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International Civil Aviation Organization
THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS
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International Civil Aviation Organization
Integrated Planning for Safety & Efficiency Benefits
Mohamed ElamiriDeputy Director, Air Navigation Bureau
ACI WorldMarrakech, 2 Novembre 2011
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Outline
Air Navigation Integrated Planning • Optimizing Airspace Today• Tomorrow’s NeedsThe Status of Aviation Safety• Today’s Tools• Tomorrow’s Needs
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Tools to Optimize Airspace Today
Safety, Standards
& Infrastructure
Performance‐based Navigation
Reductions in Separation Minima
Civil/Military Cooperation
Measuring Performance Enhancements
Aviation System Block Upgrades
Continuous ClimbOperations
Continuous DescentOperations
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Tomorrow’s Needs
• Global framework is needed to ensure:– Safety is maintained and enhanced – ATM improvement programmes are harmonized– Barriers to future efficiency and environmental gains are removed, at reasonable cost
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Step 1Get Harmonization on the Global Agenda
• Initial NextGen/SESAR Symposium (2008)
• Convened Standards Organization Roundtable (2009)
• Established working agreements with Standards Organizations on shared work programmes
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Step 2Global Aviation System Block Upgrades
• Define global aviation system block upgrades
• For interoperability purposes
• Independent of when and where specific ATM improvement programmes are introduced
ACI World, Marrakech, 2 Novembre 2011
Why this approach?
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The Reality of Our System Today…
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What is a Block Upgrade?
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Canada
We Can Benefit From What Is Already Out There…
Australia
India
China
Russia
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4 Blocks Upgrades are Proposed
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Understanding the Relationships
Optimum Capacity and Flexible Flights
Globally Interoperable
Systems and Data
Efficient Flight Path
Greener Airports
Performance Improvement
Areas
Block 0(Today)
Block 1(2018)
Block 2(2023)
Block 3(2028 & >)
B3‐15B2‐15B1‐15B0‐15
Module
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Step 3 Global Rollout & Feedback
• Held Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium– September 2011– Over 500 participants from Industry, States and International Organizations
• Platform established to enable continuous feedback
http://www2.icao.int/en/GANIS/Pages/Documentation.aspx
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Step 3 Continuing Feedback
• Collect feedback on Block Upgrades Working Document• Block Upgrade Working Document v2, November 2011• Proposed revision of Global Air Navigation Plan (GANP)
– Include technical roadmaps for CNS/AIM, based on ASBUs concept
– Internal review – March 2012– Public consultation – 30 June 2012
• In all 6 official ICAO languages
• Proposed GANP content will be discussed at AN‐Conf/12– 19‐30 November 2012
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Step 4International Agreement at AN‐Conf/12
• Montréal, 19‐30 November 2012• Opportunity to formalize future of infrastructure & equipage • Strategies for longer‐term requirements• Agreement of first series of block upgrades
– Level of certainty for all stakeholders – Encourage more efficient implementation
• Revised GANP– Operational capabilities to
manage ATM system requirements
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– Today’s Tools‐ Reflective– Traffic Growth– Traffic and Accident trends– USOAP and CMA
– Tomorrow’s Needs –– Practicing Safety Management– Working as a System of Systems– Developing proactive safety indicators
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Status of Aviation Safety
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Global Traffic by Region (2006‐2010)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Dep
artures (M
illions)
APAC ESAF EUR/NAT MID NACC SAM WACAF
Sources: Official Airlines Guide (OAG) – Scheduled Commercial Traffic
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Five year moving average
112122
138
113121
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Num
ber o
f Acciden
ts
Accidents and Fatal Accidents per YearScheduled Commercial Traffic – MTOW > 2250 kg
112122
138
113121
15 15 16 1319
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Num
ber o
f Acciden
ts
Accidents and Fatal Accidents per YearScheduled Commercial Traffic – MTOW > 2250 kg
