OCTOBER
TELECOM SECTORTHE ERSTWHILE GOLDEN GOOSE OF INDIA;
CURRENTLY STARING AT FINANCIAL DISTRESS
02.Telecom Sector
Content
What is Disruption?
About Telecom Industry in India
Disruptions of the Telecom Sector 2016
Disruptive Power of Reliance Jio
Financial Implications for the Incumbent –
Financial Implications for the Incumbent –
Financial Implications for the Incumbent -
Consolidation and Closure of Smaller Players
Government Assistance to Revieve the Telecom Sector
Conclusions
01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
08.
09.
10.
03.Telecom Sector
What is Disruption ?
What is Disruption ?Disruption is often used as an effective strategy by a new and powerful entrant to outcast strong incumbents. Disruptions currently happening in corporate world include : (a) New-market disruptions and (b) low-end disruptions. New-market disruptions calls for creating whole new markets and/or new products; where as low-end disruptions are intended to lock horns with existing incumbents in existing markets and/or products.
Harvard Business School professor and disruption guru Clayton Christensen says
a disruption displaces an existing market, industry or technology, and produces something new and more efficient and worthwhile. It is at once destructive and creative. But to be truly disruptive, the proposed business idea should disrupt all proven incumbents in the target market.
Source: https://www.businesstoday.in/opinion/columns/recent-developments-that-disrupted-indian-telecom-space/story/248127.html
04.Telecom Sector
MajorDisruptors
of the world
05.Telecom Sector
About IndianTelecom Sector
About Indian Telecom Sector
In 1948, there were only 80,000 telephones (landlines) in India. The number of fixed-line telephones in 1991 were 5.07 million and the sector was entirely state-run.Liberalization in 1994 with
the introduction of National Telecom Policy. Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) an independent regulator was set up in 1997.
In July 1995, the first mobile telephone service was launched in India
Indian telecom industry is now the second largest in the world by number of subscribers
The sector has since witnessed exponential growth over past years primarily driven by affordable tariffs, wider availability, roll out of Mobile number portability (MNP), 3G & 4G, evolving consumption patterns of subscribers
06.Telecom Sector
About Indian Telecom SectorPost Reliance Jio’s Entry in the telecom sector, active subscriber base has been increasing due to drop in data tariff, improving 4G network & low cost calling.
The number of mobile subscribers in India increased from 1,001 million at the end of Sept 2016 (when Jio commenced operations) to 1,191 million at the end of December 2017.
Mobile data usage in India jumped 144 per cent (y-o-y) to reach 2,360 petabytes, with average consumption per user in 4G broadband reaching 11 gigabytes per month in December 2017.
The average 4G data consumption in India for year 2016 (before the introduction of Jio) was around 1 GB per user per month.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Active Subscriber (in Mn)
Airtel Vodafone IDEA JIO Others Total
158 178 172 225 472784
1,1061,540
810
3,7804,310
5,060
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Q1 -FY2017
Q2- FY2017
Q3 -FY2017
Q4- FY2017
Q1 -FY2018
Q2- FY2018
Q3 -FY2018
Q4- FY2018
Data Usage (Mn MBs)
Airtel Idea Vodafone Jio
Source: HDFC Securities Research, RBSA internal research07.Telecom Sector
08.Telecom Sector
TelecomDisruptions 2016
Reliance Jio has made 2016 alandmark year in terms of tariff,services and technology
Reliance Jio launched“introductory offer” at worldwide
lowest rate INR 50 per gigabyte
Negative Impact onFinancials of all the Telecom
Companies in India
Jio’s Pricing strategy hasdisrupted the market & forcedthe telecom companies todevise ways of survival
Due to stiff competition,it was excepted to bringconsolidation in the industry.
Govt. to commence cuttingdown of Inter Connect Usage(IUC) charges leading to fall inrevenues of all incumbents
Reliance Jio focused on datainstead of voice market which
is already matured.
Disruption in 2016
INTRODUCTORYOFFER
PRICINGSTRATEGY
DIGITALLIFE
09.Telecom Sector
10.Telecom Sector
Disruptive Power ofReliance Jio
Disruptive power of Reliance Jio
Jio connectivity is available in nearly18,000 cities and 2,00,000 villages across the country
Consolidation or shut down of other players from the
Industry.
