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FsFb Model: Activity Estimation (con.nue)
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FsFb Model: PGA Hazard Map 10%PoE 50yrs
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R. Basili et al 2013
hbp://diss.rm.ingv.it/share-‐edsf/
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SHARE Source Model Logic Tree
StochasCc Earthquake Source Model (Hiemer et al.; Woessner et al.; in prep.)
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Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
Seismicity Faults (SSZ)
Procedure
1. Calculate spatial location PDFs Smoothed Seismicity: PE Smoothed Faults: PF
2. Weighting Linear weighting according to
probabilities PF and PE
3. Calculate earthquake rate Only Seismicity: R=PE*N(MW=6.5) Only Faults: R=PF*N(MW=8.5)
Seismicity
Faults
Normalized Earthquake Rate
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Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
Optimize kernel using a CSEP likelihood tests Split catalog in learning and
target period Optimize on 5 year target
period Use best likelihood-value to
generate model rates
Learning Period Target Period
1000 2002 2007
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Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
S. Hiemer et al 2013
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Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
PGA Hazard Map 10%PoE 50yrs
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Ground Motion Prediction Equations [GMPEs]
Logic Tree
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Procedure to the SHARE-GMPE Logic Tree
Engineering requirements were (WP2) defined as constraint at the beginning of the project (a “wish list”)
Differences in coverage of magnitude – distance and frequency range poses challenges for hazard computation
Delavaud et al., 2012, J. Seis.
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Procedure to the SHARE-GMPE Logic Tree SHARE -‐ Strong Ground Mo.on Dataset
(Scherbaum et al. [2009]; Delavaud et al. [2009])
Experts Opin
ion
Data Driven
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SHARE - GMPE Logic Tree
Delavaud et al., 2012, J. Seis.
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SHARE Logic Tree Weights • Proposed weighting schemes for active shallow crust:!
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GMPEs Weighting Schemes Sensitivity"
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GMPEs Weighting Schemes Sensitivity"Percentage Difference Results:!• Area Source: !• The Percentage Difference (%) is within 5 to 11%!• Highest values when compared with WS7 !
WS6: WS7: AB2010(0.35) AB2010(0.10) CF2008(0.35) CF2008(0.40) Zhao06(0.10) Zhao06(0.10) CY2008(0.20) CY2008(0.40)
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Results
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Quality Checks
Moment comparisons to strain rate model for the single source models
CSEP rate forecast test vs. independent data of USGS / NEIC
Comparison to previous hazard assessments
Sensitivity analysis on Depth distribution Point source vs. Extended source
calculations
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Mean Seismic Hazard Map As Model
Fs Model
SEIFA Model
10%PoE 50yrs
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PGA: 10% Prob. Of Exceedance in 50y
Difference to Mean Model
95% Quan.le
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PGA – Quantile 10% PoE 50y
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PGA Disaggregation: Basel 2%PoEs50yrs
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EUROPEAN FACILITY FOR HAZARD AND RISK
www.efehr.org
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SHARE Consortium
hlp://www.share-‐eu.org/