Download - Swirling a vortex
Swirling a Vortex of Numbers to see animal populations’ futures
David Thompson (Bayard Middle School) & Diana Cheng (Towson University)http://tinyurl.com/p673fr7
Common Core State Standards for Mathematical Practice
• Modeling with Mathematics: how the biological phenomenon of population change can be modeled graphically – Experiment which mimics species’ changes in
population– Hypothesize & test ways to increase the population by
changing relevant parameters • Using appropriate tools strategically: Computer software
& spreadsheets, graphing calculators
Total # of Species & Threatened Species
Source: IUCN Red List
Quantities considered for classifications
% population reduction in 10 years Mature
population size
Reduction in geographic range
Tiger: Endangered since 1986
IUCN Red List Categories (2001)
Criteria for Threatened Levels(IUCN, 2001)
Table 1: IUCN Classifications
Examine Table 1 and answer the following questions regarding classifications of species’ threatened levels:• a. An animal’s population table is presented below. How
should this species be classified?Year Population size2000 10002010 700
• b. Suppose an animal’s population is 750 mature individuals and there is a 50% population reduction over a 10 year period. How would this species be classified?
• c. Provide a scenario in which an animal’s population is increasing, yet the species is still classified as endangered (EN).
A Technology-Enhanced Experiment
Vortex 10 software– Developed by the IUCN
Conservation Breeding Specialist Group & the Chicago Zoological Society
– Provided at no cost– http://vortex10.org/
Vortex10.aspx
• Some parameters:– Initial population size– Carrying capacity– % of adult females /
males breeding– Mortality rates– # of offspring per female