322 million – Jio’s expected numbers of subscribers by 2020
Jio's network is sophisticated enough to seamlessly upgrade to 5G.
Jio has largest fibre-optic network in India
Financially backed by its Strong Parent “Reliance
Industries Limited”
Investment issue faced by other market player to set up 4G network.
Strategy to target rural area of India at low price
11.Telecom Sector
Financial PerformanceReliance Jio
Jio with its ubiquitous 4G only network is highly successful in moving the market from voice to data and remains a dominant market leader in data consumption.
Company is doing aggressive capex to leverage the data capacity advantage, tying up for content, expanding VoLTE presence etc.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) dropped because Reliance Jio did not charge prime customers and also gave discounts to those who recharged online.
Source: HDFC Securities- Reliance Jio, RBSA internal research
6,150
6,860
7,130 156 154
137
5,600
5,800
6,000
6,200
6,400
6,600
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
Q2-2018 Q3-2018 Q4-2018
Revenue (INR in Crs) ARPU (INR)
Revenue ARPU
-
88,435
1,24,449
1,43,821
-22.1
-12.2
21.3
-25-20-15-10-50510152025
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Debt (INR in Crs)
EBITDA Debt to EBITDA
12.Telecom Sector
13.Telecom Sector
Financial Implicationsfor the Incumbent - Airtel
Financial Implications forthe Incumbent – Airtel
Airtel's ARPUs severely impacted as it tries to match rival Jio’s tariff offerings.
Lower ARPUs affects revenues and profits. Airtel’s high-paying customers are going for plan downgrades. Its ARPU has seen erosion of more than INR 70 in the past two years.
The reduction in International Termination Rates (ITR) also adversely impacted the
telco. ITR is paid by international operators to local networks that receive calls. The ITR rate cut hurt Airtel’s gross revenue by INR 123.5 crore in Q4FY2018.
Drop in net profits was steeper than revenues due to higher fixed operating expenses. The interest cost, capex plans and operational costs have put pressure on the operational income.
Source: MOSL Report – Bharti Airtel, RBSA internal research
14,875 15,589 16,433 14,300 13,980
12,489 193 192 194 196 188 172 158 154 145123 116
0
50
100
150
200
250
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Revenue Standalone (INR in Crs) ARPU(INR)
Revenue (Standalone) ARPU
45,351 49,919
55,496 60,300 62,276
53,663
11.2% 13.2%
23.8%
12.9%
-15.9%
0.1%
-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Revenue Standalone ( INR in Crs )
Revenue Standalone Net Profit Margin
14.Telecom Sector
Financial Implications forthe Incumbent – Airtel
There is an Increase in debt significantly on account of spectrum acquisition.
Debt to EBIDTA had increased to 9.4 times in FY2017; which was brought down to 3.8 times in FY2018, through stake sales in investment companies.
During FY2018, Airtel undertook several initiatives to meet its liquidity and funding requirements. The Company had completed the secondary sale of a portion of its stake in Bharti Infratel Limited (“Bharti Infratel”) to global fund managers and other investors for a consideration of approx INR 2,570 Crs
and INR 3,325 Crs in Q2’18 and Q3’18 respectively.
The decreasing interest coverage ratio indicates that the company is under stress to meet its debt commitments.
Net interest costs of the company have risen due to increase in debt burden.
Irrespective of the deteriorating debt condition of the company, it will still have to continue incurring capex so as to compete with the sophisticated 4G VolTE network of Jio.
14,218 10,365
21,570
45,571
60,095 65,416
1.1 0.6
1.1 2.1
9.4
3.8
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Debt Standalone (INR in Crs)
Debt Standalone Debt to EBITDA
6,644
9,671
11,871 12,056
-5,781
4,152
4.0
7.2
8.4
3.4
-1.1
0.7
-2.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,000 14,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
EBIT Standalone ( INR in Crs)
EBIT Standalone Interest Coverage Ratio
Source: MOSL Report – Bharti Airtel, Annual Report FY 2018, Bharti Airtel, RBSA internal research15.Telecom Sector
16.Telecom Sector
Financial Implicationsfor the Incumbent - IDEA
Financial Implications forthe Incumbent – IDEA
Both voice and data services hurt by a brutal price war triggered by the entry of Reliance Jio, a development which has also forced India’s No. 3 telco to merger with rival Vodafone India.
