The Anthropocene
From Hunter-Gathers to a Global Geophysical ForceWill Steffen
Executive Director, The ANU Climate Change InstituteThe Australian National University
Human Development andEarth System Dynamics
Evolution of fully modernhumans in Africa
Hunter-gatherer societies only
Beginning of
agriculture
Aborigines arrive inAustralia
Beginningof agriculture
Great Europeancivilisations:Greek, Roman
Human Development andEarth System Dynamics
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
First migration of fully modern humans
out of Africa
Migrations offully modern humans
from South Asia to Europe
The Anthropocene Era
Steffen, Crutzen, McNeill (2007) Ambio 36: 614-621Crutzen (2002) Nature 415: 23Costanza, Graumlich, Steffen (2006) Dahlem W’shop Rep 96Steffen, Grinevald, Crutzen, McNeill (2011), in review
Before the Anthropocene:Pre-Anthropocene Events (Pre-1800)
•”Fire-Stick Farming” - use of fire as a tool to modify ecosystems to favour particular desired species and to aid in the hunt. Fire was most often used to convert dry forestsand woodlands into savannas and grasslands, and to maintain ecosystems in those states.
• Megafauna extinctions - large-scale (continental) extinctionsof large Pleistocene mammals by hunting, perhaps in combination with climatic changes - North America, northern Eurasia, Australia.
• No discernable effect on Earth System functioning at the global scale
Anthropocene Stage 1(1800-1945)
• Evidence - increase in GHG concentrations, widespreaddeforestation of temperate forests, etc.
• Industrial Revolution - steam engine, fossil fuel energy systems, rapid and wide spread of these energy systems
• Flow-on effects - more efficient techniques for land clearing;synthetic fertiliser; more reliable water supply and bettersanitation, leading to better public health. These developments, in turn, led to an increase in population AND their ability to consume.
From Steffen et al. 2004
AnthropoceneStage 2
(1945 - 2010/2020)
The changing ’humanenterprise’, from 1750
to 2000.
Note the start of the’Great Acceleration’around 1950, when
many activities beganor accelerated sharply.
From: Steffen et al. 2004
Responses of the biophysical Earth System to the accelerating ’human enterprise’.
The biophysical responsesof the Earth System showmany of the same featuresas the Great Accelerationin the human enterprise.
Triggers of the Great Acceleration
• Globalisation: Global networks of communication & finance -crossed a threshold of connectivity
• Emergence of ”armies of scientists & technologists” from WWII
• Dramatic shifts in political & economic structures/institutions
• World economy based on capitalist/neo-liberal economic principles (e.g., increasing commoditisation of public goods)
• ’Growth imperative’ - increasing consumption per capita
Knowledge Science Technology
Population Energy
Institutions
Production/Consumption
PoliticalEconomy
From: Hibbard et al. 2006
The Changing Human-EnvironmentRelationship under the Great Acceleration
Complex impacts of globalisation• Mixed environmental impacts at local levels but
homogenisation of the environment (and cultures!) at the global level
• Negative environmental impacts of debt & financial crises
Urbanisation and the environment• Different experiences and understanding of nature between
urban and rural dwellers (e.g., transformation of rural-urbanlinkages)
• Increased wealth, rising consumption expectations
Governance• Shift to free-market economic systems• Decentralisation & privatisation of environmental management
Human Imprint on Marine EcosystemsFisheries collapse
– The Atlantic cod stocks off the east coast of Newfoundland collapsed in 1992, forcing the closure of the fishery
– Depleted stocks may not recover even if harvesting is significantly reduced or eliminated entirely
– About 50% of all fish stocks are fully exploited, 15-18% are overexploited, and 9-10% have been depleted or are recovering from depletion
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005,Steffen et al. 2004
Human Imprint on the Terrestrial Biosphere
From landscapes togenes…
Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO (Based on Statistics from FAO etc., for 2000)
CaribbeanCaribbean
North North AmericaAmerica
Central Central AmericaAmerica
South South AmericaAmerica
WestWestAfricaAfrica
OceaniaOceania
East &East &South East AsiaSouth East Asia
SouthSouthAsiaAsia
USSRUSSR
North WestNorth WestAfricaAfrica
WesternWesternEuropeEurope
MiddleMiddleEastEast
1~5 5~10 10~15 15~20 20~30 30~50 50<
Importer based, over 5 km3/y
km3/y
78.5
33.5
46.2
57.538.8
36.4
Economic Globalization: Virtual Water Flows
(Cereals only)
The multi-faceted nature of global change
Source: Global Footprints Network 2005
Global Footprint of the Human Enterprise
Source: Moran et al., Ecological Economics, 64, 470-474, 2008
Sustainable development quadrant
Anthropocene Stage 3(2000 - ?)
