The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018
Key findings from a nationwide survey among 1,000 likely mid-term votersConducted August 30 to September 5, 2018, for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
The current state of play: Democrats lead in a generic congressional race as undecided voters move away from Trump.
2
31% 22%
17%
15%
15%
48%
37%
Vote for Democrat
Vote for Republican
Undecided
Definitely Definitely
Undecided voters:• 53% Trump voters, 35% Clinton
voters• 44% approve of Trump, 56%
disapprove of Trump
In the November election for representative in the U.S. Congress for your district, are you more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
+11
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
The current state of play: Democrats also have a voting enthusiasm advantage—driven by liberal and white Democrats.
3
Proportions saying they are extremely enthusiastic and motivated to vote in this year’s elections for Congress and other offices
62%
48%
60%
74%
60%
77%
60%
71%
65%
72%
64%
Republicans
Independents
Democrats of color
White Democrats
Non-liberal Democrats
Liberal Democrats
Trump voters
Clinton voters
Vote Republican
Vote Democrat
All voters
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Each party is seen as having a clear agenda by its own supporters, not others.
4
51%
76%
27%30%
49%
24%
73% 70%
All voters Vote Democrat VoteRepublican
Undecided
Yes, Democrats have a clear agenda
No, Democrats do not have a clear agenda
48%
35%
71%
33%
52%
65%
29%
67%
All voters Vote Democrat VoteRepublican
Undecided
Yes, Republicans have a clear agenda
No, Republicans do not have a clear agenda
Do you think Republicans/Democrats have a clear agenda of what they want to do if they win the majority in Congress?
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Healthcare is seen as the leading edge of the Democratic agenda.
5
What do you think the agenda of the Democrats will be if they win the majority in Congress?
Volunteered impressions of what the Democratic agenda will be if they win the majority in Congress.
Healthcare, protect Obamacare 25%
Immigration, will work on reforming immigration laws
14%
Impeach Trump 9%
Reverse everything Trump has done, fix all the bad deals Trump has made
8%
Improve the economy 7%
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
And affordable healthcare is the most frequently volunteeredanswer on what a party should stand for to be “For the People.”
6
If a political party wanted to show that it is truly For the People, what would it do or stand for?
Volunteered impressions of what a political party that is FOR THE PEOPLE will focus on.
All votersVote
DemocratVote
RepublicanUndecided
Healthcare, affordable healthcare 26% 32% 21% 19%
Concern for the people, all people, people of color
21% 21% 20% 26%
Lower taxes, cut taxes for the middle class
16% 12% 24% 10%
Jobs/employment 12% 7% 17% 14%
Education, better schools 10% 13% 6% 12%
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
In an election about who is “For the People,” Democrats have a clear advantage.
7
Which party do you think is more likely to be FOR THE PEOPLE?
34%
19%
67%
50%
7% 4%
17%
12%
24%
4%
26%
24%
13%
18%
8%
18%
52%
All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided
51%
91%
31%
1%6%
76%
31%
17%
▪ Democrats—much more▪ Democrats—a little more▪ Republicans—a little more▪ Republicans—much more▪ Neither
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
The Republicans’ “Better Off Now” agenda does little to broaden the GOP’s appeal.
8
24%29%
3%
55% 56%
11% 10%
17% 11%
8%
16%
27%
4%
21%15%
19% 18%11%
43%
All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided
41%
11%
40%
71%
83%
6%
32%
25%
What is your reaction to hearing that Republicans have a BETTER OFF NOW agenda that is focused on continuing to work with President Trump to improve America’s economy by lowering taxes and reducing job-killing regulations?
▪ Very favorable▪ Somewhat favorable▪ Somewhat unfavorable▪ Very unfavorable▪ Neutral
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
The Democrats’ “For the People” agenda solidifies Democratic voters and appeals to others.
9
38%
13%
64%
11%
33%
19%
5%
23%
10%
23%
18%
21%
34%
10%
16%
9%17%
32%
All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided
61%
88%
23%
3%
29%
54% 53%
15%
What is your reaction to hearing that the Democrats have a FOR THE PEOPLE agenda that is focused on lowering healthcare costs, raising wages, and cleaning up corruption?
▪ Very favorable▪ Somewhat favorable▪ Somewhat unfavorable▪ Very unfavorable▪ Neutral
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
The appeal of a “For the People” Democratic candidate reaches beyond the Democratic base.
10
36%
8%
65%
5%
18% 21%
3%
32%
7%
27%
32%11%
47%
7%
17%
4%
34%
22%
All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided
68%
93%
15%
4%
37%29%
68%
10%
If the Democratic candidate for Congress supports a FOR THE PEOPLE agenda that is focused on lowering healthcare costs, raising wages, and cleaning upcorruption, would this make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, somewhat less favorable, or much less favorable to this Democratic candidate?