Decrease in revenue because of the reduction in interconnect rate, subscriber base and reduction in average revenue per user (ARPU).
The regulation imposed 57% sharp decline in IUC settlement rates negatively impacted Idea’s Revenue and EBITDA
Decrease in net profit margins due to increase in finance cost, decrease in revenue and increase depreciation.
6540 70407560
84209010 9490
86608130
747065106140
174 165181 176 179 180 173 174 179 181 173
157142 132
114 105
020406080100120140160180200
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
Q1-
2014
Q2-
2014
Q3-
2014
Q4-
2014
Q1-
2015
Q2-
2015
Q3-
2015
Q4-
2015
Q1
-201
6
Q2-
2016
Q3-
2016
Q4-
2016
Q1
-201
7
Q2-
2017
Q3-
2017
Q4-
2017
Q1
-201
8
Q2-
2018
Q3-
2018
Q4-
2018
Revenue(INR in Crs) ARPU (INR)
Revenue ARPU
22,457 26,518
31,570
35,949 35,575
28,279 4%
6%9%
7%
-2%
-17%-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Revenue (INR in Crs)
Revenue Net Margin
Source: MOSL Report – Idea Cellular, RBSA internal research17.Telecom Sector
Financial Implications forthe Incumbent – IDEA
Idea’s net debt stood at INR 36,400 crore, or 3.2 times annualized EBITDA for the September 2016 quarter. By the end of the September 2017 quarter, debt has ballooned to INR 54,000 crore or as much as nine times annualized EBITDA.
Even after a reduction of INR 4,000 crore of debt from sale of its stand-alone towers to American Tower Corp in the FY2018, the net
Debt-EBITDA ratio would be around 8.8-8.9 times, simply because of the additional tower lease rentals the company will now have to bear.
Debt as on 31st March 2018 stands at INR. 57,985 � Crs includes a large component of debt from DoT under ‘Deferred Payment Obligation’ for Spectrum acquired in Auctions.
Source: MOSL Report – Idea Cellular, RBSA internal research
14,043 20,635
26,859
40,541
55,053 57,985
2.5 2.7 2.7 3.4
5.4
9.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Debt (INR in Crs)
Debt Debt to EBITDA
2,527 2,814
5,508 5,711
2,449
-2,362
2.3
3.9
5.1
3.2
0.6
-0.5 -1.0
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
EBIT (INR in Crs)
EBIT Interest Coverage Ratio
18.Telecom Sector
19.Telecom Sector
Financial Implicationsfor the Incumbent - VODAFONE
Financial Implications forthe Incumbent – VODAFONE
Vodafone India’s service revenue dropped 29% on y-o-y to INR 7,100 crore in the fourth quarter of 2017-18 as the country’s second-largest telco reeled under the effects of cuts in local and international interconnect rates and price wars.
Vodafone India’s average revenue per user (ARPU) fell to its lowest ever of Rs 105 in the fourth quarter of 2017-18.
Due to fierce competition in the telecom industry, Vodafone announced to merge with its rivalry Idea cellular.
Source: MOSL Report – Telecom, RBSA internal research
9,295 9,565 10,335 10,550 10,880
9,970 8,570
7,100 198195192192193187189184184178175177176171
158142141132
114105
0
50
100
150
200
250
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q1-
2014
Q2-
2014
Q3-
2014
Q4-
2014
Q1-
2015
Q2-
2015
Q3-
2015
Q4-
2015
Q1
-201
6
Q2-
2016
Q3-
2016
Q4-
2016
Q1
-201
7
Q2-
2017
Q3-
2017
Q4-
2017
Q1
-201
8
Q2-
2018
Q3-
2018
Q4-
2018
Revenue (INR in Crs) ARPU (INR)
Revenue ARPU
20.Telecom Sector
21.Telecom Sector
Stress in theTelecom Sector
Stress in the Telecom Industry
Source: https://www.businesstoday.in/opinion/columns/recent-developments-that-disrupted-indian-telecom-space/story/248127.html
Cumulative debt of Telecom Sector - INR 7.7 Lakh crores High spectrum cost - Wherein highest bid/sale price at one auction acts as a floor price for the succeeding auction.