Anthropocene Stage 3:The 2000-2010 Decade
• Humans have constructed an artificial chromosome andinserted it into DNA; towards synthesis of life itself
• China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and othersare beginning their Great Acceleration.
• The world is reaching hyper-connectivity - the globalfinancial crisis
• We are approaching - or have reached - “peak phosphorus”
Steffen et al. 2011
Recent oil price rises“High oil prices are fueling one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history. Oil consumers are paying $4 billion to $5 billion more for crude oil every day than they did just five years ago, pumping more than $2 trillion into the coffers of oil companies and oil-producing nations this year alone.” Steven Mufson, Washington Post, 10 Nov 2007.
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2007; US Bureau of Economic Analysis for GDP deflator. Economagic.com & IEA for West Texas Intermediate crude prices from Sept 2007.
Possible global production path
Source: Energy Watch Group, (2007) "Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook", EWG-Series No. 3/2007, Ottobrunn, Germany, Ludwig-Bölkow-Stiftung for the Energy Watch Group, October, 101 pp. [http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf]
The fate of the global economy hangs on this wedge of uncertainty. Where does the truth lie?
International Cereal Prices
Source: FAO (2008) Crop Prospects and Food Situation, April.
Analysis of the Global Food Crisis
Biggs et al. 2010
Global-scale concatenation of processes produce shocksthat emerge simultaneously, spread rapidly and interact.
The 2008 global food price crisis - (i) the 2007 oil pricespike, (ii) pro-biofuel policies; (iii) reactionary protectionism
The ingredients for a concatenated crisis?
• Powerful global scale drivers• Propagation of shocks through increased global connectivity• Knock-on effects of management responses elsewhere
The Human Enterprise: Early Globalised
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
MODERN STATES
GLOBALISING COMMUNITY
1 %EXXON-MOBILDAIMLER-CHRYSLERMITSUBISHICITIGROUP
14 %
USAJAPANSINGAPOREHONG KONGWESTERN EUROPEAUSTRALIA/NZTAIWAN
5 % SOUTH KOREA(CHINA, INDIA 10%)ESTONIAHUNGARYTHAILAND
15 % BRAZILEGYPTRUSSIASYRIA(CHINA, INDIA 40%)
65 % ANGOLA(CHINA, INDIA 50%)RWANDASUDANZAIRE
T. Ries, Swedish Institute of International Affairs
Business class
Over the edge
Creative societies
Shared responsabilities
Markets first
Tribal society
Security first
Battlefield
Cybertopia
‘Clash of civilizations’
Barbarization
Prism
Just do it
Ecologically driven
Regional stewardship
Global sustainability
Local stewardship
Provincial enterprise
‘The end of history’
‘No Logo’
‘Our Common Future ‘
B2
A1 B1
A2
Hyper individualism
Changing courseNew global age
Have & have- notsThe hundred flowers
Sustainability first
Policy first
Great transitionsTurbulent neighbourhoods
Cultural pluralism
Voluntary simplicity
Market World
Transformed World
Fortress World
New Empires
Change without progress
De Vr i e s 2 00
Have we underestimated howfast the Earth System can change?
K. Steffen
A. Sorteberg
Photo: Brian Stocks
Kurz and Apps 1999
Climate Change and Fire Regimes
In the past 30-50 years, fire frequency and extent haveincreased in Canada, western USA, Siberia, and theMediterranean region.
Drought and Dust Storms
Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity
– Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty)
– 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty)
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
The Anthropocene Stage 3:Sustainability or Collapse
Where on Earth are We Going?
Collapse of Early Civilisations
Top: East Africancivilisation (fromVerschuren et al. 2000)
Middle: Classic MayanCivilisation (fromHodell et al. 2001)
Bottom: Akkadian civilisation (Syria)(from Cullen et al. 2000)
Possible Explanations for the Collapse of Early Civilisations
• Tainter - increasing complexity & decreasing resilience
• Friedman - waves of ’globalisation’ to an upper limit ofsystem compatibility
• Diamond - inflexibility of core societal values
• Scarborough (Maya) - self-organisation - networks of alliances and exchanges; adaptation to dynamics of natural ecosystems. Collapse due to centralisation ofpower around two super-cities and distortion ofnetwork flows.
Image : NASA
’Night Lights’ of Earth
Petit et al. 1999; Keeling and Whorf 2000
Outside the envelope of self-regulation?
A Millennium Scale Perspective ...N
.H. T
empe
ratu
re (°
C)
1000 14001200 1600 1800 2000
0
1
-1
2
YearMann et al. (1999) GRL 26:759-762
2000
From: Nakicenovic 2002
Simulated Night Lights
2070
From: Nakicenovic 2002
Simulated Night Lights
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
Glo
bal
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
IPCC Projections2100 AD
N.H
. Tem
pera
ture
(°
C) 0
0.5
1
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Now
“Committed” Climate Change
Loss of Greenland ice sheet
Earth System moves to a newstate; modern civilisation collapses
Large biodiversity loss;coral reefs disappear
Feedbacks push climate change higher;abrupt changes much more likely;massive impacts to humans
Is Geo-engineering the Answer?
Steffen et al. 2004
Tipping Elements in the Earth System
Source: Schellnhuber, after Lenton et al, PNAS, 2008
Planetary Boundaries
Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene
(Nature, 461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 - 2009)
Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker,Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen, Jonathan A. Foley
Climate Change
Ocean acidification
Ozone depletion
Global Freshwater Use
Rate of Biodiversity
Loss
Biogeochemical loading: Global
N & P Cycles
Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
Land System Change
Chemical Pollution
Planetary Boundaries
E.S. Process Control Variable Boundary State of Knowledge
Climate change CO2 conc 350 ppm Good, but debate onenergy change +1 W m2 boundary position
Ocean acidif. arag. sat ratio 20% reduction Process understood
Stratospheric O3 conc, DU 5% reduction Boundary agreed O3 loss from pre-indust and respected
Atmos aerosols part. conc. TBD Thresholds unknown
P & N cycles N: amt fixed 35 Tg N/yr Boundaries areP: inflow to ocean 10 x pre-indust educated guesses
Freshwater use Blue water use 4000 km3/yr Global aggregate
Land system Fraction of land 15% ice-free Regional distributionchange cultivated land surface is critical
Biodiversity Extinction rate <10 E/MSY Diversity-functioning??
Chem. Pollution Amt emitted TBD Aggregate effects??
Estimate of quantitative evolution of control variables for seven planetary boundaries from pre-industrial levels to the present . The inner (green) shaded nonagon represents the safe operating space with proposed boundary levels at its outer contour. The extent of the wedges for each boundary shows the estimate of current position of the control variable. Points show the estimated time trajectory of each control variable from pre-industrial to the present.
Emission trajectories for 2 C guardrail:Cumulative emissions approach
WBGU 2009
Time
Ris
k of
col
lap
se;
Deg
ree
of u
n-s
ust
ain
abili
ty
Present
SustainabilityTarget
Short-termPragmatism
Short-term policy actions
Long-term and foundational issues
Fischer, Manning et al. 2007
The Sustainability Gap
constant rate 3.2 mm/year
Evolution and Climate Change
Source: Katherine Richardson, Copenhagen University
At the time of Darwin, it was thoughtthat humans had a special, God-givenposition above all other living things.Darwin’s work showed that we AREapes, a part of nature (not above it)and “just” another animal. That insightchallenged deeply held beliefs aboutthe human-environment relationship.
Climate change has evoked a similar level of deep emotion inthe public. Can humanity really affect the functioning of its ownlife support system at the planetary scale? What are theimplications of this for our definition of “progress”, our way of lifeand our future?
The “Sustainability Hierarchy”…
…rather than the “Triple Bottom Line”
After I. Lowe 2005
Economies
Social Systems
Earth’s Life Support System
Hurt not the earth, neither the sea, nor the trees.Revelation 7:3, the Holy Bible
Most Gracious is Allah, Who reveals HimselfIn the Qur'an, in man's IntelligenceAnd in the nature around man.Balance and Justice, Goodness and Care,Are the Laws of His Worlds....
Summary from Surah 55, the Holy Qur'an
Perspectives on the Human-Environment Relationship
Without the willow, how to know the beauty of the wind.Lao She, Buddhist monk
We're only here for a short amount of time to do what we've been put here to do, which is to look after the country. We're only a tool in the cycle of things. …(we) go out into the world and help keep the balance of nature. It's a big cycle of living with the land, and then eventually going back to it....
Vilma Webb, Noongar People, Australian Aborigines, from: 'Elders: Wisdom from Australia's Indigenous Leaders'
©Se
bast
ião
Salg
ado
…The future will depend on the nature of human aspirations, values,preferences and choices…
Sustainability or Collapse?