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Balancing Science and Discourse: Using Models to Support Grown Up Conversations
David Rees
Founding Partner
Synergia Ltd
Paul Atkins
Chief Executive
NERI
ENERGY AT THE CROSSROADS ENERGY INNOVATION FOR A SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY
WELLINGTON 2013
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"I was distressed by the poor
quality of the debate
surrounding energy. I was also
noticing so much greenwash
from politicians and big
business. I was tired of the
debate – the extremism, the
nimbyism, the hairshirt.”
It’s time to start having gown up
conversations
David J.C. MacKay FRS
Professor of Natural
Philosophy
Department of Physics
Cavendish Laboratory,
University of Cambridge.
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Science & Public Discourse
Thomas Dietz
Chair of US National Research
Council Committee on Human
Dimensions of Global Change
Professor of Sociology……
Michigan State University
From:
Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System
Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.
London, Island Press.
“What is needed are
practices that respect both
scientific analysis and
public discourse”
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Question 1
From:
Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System
Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.
London, Island Press.
“How can the public be
engaged in a way that
leads to competent
deliberation using the best
available science?”
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Question 2
From:
Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System
Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.
London, Island Press.
How can the science be
engaged while taking
proper account of the limits
of our knowledge and the
uncertainties inherent in
even the best analysis?
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Question 3
From:
Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System
Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.
London, Island Press.
How can a process make
use of quantitative
information while giving
proper weight to qualitative
information?
And
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Question 4
From:
Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System
Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.
London, Island Press.
How can discourse
proceed in ways that are
respectful of all viewpoints
while encouraging learning
and change on the part of
individuals and groups?
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Challenge #1 (nested systems)
The events we see
The structure that creates
The patterns that emerge
We can only react to events
We can at least prepare if we see the patterns
Only when we understand the causal structure can we design a future that is different
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Challenge #2 (feedback)
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The Economist
December 2006
Challenge #3 (time)
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“Academics and pundits love to throw
around the term ‘social capital’
and debate its nuances,
but most of them couldn’t
organize a block party.”
-- Ed Chambers
Challenge #4 (our skills)
Chambers ET, Cowan MA.
Roots for Radicals.
New York: Continuum, 2003..
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“The challenge of involving the community
is especially difficult if one has been trained,
as I have been trained, to be an arrogant,
elitist prima donna.
I am the ‘expert,’ after all, and I help people
by sharing my expertise.”
-- Len Syme
Syme SL. Social determinants of health: the community as an empowered partner.
Preventing Chronic Disease 2004: 1(1) Accessed December 15, 2003.
Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2004/jan/syme.htm
Challenge #5 (our attitudes)
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GOOD BAD
“Twaddle emissions are high at the moment
because people get emotional (for example about
wind farms or nuclear power) and no-one talks
about numbers. Or if they do mention numbers,
they select them to sound big, to make an
impression, and to score points in arguments” Prof David MacKay (2009)
Sustainable Energy - without the hot air
Model #1: 2050 Calculator
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From: Sustainable Energy - without the hot air
David JC MacKay
If we find consumption is much less than conceivable sustainable production, then we can say “good, maybe we can live sustainably; let’s look into the economic, social, and environmental costs of the sustainable alternatives, and figure out which of them deserve the most research and development; if we do a good job, there might not be an energy crisis.”
Energy Balance Sheet
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From: Sustainable Energy - without the hot air
David JC MacKay
Energy Balance Sheet
This picture says “it doesn’t matter what the economics of sustainable power are: there’s simply not enough sustainable power to support our current lifestyle; massive change is coming.”
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2050 Calculator (Future Scenarios – Going Beyond Polarities)
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Model #2: C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support)
To improve understanding of important climate dynamics among:
– policymakers & negotiators,
– businesses, educators, civil society,
– media, and
– the public,
to help ensure that climate policy is informed by vetted, peer-reviewed science.
http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard
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Predicting Climate Impacts
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Stopping Growth in Co2 NOW!!
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Simplified Carbon Cycle Sector
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Simulation-Based Role-Playing
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Models are ‘virtual worlds’ that allow what
Donald Schön calls a ‘reflective conversation
with the situation’.