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Global Accidents (2001‐2010)
Fatal Accidents
All Accidents
On average, 1 out of 7 accidents have been fatal over the past 10 years
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Runway Safety Related
System or Component Failure
Turbulence
Other
Loss of Control Inflight
Controlled Flight into Terrain
Unknown
Inflight Fire
Percentage of All Accidents
Accidents Fatal Accidents Fatalities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Runway Safety Related
System or Component Failure
Turbulence
Other
Loss of Control Inflight
Controlled Flight into Terrain
Unknown
Inflight Fire
Percentage of All Accidents
Accidents Fatal Accidents Fatalities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Runway Safety Related
System or Component Failure
Turbulence
Other
Loss of Control Inflight
Controlled Flight into Terrain
Unknown
Inflight Fire
Percentage of All Accidents
Accidents Fatal Accidents Fatalities
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Accidents in Detail‐Main Killers
Accidents & Related Fatalities by Occurrence CategoriesScheduled Commercial Traffic – MTOW > 2 250 kg (Yrs 2006‐ 2010 )
Runway Safety Related
System or Component Failure
Loss of Control Inflight
Controlled Flight into Terrain
ICAO SAFETY PRIORITIES
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61.0%
40.3%
71.0%65.9% 65.8% 66.8%
36.4%
59.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
APAC ESAF EUR/NAT MID NACC SAM WACAF
Effective Im
plem
entatio
n %
61.0%
40.3%
71.0%65.9% 65.8% 66.8%
36.4%
59.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
APAC ESAF EUR/NAT MID NACC SAM WACAF
Effective Im
plem
entatio
n %
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Global USOAP Results Average Effective Implementation by Region
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Meeting Tomorrow’s Needs
Safety Priorities
Runway Safety
Loss of Control
CFIT
Information Sharing
Regulatory Authorities
Airlines
Airport Operators
ANSPs
CLARITY IMPROVEMENT
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Government / Regulator
Carriers / Airlines
Aerodromes
Air Navigation Service Providers
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The Aviation System
Carriers / Airlines
Air Navigation Service Providers
Aerodromes
Government / Regulator
Carriers / Airlines
Air Navigation Service Providers
Aerodromes
Government / Regulator
Carriers / Airlines
Air Navigation Service Providers
Aerodromes
Government / Regulator
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SSP
Regulators Airlines AerodromesAir Navigation Services
GASP
Practicing Safety Management ‐As An Aviation System
SMS
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Extending our Safety Information
ICAO / ACI
Aerodromes
Compliance Score / USOAP‐CMA
Regulators
ICAO / IATA IOSA
Airlines
ICAO / CANSO
Air Navigation Services Providers
Complementing USOAP‐CMA with industry led indicators
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Expanding Safety Analysis Capabilities
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http://www.icao.int/iSTARS
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Next Steps
• New GASP (2012) and GANP (2014) to serve as Strategic Plans
• First Safety REPORT by end 2011• First Infrastructure REPORT planned for 2014• Address the known killers: Runway safety and Loss of Control
• High‐level ICAO strategic planning document co‐signed by all major stakeholders
• Address Significant Safety Concerns and Reduce regional differences in safety performance
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Working Together
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Global PlansGASP/GANP
Regional Plans
RASG/PIRG
National Plans
States International Organizations
Regional Organizations
Regulators
Service Providers
PARTNERS
Framework
Feedback
ICAO
Airspace users
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Working Together
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Regional & Sub‐Regional Organizations
International Organizations
STATES
SAFETY
GASP Implementation
(GSIs)
Regional Aviation Safety Group
(RASG)
EFFICIENCY
GANP Implementation
(GPIs)
Planning Implementation Regional Group
(PIRG)
ICAO
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How ACI and ICAO can work together
• ACI APEX programme;• Aerodrome performance indicators; • Sharing of safety information;• Development and implementation of GASP and GANP;
• Global and regional ICAO initiatives.• Runway Safety
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Thank you
• RASGS Operational• RASGS Planned
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International Civil Aviation Organization
THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS