![Page 1: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
THE AIRPORT DECISION
Key to London’s Growth Strategy
Professor Sir Peter Hall
Shaping a Growing London:
The Place of an Airport
Stratford
Wednesday 18th June 2014
![Page 2: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s People
![Page 3: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s People
![Page 4: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s People
![Page 5: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s People
![Page 6: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
London house prices rise 18% in year fuelling fears of bubble Nationwide's figures put London house prices above pre-crisis peak at an average £362,699, as
gap widens with rest of UK Hilary Osborne
The Guardian, Wednesday 2 April 2014 07.42 BST
London’s People: A Basic Dilemma
![Page 7: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
London’s People: A Basic Dilemma
![Page 8: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
London’s People: A Basic Dilemma
![Page 9: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
London’s People: A Basic Dilemma
![Page 10: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
London’s People: A Basic Dilemma
![Page 11: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
On this basis, the central projection in the SHMA indicates that London will require between approximately 49,000 (2015-2036) and 62,000 (2015-2026) more homes a year. This range incorporates different levels of population change over the period, the time taken to address current need (backlog) and the anticipated under delivery between 2011 and 2015. The 2015-2036 figure of 49,000 additional homes a year provides the basis for the detailed housing need figures set out in this Plan. In light of the projected higher need, especially at the start of the plan period, this figure should be regarded as a minimum.
![Page 12: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s Economy
![Page 13: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s Economy
![Page 14: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s Economy
![Page 15: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: Social Makeup
![Page 16: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014:London’s Transport
![Page 17: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Mayor’s Plan 2014: Key Diagram
![Page 18: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Headlines: London 2020
• Zone 1: All the Advanced Service Jobs (Mega-
Agglomeration Economies – but Big Capital
pushes out Creative Startups?)
• Zone 2: Über-Middles (and displaced startups?)
• Zone 3: Displaced Cling-Ons (Chattering Classes)
– especially Zone 3 East (Victoria Line,
Overground) - Critical role of Opportunity Areas,
especially Stratford/Royals
• Zones 4/5: The big dilemma
• Thames Gateway: unique: major opportunity sites
close to London (elsewhere: NIMBY frontier)
![Page 19: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Big Question: Where will the People Go?
• They can’t fit in London
• The figures don’t add up!
• They can’t go next to London:
• The “sacred” Abercrombie plan
• Plus: Massive NIMBYism
• Must go much further out
• Beyond the NIMBY frontier
• So: 50-80-mile ring
• Except: Thames Gateway:
growth welcome here!
![Page 20: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
1998 / 2014: “Sociable Cities”
• At edge of Greater
South East
• 50-80 miles (80-
130 km.) from
London
• On high-speed rail
lines – fast travel
to London for
those who need
• Clusters of Garden
Cities – Howard’s
Social City
![Page 21: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
1998 / 2014: “Sociable Cities”
• At edge of Greater
South East
• 50-80 miles (80-
130 km.) from
London
• On high-speed rail
lines – fast travel
to London for
those who need
• Clusters of Garden
Cities – Howard’s
Social City
![Page 22: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
1998 / 2014: “Sociable Cities”
• At edge of Greater
South East
• 50-80 miles (80-
130 km.) from
London
• On high-speed rail
lines – fast travel
to London for
those who need
• Clusters of Garden
Cities – Howard’s
Social City
![Page 23: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Thames Gateway Visions: 1995, 2003
![Page 24: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Thames Gateway Visions: 1995, 2003
![Page 25: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Thames Gateway:
Stratford 1999, 2012, 2020
![Page 26: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Thames Gateway:
Stratford 1999, 2012, 2020
![Page 27: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Thames Gateway:
Stratford 1999, 2012, 2020
![Page 28: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –
at last Unstuck?
• Long in gestation
• Little development
• Poor quality
![Page 29: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –
at last Unstuck?
• Long in gestation
• Little development
• Poor quality
• Density controversy
• Higher density:
Needs Rail (DLR,
now Overground)
• Some progress?
![Page 30: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –
at last Unstuck?
• Long in gestation
• Little development
• Poor quality
• Density controversy
• Higher density:
Needs Rail (DLR,
now Overground)
• Some progress?
![Page 31: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –
at last Unstuck?
• Long in gestation
• Little development
• Poor quality
• Density controversy
• Higher density:
Needs Rail (DLR,
now Overground)
• Some progress?
![Page 32: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –
at last Unstuck?
• Long in gestation
• Little development
• Poor quality
• Density controversy
• Higher density:
Needs Rail (DLR,
now Overground)
• Some progress?
![Page 33: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –
at last Unstuck?
• Long in gestation
• Little development
• Poor quality
• Density controversy
• Higher density:
Needs Rail (DLR,
now Overground)
• Some progress?
![Page 34: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
City of Kent:
Ebbsfleet: Stuck Site truly Unstuck?
![Page 35: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
City of Kent:
Ebbsfleet: Stuck Site truly Unstuck?
![Page 36: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
City of Kent:
Ebbsfleet: Stuck Site truly Unstuck?
![Page 37: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
City of Kent:
Ebbsfleet: Stuck Site truly Unstuck?
![Page 38: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
City of Kent:
Regenerating the East Kent Coast?
![Page 39: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
City of Kent:
Regenerating the East Kent Coast?
![Page 40: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
City of Kent:
Regenerating the East Kent Coast?
![Page 41: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Mayor’s Estuary Airport (Isle of Grain)
• Agricultural/reclaimed land
• Compatible with Thames Gateway strategy
• Noise: Impact less than 5% Heathrow equivalent
• Connections: New HSL (just over 30 mins); Crossrail extension; HS1
• Faster than LHR from many Central London locations
• Need to widen M25 – but compatible with current options
• Can be connected to HS2
• Some biodiversity and habitats impacts – but precedents for habitat migration
![Page 42: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
21st-Century Garden City:
Shelter’s Wolfson Prize Vision
![Page 43: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision
• “Heathrow City”: New
residential quarter,
round transport hub
• Terminal buildings for
retail, town and
convention centre
• Focus on education
and commercial
research
• 80k homes, 90k jobs
• Value: £7.5bn a year
![Page 44: THE AIRPORT DECISION - Transport for London · 21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision •“Heathrow City”: New residential quarter, round transport hub •Terminal buildings](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f16bbd415644726ac0d9ad5/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
So: Today’s Key Question!
• 2030: Short-
Term Airport
Fix for
London?
• 2050:
Strategic
Vision for
the Greater
South East?