Donald Schön (1983)
The Reflective Practitioner
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Using Systems Modelling to Integrate Multiple Workstreams within Energy Sustainability Research (2011) (Work Conducted for University of Otago Energy Research Centre)
David Rees, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand
Faced with data coming from multiple research streams within the multi-disciplinary research team, the research centre wanted ways of integrating their findings. The purpose of the modelling was to distill the key findings from the different research streams and any uncover issues that may have emerged during the research process. Phase II of that research project is now underway and over the next four years we will be working with the research team, using dynamic modelling to integrate the research workstreams, and use the simulation capabilites to explore future scenario arising out of the research.
Phase II (2012 – 2016) Energy Culture II Energy sustainability in households, transport and SMEs
Renewable Energy & the Smart Grid Exploring the supply and demand dynamics in a future based on extensive use of renewable energy sources
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Regional Transport in Canterbury: Health Impact Analysis (2010) (Work Conducted for Environment Canterbury)
David Rees, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand Dr. Adrian Field, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand
In October 2009 Environment Canterbury initiated a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of its Regional Land Transport Strategy. The aim of the HIA was to assess the links between transport planning, health determinants, and health outcomes for the Canterbury RLTS. This simulation model supported the HIA by exploring the links between transport planning and health outcomes that were identified in the initial scoping workshop. The HIA identified some of the linkages, such as those between safety and cycle use and focused its analysis on three key areas; safety, mode choice and healthier environments. The aim of the simulation model was to help inform policy by quantifying some of the key linkages and the size and timing of potential health impacts resulting from policy options being considered in the RLTS.
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Options for Dementia Care (2010/11) (Work Conducted for Health Workforce New Zealand)
David Rees, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand Dr. Geoff McDonnell, Adaptive Care Systems, University of NSW Dr. Ray Naden, Clinical Specialist
In work we undertook for Health Workforce New Zealand, Synergia explored the opportunities for improving care for people with moderate dementia in the home and community settings, and the potential impact this may have upon admissions to aged residential care (ARC). The report provided an overview of the modelling used to explore the dynamics of home-based care – specifically carer stress – and its impact upon reducing admissions to ARC. The report then provided a description of the models of care required to bring that reduction about. Because dementia is an area in which there is a paucity of data, our modelling had to bring together information from a number of sources. Furthermore, it had to allow a range of scenarios to be run under a range of different assumptions. The model allows stakeholders to obtain a richer understanding of what the future possibilities are, the constraints upon those possibilities, and the variables that have an impact upon determining which scenario is more likely to come to pass.
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A Population-Based Approach to Planning Mental Health Services in Primary Care (2010) ((Work Conducted for Health Research Council)
David Rees, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand Philip Gandar, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand
Mild
Symptoms
Moderate
SymptomsSevere
Symptomsbecoming
moderatebecoming
severe
need for MH
services
PMHC
interventions
SMHC
interventions
recovering
moderaterecovering
severerecovering
mild
adequacy of
provider resources
quality of
care
prevention &management of risk
factors
investing in
service
improvement capability of
resources
amount of
resources
investing in risk
management
funds
available
investing in social
determinants
Social
Strengthchange in
social strength
model of care
requirements
service
demandaccess
levels
service
provision
<funds
available>
model of
careaverage level of
functioning
NoSignificantSymptoms developing
symptoms
developing moderate
symptoms
developing severe
symptoms
individual
attributes
RequiringSecondary
Careentering
secondary care
discharging from
secondary care
The issues that any region faces in planning Primary Mental Health Care (PMHC) are varied and complex. There is no one solution that can be applied across the country, and because of this it is important that planners in each region know their own population and its needs, and the characteristics of the people and resources who can respond to them.
This model is designed to help facilitate conversations about PMHC in local regions, so that they can design solutions that best fit their particular circumstances. It takes a systems approach because we know that any solution that does help improve mental health services will be required to address many issues. Isolating a single issue simply will not work. To facilitate the conversations we have designed a model of the key elements within PMHC and how those elements link together. The model is based on our conversations with planners and providers within each DHB and focuses on key themes that are common across all.
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Understanding the System Exploring Plausible Futures
Supporting Scientific
Analysis and Public
Discourse
Multi-stakeholder Dialogue
and Learning
Policy Models: Supporting Grown Up Conversations
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The true system, the real
system, is our present
construction of systematic
thought itself, rationality
itself, and if a factory is
torn down but the
rationality which produced
it is left standing, then that
rationality will simply
produce another factory
Robert M. Pirsig (1974)
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry
into Values
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