Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional Perspective
May 24, 2006
Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO
Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East AsiaPolitical & Security Dimension
1) April 13 Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism?
2) April 20 Regionalism & Regional Integration
3) April 27 Regionalism in Asia
4) May 11 East Asian Community and East Asian Summit
5) May 18 New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
6) May 24 Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional Perspective
Review 1) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001-Present)
Strategic Circumstances
US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia
Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated
Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation
Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms
Members
Functions
Inclusive / Regional( Geographical
Cooperation)
Exclusive / Functional( Regional Security
Complex)
ForcefulCompetitive
(Deterrence/Response)
(Collective Security)
Japan-US Alliance
Korea-US Alliance
UnforcefulCooperative
( CBM / PD )
Shanghai Cooperation Organization
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)
Shangri-la Dialogue
Proliferation Security Initiative
Anti-Terrorism Cooperation
Non-Traditional Security
Review 2) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
Terrorism as a National Security Threat
September 11, 2001 World Trade Center Bldg. ( NYC ) Department of Defense (Washington DC)
More than 3000 had died Definition of “War”
“More than 1000 dead in a conbat” Rhetric of “War against Terror”
The New Age of Terrorism
New Trends of Terrorism Terrorism has become bloodier. Terrorist have developed new financial resources, so
that they are less dependent on state sponsors. Terrorists have evolved new model of organization. Terrorists can now wage global campaigns. Terrorists have effectively exploited new
communications technologies. Some terrorists have moved beyond tactics to
strategy, although none of them have achieved their stated long range goals.
― Brian Jenkins, “The New Age of Terrorism” (RAND, 2006)
Terrorism has become bloodier
Death Event Suspect3000+ NYC/Washington DC (2001) Al-Qaeda477 Iran Avadan Arson (1979) Anti-Govt Group412 Massacre in Algeria (1997) GIA270 Pan-Am 103 Bombing (1988) Libya241 Beirut US Marine Corp (1983) Islamic Front223 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda168 Oklahoma Bldg (1995) Mcbay&Nichols115 Korean Air Bombing (1987) North Korea
Casualty5500 Aum Salin Gas Attack (1995) Aum-Shinrikyo4000 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda
Spatial Analysis of 9-11 AttackSpatial Analysis of 9-11 Attack
SudanSudan (( terterrorist rorist
cells/trainingcells/training))
SudanSudan (( terterrorist rorist
cells/trainingcells/training))
Afghanistan Afghanistan (HQ/training/financing)(HQ/training/financing)
Afghanistan Afghanistan (HQ/training/financing)(HQ/training/financing)
Saudi Saudi ArabiaArabia (( finanfinan
cingcing))
Saudi Saudi ArabiaArabia (( finanfinan
cingcing))
Indonesia/Indonesia/PhilippinesPhilippines (( terrorist terrorist
cells/trainingcells/training))
Indonesia/Indonesia/PhilippinesPhilippines (( terrorist terrorist
cells/trainingcells/training))
Russia Russia
(weapons)(weapons)
Russia Russia
(weapons)(weapons)
PakistanPakistan
(terrorist (terrorist cells)cells)
PakistanPakistan
(terrorist (terrorist cells)cells)
EuropeEurope
(recruitin(recruiting)g)
EuropeEurope
(recruitin(recruiting)g) USUS(( terroristerroris
t t cells/trainingcells/training
))
USUS(( terroristerrorist t
cells/trainingcells/training))
Terrorist Organizations (Al-Terrorist Organizations (Al-Qaeda)Qaeda)
Sub-Sub-HQHQ
(Mutant)(Mutant)
Sub-Sub-HQHQ
Sub-Sub-HQHQ
Main HQMain HQ
= = Terrorist CellTerrorist Cell Hub CellHub Cell
SupporterSupporter
Sleeper CellSleeper Cell
Patterns of TerrorismUS Perspective
Conventional Conventional WeaponsWeapons
Non-TraditionalNon-TraditionalWeaponsWeapons
Domestic Domestic TerrorismTerrorism
OverseasOverseasTerrorismTerrorism
World Trade Center Bombing (1993)World Trade Center Bombing (1993)
9.11 terrorism9.11 terrorism // Anthrax (2001)Anthrax (2001)
Kenya/Tanzania US Embassy Bombing (1998)
Aum Shinrikyo Salin Gas Attack (1996)
Typology of International Terrorism
Territory-oriented Terrorism Europe / Middle East
Palestine (PLA) / Northern Ireland / Bask / Kosovo Asia
Sri Lanka / Kashmir / Ache / MILF
Ideal-oriented Terrorism Political Terrorism
Far Left / Far Right / Anarchist Religious Terrorism
Islamic Fundamentalist / Christian Fundamentalist Religious Cults
Social Issue-oriented Terrorism Anti-abortion / Animal Protection / Environmental
Preservation Personal Delusion Terrorism
Unabomber
Indigenous Indigenous MeasuresMeasures
Cooperation Cooperation with Allies with Allies and Friendsand Friends
Regional Regional CooperationCooperation
Global Global CooperationCooperation
Terrorist Terrorist OrganizatioOrganizationn
SurroundinSurrounding g EnvironmenEnvironmentt
I I PreventionPrevention
Information Information AnalysisAnalysis
InvestigationInvestigation
Border Border ControlControl
Intelligence Intelligence SharingSharing
Capacity Capacity BuildingBuilding
