![Page 1: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The convection-permitting ensemble
COSMO-DE-EPS
From development to applications
Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Meteorological Modelling and Analysis
Predictability and Verification
![Page 2: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Development of the ensemble
![Page 3: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Outline
•Step towards applications
- weather warnings, flood warnings,
airport management, renewable energy
• Development of the ensemble
![Page 4: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Development of the ensemble:
Setup and Motivation
![Page 5: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
model domain
COSMO-DE in operation since 2007
spatial grid length 2.8 km
no parametrization of deep
convection
(convection-permitting)
assimilation of radar data
lead time: 0-27 hours
8 starts per day
(00, 03 UTC,...)
Ensemble is based on model COSMO-DE
~
1300
km
Baldauf et al. (2011)
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Benefit of the fine grid (2.8 km)
improved forecasts of near-surface variables
precipitation, 2m-temperature, wind gusts
improved representation of atmospheric processes:
subsynoptic, mesoscale, convective
improved representation of severe weather
![Page 7: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Challenge: Predictability
![Page 8: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
cha
ract
eri
stic
tim
e sc
ale
characteristic length scale
synoptic
convective
10 km 1000 km
1 hour
1 week
100 m
Challenge: Predictability
atmospheric processes
![Page 9: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
cha
ract
eri
stic
tim
e sc
ale
characteristic length scale
synoptic
convective
10 km 1000 km
1 hour
1 week
100 m
Challenge: Predictability
atmospheric processes
lead time of the forecast
predictability
![Page 10: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
cha
ract
eri
stic
tim
e sc
ale
characteristic length scale
synoptic
convective
10 km 1000 km
1 hour
1 week
100 m
Challenge: Predictability
atmospheric processes
lead time of the forecast
predictability
Uncertainties in small scales grow faster (Lorenz 1969)
![Page 11: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
cha
ract
eri
stic
tim
e sc
ale
characteristic length scale
synoptic
convective
10 km 1000 km
1 hour
1 week
100 m
Challenge: Predictability
atmospheric processes
lead time of the forecast
predictability
address the forecast in a probabilistic framework
![Page 12: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
ensemble members
The ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS
20 forecast scenarios
for the same time in the future
operational since 2010 / 2012
![Page 13: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
COSMO-DE-EPS 2.8 km
COSMO 7 km
including variations of• initial conditions• model physics• soil moisture
GME, IFS, GFS, GSM
Ensemble chain of COSMO-DE-EPS
Gebhardt et al (2011), Peralta et al (2012)
![Page 14: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The 20 COSMO-DE-EPS members
entr_sc=0.002 q_crit=4.0 rlam_heat=0.1 rlam_heat=10. tur_len=500. lhn_coef=0.5
IFS O O
GME O O
GFS O
GSM O O
0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7
0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7
0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7
0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7
tkhmin und tkmmin = 0.2 / 0.4 / 0.7
soil moisture: no change (O) / anomaly / anomaly
(as of March 18th 2014)
11
66
1111
1616
22
77
1212
1717
33
88
1313
1818
44
99
1414
1919
55
1010
1515
2020
![Page 15: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Forecast Lead Time
00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC
for a specific location:
10
0
Example of a Forecast Product
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
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Forecast Lead Time
00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC
for a specific location:
10
0
90%-percentile= 10 mm rain
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
Example of a Forecast Product
![Page 17: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Forecast Lead Time
00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC
for a specific location:
10
0
75%-percentile= 7 mm rain
90%-percentile= 10 mm rain
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
Example of a Forecast Product
![Page 18: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The step towards applications
![Page 19: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
probabilistic forecasts of high-impact weather
weather warnings
flood warnings
storm surge warnings
airport management
renewable energy
and more
COSMO-DE-EPS is entering various applications
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COSMO-DE-EPS for weather warnings
2010-2012: „evaluation“ phase
since 2012: operational use of COSMO-DE-EPS
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percentiles,exceeding probabilities,ensemble mean and spread, …
DWD forecasters receive COSMO-DE-EPS
![Page 22: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
precipitation & snow,
10m wind gusts,
2m temperature,
simulated radar reflectivity,
CAPE, low level cloud cover
tailored to DWD warning criteria
forecaster can see the forecast:
2 ¼ hours after start of simulation
percentiles,exceeding probabilities,ensemble mean and spread, …
DWD forecasters receive COSMO-DE-EPS
![Page 23: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
precipitation & snow,
10m wind gusts,
2m temperature,
simulated radar reflectivity,
CAPE, low level cloud cover
tailored to DWD warning criteria
forecaster can see the forecast:
2 ¼ hours after start of simulation
DWD forecasters receive COSMO-DE-EPS
percentiles,exceeding probabilities,ensemble mean and spread, …
![Page 24: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
precipitation & snow,
10m wind gusts,
2m temperature,
simulated radar reflectivity,
CAPE, low level cloud cover
tailored to DWD warning criteria
forecaster can see the forecast:
2 ¼ hours after start of simulation
Favorites:
90%-percentiles
„upscaled“ probabilities
DWD forecasters receive COSMO-DE-EPS
![Page 25: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Why „upscaled“ probabilities?
Feedback from the forecasters
![Page 26: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
probability of
precipitation > 20 mm/6h
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
![Page 27: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
probability of
precipitation > 20 mm/6h
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
90 -100 %80 - 89 %70 - 79 %.....10 - 19 % 1 - 9 % < 1 %
![Page 28: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Forecasters:„Probabilities are too low!“
probability of
precipitation > 20 mm/6h
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
![Page 29: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Forecasters:„Probabilities are too low!“
probability of
precipitation > 20 mm/6h
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
not confirmed by verification
forecasters did accept 90%-percentiles
???
![Page 30: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Take a look at forecaster‘s desk
warning map
Source of Map: www.dwd.de
arbitrary example
![Page 31: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Take a look at forecaster‘s desk
warning map
Source of Map: www.dwd.de
arbitrary example
click here
![Page 32: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Source of Text: www.dwd.de
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Warningfor County Ravensburg
„There will be heavy rain.“
Source of Text: www.dwd.de
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probability of
precipitation > 20 mm/6h
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
![Page 35: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
probability of
precipitation > 20 mm/6h they needa different product
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
![Page 36: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
probability of
precipitation > 20 mm/6h
probability of
precipitation > 20 mm/6h
somewhere within a region
Source of Figure: NinJo Visualization System at DWD
90 -100 %80 - 89 %70 - 79 %.....10 -19 % 1 - 9 % < 1 %
![Page 37: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Ben Bouallègue, Z. and S.E. Theis (2013): Spatial techniques applied to precipitation ensemble forecasts: From verification results to probabilistic products. Meteorological Applications, DOI: 10.1002/met.1435.
Upscaling:
![Page 38: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Ben Bouallègue, Z. and S.E. Theis (2013): Spatial techniques applied to precipitation ensemble forecasts: From verification results to probabilistic products. Meteorological Applications, DOI: 10.1002/met.1435.
Ben Bouallègue, Z. (2013): Calibrated short-range ensemble precipitation forecasts using extended logistic regression with interaction terms. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 515-524.
Upscaling:
Statistical Postprocessing:
![Page 39: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Ben Bouallègue, Z. and S.E. Theis (2013): Spatial techniques applied to precipitation ensemble forecasts: From verification results to probabilistic products. Meteorological Applications, DOI: 10.1002/met.1435.
Ben Bouallègue, Z. (2013): Calibrated short-range ensemble precipitation forecasts using extended logistic regression with interaction terms. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 515-524.
Ben Bouallègue, Z., Theis, S.E. and C. Gebhardt (2013): Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 22 (1), 49-59.
Upscaling:
Statistical Postprocessing:
Time-Lagging:
![Page 40: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Look into other applications
What is their „high-impact“ weather?
![Page 41: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
„High-impact“ weather
severe precipitation eventsomewhere within a
certain region
![Page 42: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
„High-impact“ weather
severe precipitation eventsomewhere within a
certain region
high water levels of a river
(predicted by hydrological models which use ensemble weather
forecasts in their inputs)
![Page 43: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
COSMO-DE-EPS for flood warnings
![Page 44: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
take members of COSMO-DE-EPS
several simulations with
hydrological model
ensemble for runoff
COSMO-DE-EPS for flood warnings
![Page 45: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
take members of COSMO-DE-EPS
several simulations with
hydrological model
ensemble for runoff
COSMO-DE-EPS for flood warnings
Source: Christoffer Biedebach (2013)„Einsatzmöglichkeiten des wahrscheinlichkeitsbasierten Vorhersagesystems COSMO-DE-EPSim Hochwasser-Informationssystem von Emschergenossenschaft und Lippeverband“,Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt.
80
60
40
20
0ru
noff
(m
3 /s)
runoff at specific water gauge(river „Emscher“ at Königstraße)
time
![Page 46: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
COSMO-DE-EPS for flood warnings
current work - at various hydrological centers:
set up technical environment
find useful visualization
evaluation for many cases
open: statistical postprocessing
![Page 47: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
COSMO-DE-EPS for airport management
LuFo iPort WiWi project
(I.Alberts, N.Schuhen, M.Buchhold)
![Page 48: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
„High-impact“ weather
high water levels of a river
(predicted by hydrological models which use ensemble weather
forecasts in their inputs)
severe precipitation eventsomewhere within a
certain region
exceeding a certain threshold of the tailwind or crosswind component
relative to the airport runwayalong the glide path
source: LuFo iPort WiWi project
![Page 49: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
COSMO-DE-EPS for airport management (Frankfurt)
already acheived:
product design
useful visualization
statistical postprocessing
quasi-operational environment
LuFo iPort WiWi project (I.Alberts, N.Schuhen, M.Buchhold)
![Page 50: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
COSMO-DE-EPS for airport management (Frankfurt)
LuFo iPort WiWi project (I.Alberts, N.Schuhen, M.Buchhold)
win
d p
ara
llel t
o r
un
wa
y (
kt)
-2
0
0
+20
probability of wind > (+ 5kt)
probability of wind < (- 5kt)
pro
ba
bili
ty (
%)
0 20406080100806040200
Time (UTC)
Tailwind
![Page 51: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
COSMO-DE-EPS for airport management (Frankfurt)
LuFo iPort WiWi project (I.Alberts, N.Schuhen, M.Buchhold)
cro
ssw
ind
(kt
)
0 20406080100806040200
-2
0
0
+20
probability of wind > (+ 20kt)
probability of wind < (- 20kt)
pro
ba
bili
ty (
%)
Time (UTC)
Crosswind
![Page 52: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
statistical postprocessing method:
EMOS, bivariate Gaussian distribution
Schuhen et al. (2012):
Ensemble Model Output Statistics for Wind Vectors.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 3204–3219.
COSMO-DE-EPS for airport management (Frankfurt)
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COSMO-DE-EPS for renewable energy
EWeLiNE project (K. Lundgren et al.)
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„High-impact“ weather
high water levels of a river
(predicted by hydrological models which use ensemble weather
forecasts in their inputs)
severe precipitation eventsomewhere within a
certain region
exceeding a certain threshold of the tailwind or crosswind component
relative to the airport runwayalong the glide path
![Page 55: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
„High-impact“ weather
high water levels of a river
(predicted by hydrological models which use ensemble weather
forecasts in their inputs)
severe precipitation eventsomewhere within a
certain region
exceeding a certain threshold of the tailwind or crosswind component
relative to the airport runwayalong the glide path
very quick changein wind speed at hub height
taking place over a large area(?)
EWeLiNE project (K. Lundgren et al.)
![Page 56: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
UAS-PS 304.03SCI-POT 1138SCI-POT 1028UAS-POM 3014
„High-impact“ weather
high water levels of a river
(predicted by hydrological models which use ensemble weather
forecasts in their inputs)
severe precipitation eventsomewhere within a
certain region
exceeding a certain threshold of the tailwind or crosswind component
relative to the airport runwayalong the glide path
very quick changein wind speed at hub height
taking place over a large area(?)
![Page 57: The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS From development to applications Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold Deutscher Wetterdienst](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d355503460f94a0cb39/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Summary
• Convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS
- in operation since 2010 / 2012
• Discovered by increasing number of applications
- weather & flood warnings, airport, renewable energy, and more
• Communication with users
-product design, visualization, postprocessing method
-can be essential for acceptance
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• Ben Bouallègue, Z. (2013): Calibrated short-range ensemble precipitation forecasts using extended logistic regression with interaction terms. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 515-524.
• Ben Bouallègue, Z., Theis, S.E. and C. Gebhardt (2013): Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble
forecasts by inexpensive techniques. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 22 (1), 49-59.
• Ben Bouallègue, Z. and S.E. Theis (2013): Spatial techniques applied to precipitation ensemble forecasts: From verification results to probabilistic products. Meteorological Applications, DOI: 10.1002/met.1435.
• Gebhardt, C., Theis, S.E., Paulat, M. and Z. Ben Bouallègue (2011): Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries. Atmospheric Research, 100, 168-177.
• Peralta, C., Z. Ben Bouallègue, S.E. Theis, C. Gebhardt, and M. Buchhold (2012): Accounting for initial condition uncertainties in COSMO-DE-EPS. J. Geophys. Res., 117 (D7), doi:10.1029/2011JD016581
References around COSMO-DE-EPS
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-data access for research (in addition to the producing center itself)
-forecasts of several high-resolution ensemble systems (incl COSMO-DE-EPS)
-selected set of variables (there is more at the producing center itself)
-technical description of the systems
information: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/TIGGE/TIGGE-LAM
data access: http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/tigge_lam/
Data Access for Research:
TIGGE-LAM archive
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PBPV – 03/2013 60