Higher Debt to EBITDA Ratio for sector as a whole
Decreasing interest coverage ratio to such levels where servicing the current debt has become unsustainable
Declining trend in profitability due to various reasons like entry of greenfield Telecom Service Providers (TSPs) as against the existing brown field operators, Spectrum Usage Charges is a fixed proportion of Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR).
Tariff war and disruptive Entry of Reliance Jio
Expansion of telecom services to remote and rural area in the country involves huge capital investments by the service providers. Also, low returns on these investments (low potential revenues, low commercial activity, etc.) make expansion in these areas less profitable for the TSPs and act as a bottleneck for their investments
22.Telecom Sector
23.Telecom Sector
Consolidation andShut down of Operations
Merger of Airtel and Telenor
The transaction, won’t involve any cash payments to Telenor. It will give Airtel access to 54 million customers (increasing its user base to 320 million), 43.4 megahertz (MHz) of spectrum in the 1,800MHz band and 20,000 base stations.
Transaction Payment and Synergy
Airtel will assume the Telenor unit’s liabilities related to license fees and lease obligations for phone towers (around INR 1,600 crore of spectrum and INR 4,000 crore lease obligations).
Post-Acquisition Airtel Revenue Market Share will be 34.30% as against Idea plus Vodafone 40.70%
Market Share Benefits
The Benefits of Carried forward loss of INR 5575.95 crore can be claimed by Airtel
24.Telecom Sector
Merger of Idea and Vodafone
Vodafone to combine its subsidiary Vodafone India (excluding its 42% stake in Indus Towers) with Idea Cellular
Immediately post merger, Vodafone to receive a 50% stake. Vodafone will transfer a 4.9% stake in the combined company to Aditya Birla Group
Transaction Value equation
The two companies agreed to merge their operations with a swap ratio of 1:1.
Vodafone: 45.1%
Aditya Birla Group: 26.0%
Idea’s minority shareholders: 28.9%
Ownership Split Post Merger Scenario
35% of Market Share
41% of Revenue Market Share
40 Crores of customers
25.Telecom Sector
Aircel files for bankruptcydue to high debtmounting losses triggered by price war
Entry of Reliance Jio impacted small telecom players like Aircel
Aircel - Rcom plan to merger; but latter called off
Aircel’s attempts for debt restructuring couldn’t be successful.
Aircel filed for bankruptcy - Maxis (the Parent Company) lost $1.2 billion injected for common stock and $1.6 billion of redeemable preference shares.
26.Telecom Sector
Reliance Communicationsells its telecom assets
Having already endured a steady loss of market share over several years , Rcom was badly hit by the slump in mobile pricing
Rcom intended to gain scale and cost savings through the merger with rival operator Aircel, but it didn’t go through
Rcom closed its consumer mobile business and agreed to sell its entire tower and optical fiber network to Jio, along with its mobile spectrum.
NCLT, based on the application by Ericssion admits RCOM for insolvency proceedings. RBSA Restructuring Advisors was appointed as Interim Resolution Professional (IRP)
The telco managed to stave off the insolvency process. Supreme Court allows RCom to sell telecom assets worth Rs 181 billion to Reliance Jio
27.Telecom Sector
28.Telecom Sector
Government Assistanceto Revive the Telecom Sector
Improving RegulatoryEnvironmentThe Govt. has swung into action to address some of the regulatory overhang.Some of the Govt. initiatives include:
M&AGuidelines
Approved in Feb 2014
Increase in merged entities' market share cap to 50% (including wireline), potentially enabling larger operators to participate in the M&A process
EasingSpectrum
Holding Caps
An operator can hold up to 35% of the total spectrum assigned across all bands in a circle
The 50% cap on holding of total spectrum within a given band in a circle scrapped
Operators can hold up to 50% of the combined spectrum holding in sub-1 GHz bands (700, 800, 900 MHz) in a circle
SpectrumSharing and
Trading
Spectrum sharing enables operators to supplement existing spectrum holdings and achieve higher spectrum efficiency
Spectrum trading allows operators to acquire and bolster spectrum holding or monetise unused or under-utilised spectrum
29.Telecom Sector
Improving RegulatoryEnvironment
Passive & ActiveInfrastructure
Sharing
Passive network sharing allows operators to expand network coverage in a cost effective manner
Active infrastructure sharing allows operators to reduce their capex and lower operational costs
SpectrumPaymentExtension
Extension of time period for the payment of spectrum bought in auctions by telcos to 16 years from the current 10 years
Approved lowering of interest rate on penalties imposed on telecom operator
30.Telecom Sector
SpectrumSharing and
Trading3% flat spectrum usage charges (SUC)
Conclusion
31.Telecom Sector
ConclusionIndia’s telecom sector is going through a period of stress owing to growing losses and rising debt, amid heightened competition due to the disruptive entry of Reliance Jio
A new entrant has disrupted the market with low-cost data services and the revenue of incumbent players has fallen. The crisis has also severely impacted investors, lenders, partners and vendors of these incumbent companies.
Besides the tough competition in the market, carriers have claimed that almost 30 paise of every rupee earned by them is paid
as levy and taxes to the government, which is one of the major reasons for the industry’s debt of INR 7.7 lakh crore.
The government has swung into action to support the debt laden telecom sector. It is formulating a new telecom policy (NTP), where issues of regulatory and licensing frameworks impacting the sector, connectivity for all, quality of services, ease of doing business and absorption of new technologies including 5G and IoT will be addressed.
32.Telecom Sector
SNAPSHOT OF RBSATELECOM CREDENTIALS
33.Telecom Sector
SNAPSHOT OF RBSATELECOM CREDENTIALS
Insolvency Resolution Professional for Reliance Communications Ltd. under Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Insolvency Advisory Services
Insolvency Resolution Professional for Reliance Infratel Ltd. under Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Insolvency Advisory Services
Valuation of Business, Tangible and Intangible Asset of Reliance Globalcom Limited for the purpose of Purchase Price Allocation for Singapore Listing of Global Telecommunication Infrastructure Trust (GTIL)
Valuation & Purchase Price Allocation
Disinvestment of Stake in Bharti Hexacom Ltd. by TCIL
Valuation & Transaction Advisors
Financial Advisory Services for provinding Valuation and Fairness Opinion on Share Swap Ratio for Merger of TATA Teleservices India with Bharti Airtel
Financial Advisory Services
Valuation & Financial Advisory Services for Videocon Industries Ltd. and Videocon Telecom Ltd. under Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Financial Advisory Services
Valuation of Telecom Network and Tower Assets of Hutchison Essar (Now Vodafone) for Financial Reporting purposes
Valuation & Transaction Advisors
Insolvency Resolution Professional for Reliance Telecom Ltd. under Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Insolvency Advisory Services
Valuation and Financial Advisory Services for Assets of Aircel Ltd. / Aircel Cellular Ltd. / Dishnet Wireless Ltd. under Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code, 2016
Financial Advisory Services
TELESERVICES LIMITED
34.Telecom Sector
35.Telecom Sector
RANGE OF SERVICES
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(SEBI Registered – Category I Merchant Bank)
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Investment Banking Advisory Services
CONTACT US
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Tel: +91 22 6130 6000Fax: +91 22 6130 6001
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Tel: +971 4 518 2608M: +971 52 617 3699, +971 52 382 2367Fax: +971 4 518 2666Email: [email protected]
ManagementRajeev R. ShahManaging Director & CEO+91 79 4050 6070 [email protected]
Manish KaneriaManaging Director & COO+91 79 4050 6090 [email protected]
Gautam MirchandaniManaging Director & Head (Business Initiatives)+91 22 6130 6000 [email protected]
Research AnalystsNitin Mukhi+91 79 4050 [email protected]
Samyak Bumb+91 79 4050 [email protected]
36.Telecom Sector