RecommendationRecommendationEvaluationEvaluationAssesmentAssesment
IntelligenceIntelligence
II II ConsequencConsequence e ManagemenManagementt
Anti-Anti-terrorism terrorism ExerciseExercise
urban-urban-suburban suburban coordinationcoordination
Cooperation Cooperation in case of in case of emergencyemergency
Joint SeminarJoint Seminar
III III Anti-Anti-Terrorism Terrorism and Policingand Policing
InvestigationInvestigationTrialTrialSubduementSubduement
Cooperation Cooperation on on Investigation, Investigation, Justice, Justice, MilitaryMilitary
Information Information SharingSharing
Joint ActionJoint Action
Information Information SharingSharing Fact FindingFact Finding
IV.IV. New New MeasuresMeasures
Lessons Lessons LearnedLearned New PactNew Pact New ConceptNew Concept
New TreatyNew Treaty
Norm Norm CreationCreation
Categorization of Counter-Terrorism
Source: Naofumi Miyasaka (2004)Source: Naofumi Miyasaka (2004)
US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism(1) “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (-2003)
Patterns of Global Terrorism Officially recognizing more than 30 terrorist
organizations
Four Policy Principles on Counter Terrorism make no concessions to terrorists and strike no deals bring terrorists to justice to their crimes isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor
terrorism to force them to change their behavior Bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of those
countries that work with the US and require assistance
―US State Department ”Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003)
US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism (2) “US Strategy for Combating Terrorism” (2003)
Terrorist Organizations in Asia (1)cf “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003)
Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)-Mindanao Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-Mindanao Kumplan Mujahideen Malaysia (KMM)-Malaysia Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) Yousif Longpi-Indonesia Jemaah Islamiah (JI) - Riduan Isamuddin:
Ties to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Zacarias Moussaoui, Khalid al-Mihdar, Nawaf al-Hazmi-2000 Al Qaeda Summit in Kuala Lumpur
Abu-Sayyaf Group (ASG) - Philippines Tamil Tigers - Phuket, Thailand Sri Lankan Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
These organizations are all related through their shared ideology of radical Islamic nationalism revolving around the preservation of Islamic culture in response to real and perceived aggression.
Islamic Jihad Group -Throughout Central Asia & South Asia Japanese Red Army - Japan East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - Western Xinjiang pro
vince/China Cambodian Freedom Fighters - Cambodia & U.S. Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) - Philippines Communist Party of Philippines / New People’s Army AUM Shinrikyo (AUM) - Japan & Russia Abu Nidal Organization (ANO)-Asia, Middle East and Europe
Terrorist Organizations in Asia (2)
Southeast Asia as Terrorist Bed
Areas with Major Islamic Population Middle East 19.5% (238,000,000) Indonesia 17% (200,000,000) South Asia 25% (300,000,000) Africa 20% (240,000,000) Turkey 10% (125,000,000)
Characteristic of Southeast Asia’s Extremists Muslim Youth Movement Diffused Centralized Command & Control External Support and Recruitment Early Stages of Organizational Development Gaining Momentum in Technics and Efficiency (eg Bali B
ombing)
Regional Cooperation in Asia on Combating Terrorism
APEC APEC Action Plan for Combating the Financing of Terrorism (2002) APEC Counter Terrorism Action Plans (2003) Counter-Terrorism Task Force (2003) Fund for Regional Trade and Security Initiative (2004)
ARF Statement on Measures Against Terrorist Financing (2002) Statement on Cooperative counter-terrorist action on border
security (2003) Statement Strengthening Transport Security Against International
Terrorism (2004) Statement on Sharing and Intelligence Exchange and Document
Integrity and Security in Enhancing Cooperation to Combat Terrorism and Other Transnational Crimes(2005)
ASEAN+3 Joint Statement (2001-2005)
Bilateral and Ad-hoc Cooperationon Combating Terrorism
Regional Groupings Bali Process
Bali Regional Ministerial Meeting on Counter-Terrorism (2004) Legal Issue Working Group
Southeast Asia Center for Counter-Terrorism Malaysia
Bilateral Cooperation Japan-(ROK, Australia, Russia, EU) Among ASEAN Member States Australia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand)
Ad-hoc (functional) Cooperation Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI): Japan, Australia,
Singapore Container Security Initiative (CSI) : Japan, China, Singapore,
Malaysia Taiwan
Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism
Economic Sphere Security SphereEconomic Sphere Security Sphere
Global FrameworkGlobal Framework GATT / IMF UN / MultinationalGATT / IMF UN / Multinational
Mega-RegionalismMega-Regionalism APEC ARF / OSCE APEC ARF / OSCE
Regionalism Regionalism EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN
Coalition Coalition Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism
Bilateralism Bilateralism Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance