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The Causes and Consequences of the October War
Great Powers in the Middle EastGalen JacksonApril 22, 2014
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Agenda
• Briefly wrap up the Israeli nuclear program• The War of Attrition and the Rogers Plan • The Jordan Crisis• The Road to War• Kissinger and the Disengagement Agreements• Summary
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The NPT Debate
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“Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb”
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Significance of the Israeli Bomb
• October 1973
• Nonproliferation efforts in the Middle East/worldwide today (Iran)
• Egyptian-Israeli peace? U.S.-Israeli relations?
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The Aftermath of the June 1967 War
• UN Resolution 242 and the Jarring Mission
• Egyptian armed forces completely destroyed
• The Allon Plan
• Stalemate
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Nasser’s Strategy: Enter the Russians
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Soviet Goals in the Middle East
• Nurture Egyptian dependence/expand influence with Cairo
• Naval facilities
• Avoid another war but regain lost prestige
• Détente? “Controlled tension?”
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Ups and Downs in U.S.-Israeli Relations
• Beginning of a major military relationship
• Divergence on political issues—Rusk’s Sept. 1968 Seven Point Plan (territorial disagreement)
• Israel content to wait it out/divisions within Israeli leadership on visions for peace
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To the War of Attrition
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The Superpowers and the Diplomatic Impasse
• Nixon’s inconsistent views on the Arab-Israeli conflict
• Reflected in the split between State and Kissinger
• Rogers gets the Middle East
• U.S.-Soviet negotiations: a “test” for the USSR
• The Failure of the Rogers Plan in Dec. 1969
• The End of Joint Diplomacy
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Israel’s Escalation
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Nasser in Moscow
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Operation Kavkaz
• Starts to turn the tide—by April penetration bombing is called off
• Soviet missile crews/combat pilots directly engaged
• Washington refuses to back Israel, though Nixon does promise to quietly replace losses
• Costs to both sides becoming heavy/situation getting out of control by the summer
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“Stop Shooting, Start Talking”
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Black September
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Significance of the Jordan Crisis
• Rogers is undermined • The PLO is expelled to Lebanon • Hussein’s position in Jordan is solidified but at the
cost of his position in the Arab world• U.S.-Soviet Middle East relations deteriorate
further• Nasser’s last act as the leader of Egypt• Rise of Hafez al-Asad in Syria• “Standstill diplomacy”
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Enter Anwar Sadat
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The Gromyko Plan
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Détente, “Standstill Diplomacy,” and Sadat’s “Violent Shock”
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Sadat’s Strategy
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San Clemente
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The October War
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The October War
• Intelligence failure• Egypt’s brilliant strategy• The American and Soviet airlifts—dispute about Israel’s
nuclear maneuvers • The Arab oil embargo• Sketch of military developments—Israel turns the tide
with Sharon’s crossing• Kissinger in Moscow• UN Resolution 338• The Oct. 24-25 nuclear alert
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Crossing the Canal
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The Conflict Transformed
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Shuttle Diplomacy and Henry Kissinger
• Geneva Conference (Dec. 1973)
• Sinai I (January 1974)
• End of the embargo (March 1974)
• “The Shuttle” (May 1974): “Super K”
• Nixon’s resignation (Aug. 9)
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New President, Same Problem
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The Rabat Arab Summit
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Reassessment (March 1975)
• Ford wants some quid pro quo
• Kissinger’s Failed March Shuttle: “The magic is gone.”
• Debating a comprehensive solution—linkage
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Domestic Pushback
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The Road to Sinai II
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The Second Egyptian-Israeli Disengagement Agreement
• Limited Israeli withdrawal behind the Giddi and Mitla Passes, return of the Sinai oil fields
• DMZs, American civilian monitors• American commitments: PLO pledge,
coordination of strategy pledge, Geneva Conference procedures pledge, Golan Heights pledge (significant during the 1990s)
• $ and weapons for Israel ($2 billion and sophisticated equipment like Lance missiles)
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Sinai II
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The End of Step-by-Step Diplomacy
• Had run its course
• 1976 an election year, no progress
• Carter Administration opts for an overall approach
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Summing Up
• Amimut: Significant for Camp David?• Moscow and Washington cannot work it out• From Nasser to Sadat• Military option as the Arabs’ last resort• October War breaks the freeze• Step-by-step diplomacy—a partial solution• For Thursday: To Camp David
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Questions?
Thank You!