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THE BANGLADESH DELTA PLANWAGENINGEN, 12-12-2019
WILLIAM OLIEMANS - DELTARES
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‘THE BEST GIFT FOR THE FUTURE GENERATIONS BY THE PRESENT GENERATION’
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CONTENTS
• The Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
• Context and challenges
• From planning to implementation
Knowledge for resilient development?
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To start: salient features
Population 169 million (2015), Area: 147 570 km2
Average GDP growth 2010 – 2015: 6,5 % per year. Agriculture: 15.1%, Industry: 26.5%, Services: 58.3% (2014 est.)
Ambition: to become a (lower) middle income country by 2021 and developed country by 2041
Delta country: 30% <5 m, 45% from 5-30m and 25% >30m
Main Delta Water Issues: Flooding, Drought, Erosion & Sedimentation, Water Quality, Environment and Sustainable Governance
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• Flood▪ 1987/ 1988/ 1998/ 2004 ▪ 2000 (Jessore-Khulna region)▪ 2007 (North West region)
• Drought• Water logging or drainage
congestion• River erosion and Coastal erosion• Cyclones/storm surge induced
flood• Salinity intrusion• Groundwater degradation• Land subsidence• Climate change
▪ Sea Level Rise (SLR)▪ Temperature rise
• Transboundary issues
Water Management Issues
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Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)
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Wilson and Goodbred, 2016
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BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100
BDP 2100 Approach & Process
Key challenges
Prof. Dr. Jaap de Heer, Team Leader
William Oliemans, Water Resources
বাাংলাদেশ ডেল&টা প্ল্যান ২১০০
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The need for a Delta Plan?
To achieve its development goals, the country must balance its available resources and plan against growing uncertainties:
• Urbanization & population growth
• Upstream developments
• Climate change (sea level rise, flooding and droughts)
• Land subsidence & environmental degradation
A ‘new’ type of planning is needed for the Delta Plan that can deal with these uncertainties
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Uncertainties: Population, Climate Change
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Uncertainties: Upstream Developments, Subsidence
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BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE
• Need for a holistic and integrated approachfor Water Resources Management
• Identification of challenges, definition ofstrategies, scenario-analysis, investmentstrategies and governance
• Short, medium and long term goals
• Adaptive approach to deal better withuncertainties
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KEY FEATURES (1)• Mix of Dutch Delta Approach and
Bangladesh approach• Extensive consultation at Hot Spot and
District level
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KEY FEATURES (2)• Mix of strategies and investment priorities, in a 4-year project,
including a long term vision and deliverables for the 5-year plan
• Teams; A, B and C. Bangladesh and Dutch governmentagencies, consultants and institutes
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Strategies Developed at 3 Scales:
❑National Strategies:❑Flood Risk Management❑Freshwater Supply❑Thematic Strategies▪Agriculture, Food Security, Nutrition and Livelihoods▪Transboundary Water Management▪Water Supply, Sanitation & Waste Management▪Environment, Ecology & Biodiversity▪Dynamizing Inland Water Transport System▪Sustainable Land Use and Spatial Planning▪Advancing the Blue Economy▪Renewable Energy▪Earthquakes
❑6 Hotspot Strategies▪Coastal Zone▪Barind and Drought Prone Areas▪Haor and Flash Flood Areas▪Chattogram Hill Tracts▪River Systems and Estuaries▪Urban Areas
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From strategies to programsand projects
❖BDP 2100 Investment Plan consists of 80projects to be implemented by 2030:▪65 physical projects; ▪15 institutional & knowledge development projects. ❖Total capital investment cost: BDT2,938billion ($37.50 billion).❖Development of the Investment Plan:following the principles of ADM
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Implementation - coordination challenge
Framework: NWPo – NWMP – ICZMP – Water Act – FYP – BDP2100 …
Rural Infrastruc
ture
Water Supply
Fisheries
Agri-culture
Water Resources
Integrated planning
LGI
DPHE
DoF
BADC/ DAE/
BMDA
BWDB
Sectoralimplementation
? ?
Monitoring –integraten challenges
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Adaptation pathway – water quantity
Strategic objective:
Priority water needs should be met, whilst maintaining sustainable groundwater abstraction
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CHALLENGES FOR THE KNOWLEDGE COMMUNITY• From sector-driven development to integrated development; new knowledge• Co-creation: share knowledge and approaches but learn to adapt, include NGOs, business
and government in ACTION RESEARCH• Focus on adaptation for resilience and development; research solutions and problems• Growing with sediment and salinity
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flood extentresource
availability
+
other
pressures
violent
extremism
income
jihadist
influence
+
-
criminal
economy-
+
insecurity
lack of state
+
+
+
+
+-
migration- +
traditional
resource
management
-
climate
?
water abstraction
and regulation
-
over-
explotation-
+
++
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Joint Cooperation Programme Bangladesh – The Netherlands
JCP Objectives
• Carry out a long-term knowledge sharing and capacity building program between Bangladesh and Netherlands institutes in the water sector
• With the aim to:• Increase the knowledge base of the institutes
• Strengthen the capacity in Bangladesh to plan, develop and manage (marine and fresh) water resources systems. Capacities include water system knowledge, data management, decision-support modelling, cooperation and collaboration
• Contribute to the BDP2100 Knowledge Agenda
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http://202.53.173.179/delta/
www.plancomm.gov.bd