▪ Very favorable▪ Somewhat favorable▪ Somewhat unfavorable▪ Very unfavorable▪ Neutral
24% of voters find a “For the People” Democratic candidate appealing but are not currently voting Democratic.
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Proposals that crack down on drug and health insurance companies have strong appeal.
11
Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to lower healthcare costs.
37%
44%
50%
54%
61%
63%
24%
27%
26%
26%
22%
23%
Very favorable Somewhat favorable
Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices and require them to release
data to justify price increases
Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums to people with
preexisting conditions, women, and age 50+
Give Medicare authority to negotiate directly with drug companies for lowest drug prices
Eliminate the tax breaks that subsidize the television advertising of big drug companies
Allow Americans to import lower-cost prescription drugs from Canada
Create competition for private insurance by offering a gov’t-sponsored public option for
health insurance
66%
63%
55%
48%
41%
31%
57%
56%
42%
45%
33%
25%
FTP Targets Undecided
VERY Favorable
86%
83%
80%
76%
71%
61%
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Equal pay for women is one of several strong proposals to address the need for higher wages.
12
Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to raise wages.
41%
44%
55%
53%
51%
49%
21%
29%
22%
25%
29%
32%
Very favorable Somewhat favorable
Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women, like prohibiting employers from paying someone
less for a job based on salary history
Restore and strengthen overtime protections by requiring employers to pay overtime to
employees making less than $50K a year
Create good-paying jobs through a commitment to building, repairing, and modernizing
American’s bridges, tunnels, and transit
Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs and ensure all Americans can access
these programs when they need them
Rebuild power/bargaining for workers by giving them a real seat at the table so they can
negotiate for higher wages on equal footing with their employers
Raise national minimum wage to $15 and index to cost of living
50%
48%
52%
56%
41%
34%
43%
43%
44%
51%
33%
29%
FTP Targets Undecided
VERY Favorable
81%
80%
78%
77%
73%
62%
Women 61%
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Banning taxpayer funding of harassment settlements is one of several strong proposals on corruption.
13
Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to address corruption.
48%
54%
51%
54%
56%
58%
71%
15%
18%
22%
23%
21%
19%
14%
Very favorable Somewhat favorableBan use of taxpayer money to pay for sexual
harassment settlements in lawsuits against members of Congress
Require dark money orgs that spend unlimited amounts influencing elections to identify the
individuals/corps that provide their funding
Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations rather than having members of
Congress police themselves
Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates, to reduce the ability of lobbyists to
buy access and influence
Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists after leaving office
Require candidates for federal office, including Congress, to disclose their tax returns
Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump administration, to make sure Congress
serves as a check and balance
73%
57%
56%
53%
51%
54%
66%
52%
52%
50%
46%
49%
FTP Targets Undecided
40% 43%
VERY Favorable
85%
77%
77%
77%
73%
72%
63%
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
And across audiences, healthcare tops the list of “For the People” for priorities.
14
Lowering the cost of
healthcare
Cleaning up corruption
Raising wages
All voters 49% 33% 18%
Democratic voters 47% 30% 23%
Republican voters 49% 37% 14%
Undecided voters 54% 32% 14%
FTP targets 56% 27% 17%
Liberal Democrats 52% 29% 19%
Non-liberal Democrats 46% 29% 25%
White Democrats 56% 28% 16%
Democrats of color 39% 30% 31%
Independents 44% 39% 17%
Republicans 49% 36% 15%
Which will be the most important to you when it comes time to vote?
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
And when all 18 proposals are stacked against each other, the healthcare proposals are highlighted as key priorities.
15
Proportions who choose each in their top five most important priorities.
27%
29%
30%
31%
33%
34%
36%
37%
42%Stop drug companies from
dramatically increasing prices
Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums
Create jobs through modernizing infrastructure
Ban use of taxpayer money for sexual harassment settlements
Give Medicare authority to negotiate for low drug prices
Raise national minimum wage to $15 and index to cost of living
54% undecided voters, 49% FTP targets
42% Millennials
50% Age 65+
45% African American, 44% Hispanic, 41% Millennials
Expand job training and apprenticeship programs and ensure access for all Americans
Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women
Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethical violations by members of Congress
46% women 50+, postgrad
38% African American, 47% Hispanic, 37% Millennials
39% women under 50, 37% African Americans
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Democrats, Republicans, and undecided voters agree and disagree on various priorities.
16
Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices
Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums
Give Medicare authority to negotiate for low drug prices
Allow Americans to import lower-cost drugs from Canada
Eliminate tax breaks for the TV ads of drug companies
Offer a public option for health insurance for all ages
Create jobs through modernizing infrastructure
Require dark money orgs to disclose what they fund
Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists
Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates
Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump admin
Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations
Ban use of taxpayer money for sexual harassment settlements
Rebuild power/bargaining for workers
Restore and strengthen overtime protections
Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women
Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs
Raise national minimum wage to $15
Require candidates to disclose their tax returns
Democrat voters Republican voters Undecided
Proportions choosing each in their top five most important priorities.
36% 46% 54%
34%37%
38%
30% 34% 35%
19%25%
30%
25%16%
15%
18% 24% 27%
34% 35% 41%
21% 30% 39%
32%30%
24%
20% 26% 36%
19%20%20%
16% 19%17%
23%44%
46%
24%26%
29%
5%15%
39%
25%
24%
13% 18%
26%
20%
15%
11%
14%
20%
22%
18%
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
With the base, liberal and non-liberal Democrats differ in their priorities.
17
Proportions choosing each in their top five most important priorities.
Liberal Democrats Non-liberal Democrats
Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices
Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums
Give Medicare authority to negotiate for low drug prices
Allow Americans to import lower-cost drugs from Canada
Eliminate tax breaks for the TV ads of drug companies
Offer a public option for health insurance for all ages
Create jobs through modernizing infrastructure
Require dark money orgs to disclose what they fund
Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists
Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates
Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump admin
Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations
Ban use of taxpayer money for sexual harassment settlements
Rebuild power/bargaining for workers
Restore and strengthen overtime protections
Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women
Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs
Raise national minimum wage to $15
Require candidates to disclose their tax returns
35%
16% 21%
18% 19%
19% 29%
22% 29%
35% 42%
19% 27%
13% 17%
13%
20%
11%
11%
39%35%
30% 36%
38% 41%
23% 39%
19% 21%
18% 20%
18% 28%
35% 42%
35%28%
39% -4
+7
-7
+2
-2
+10
+6
+3
-16
+5
-5
+1
-10
-7
+7
+8
-4
-2
+9
Gap: Lib –Non-lib
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
31%22%
35%
17%
17%
15%
18%
14%
15% 16%
Initial vote Informed vote
▪ Definitely for Democrat▪ Probably/leaning for Democrat▪ Probably/leaning for Republican▪ Definitely for Republican▪ Completely undecided
+11 +22
After voters learn more about “For the People” policies, Democrats extend their lead by 11 points.
18
In the November election for representative in the U.S. Congress for your district, are you more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
Initial Dem Advantage
Final Dem Advantage
Change
Liberal Democrats +97 +97 -
Non-liberal Democrats +78 +86 +8
Independents +10 +29 +19
Republicans -85 -69 +16
Men/18-49 +17 +27 +10
Men/50+ -15 -3 +12
Women/18-49 +28 +38 +10
Women/50+ +14 +24 +10
White -3 +8 +11
African American +70 +74 +4
Hispanic +33 +49 +16
Men/non-college -25 -9 +16
Men/college + +4 +11 +7
Women/non-college -10 +3 +13
Women/college + +21 +31 +10
Trump voters/not strong approve
-45 -19 +26
48%
37%
53%
31%
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
And those who intend to vote for Democrats become more enthusiastic about voting.
19
Proportions saying they are extremely enthusiastic and motivated to vote in this year’s elections for Congress and other offices
Age 65+
Age 50-64
Age 35-49
Age 18-34
Republicans
Independents
Democrats of color
White Democrats
Non-liberal Democrats
Liberal Democrats
Undecided voters
Republican voters
Democrat voters
Clinton voters
Trump voters
All votersInitial Informed
Enthusiasm
63%
35%35%
48%
63%
55%
60%57%
66%64%
78%77%
61%
62%
48%
60% 60%
71% 74%
70%60%
78%74%
68%60%
81%77%
64% 65%
72% 78%
Change
67%
-
+4
+3
+6
-1
-
+8
+4
+10
+4
+1
-
+3
+6
+1
+2
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
No longer taking corporate or lobbyist money is more important than accessibility to showing the Democratic Party is truly for the people.
20
Much More Likely Somewhat More Likely Not More Likely
If Democrats in Congress stop accepting money from lobbyists
49% 31% 20%
If Democrats in Congress refuse to accept any money from corporate PACs
47% 31% 22%
If Democrats in Congress hold at least one town hall meeting with their constituents every month
35% 33% 32%
If Democrats in Congress make their daily schedules public so people can know who they are meeting with
34% 34% 32%
Does each step Democrats in Congress might take make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, or not more likely to think that Democrats are truly for the people?
The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Most voters, including most of those intending to vote Democratic,are not ready for Democrats to begin impeachment if they win inNovember.
21
Which of the following statements about impeachment comes closest to your own point of view?
26%
41%
33%46%
14%
40% 45%
7%
48% 45%
26%
29%
All VotersIntended
Democratic Voters Liberal DemocratsNon-liberal Democrats
▪ If the Democrats win the majority, they should begin impeachment proceedings▪ If the Democrats win the majority, they should not begin impeachment proceedings▪ It is too early to say, Democrats need to wait for Mueller to complete his investigation