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Sea Level Rise, Inundation Risks, andHow to Live With Them
www.wetlandswatch.org
Skip StilesExecutive Director, Wetlands Watch
January 25, 2011
Hampton Waterways Committee
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Virginia Climate Change Commission:Virginia Climate Change Commission:
Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts
www.wetlandswatch.org
At Least 2.3 feet of sea level rise (up to 5.2 feet) innext 100 years
3.1 o C increase in average temperature Increase in Rainfall Intensity (~11%)
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Sea Level Rise Virginias BiggestSea Level Rise Virginias BiggestChallengeChallenge
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EPA 2009
Recent Historical Sea Level RiseRecent Historical Sea Level Rise
www.wetlandswatch.org
Rise +
Fall -
Hot
Cold
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Glaciers 2 miles thick over New York =
Sea Level 360 feet lower
Recent Historical Sea Level RiseRecent Historical Sea Level Rise
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John Earle /Virginian-Pilot
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ~ 20,000 Years Ago
- 360 Feet
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Recent Historical Sea Level RiseRecent Historical Sea Level RiseLast Big Melt of glaciers = oceans 4-6 mabove present sea level with +3 o C
temperatures
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Impact Crater
~ 35 million
years ago
Previous Coastline?~150,000 Years Ago
(+5 m)
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Recent Historical Sea Level RiseRecent Historical Sea Level Rise
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14,000 YEARS AGO
10,000 YEARS AGO
7,000 YEARS AGO
5,000 YEARS AGO
Source: UNC Research Laboratories of Archeology
RECENT MID-ATLANTIC SEA LEVEL RISE
Depth BelowCurrent SeaLevel (inMeters)
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Norfolk/Virginia Beach
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Land Sinking
Land Rising
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One foot
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Virginia has the highest NOAA current and predicted sea levelincreases on East Coast
Outside of NewOrleans, HamptonRoads is largestpopulation area athighest risk from SeaLevel Rise in the USWetlands Watch - 2007
EPA 2008www.wetlandswatch.org
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100 year Sea Level Rise Projections (2008)
~1 1.7 feetGLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE2.8 5.3 mm/yr from thermal expansion andmelting of land glaciers (Rhamstorf)
What Makes up our Relative Sea Level Rise?
~ .6 feet
Relative Sea Level Rise intidewater/coastal Virginia
An additional ~2 mm/yr due to regionalsubsidence from
isostatic rebound
groundwater removal meteorite impact
www.wetlandswatch.org
S e a
R i s i n g
L a n
d F a
l l i n g
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DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day noreaster 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving noreaster 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin noreasters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin noreasters (#2) 3.12 feet
Source NOAA Tides and Currents www.wetlandswatch.org
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MLWMSL
MHWMHHW
Limit of Development
Mean Higher High Water = lower limit of development
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DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day noreaster 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving noreaster 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin noreasters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin noreasters (#2) 3.12 feet
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DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day noreaster 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving noreaster 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin noreasters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin noreasters (#2) 3.12 feet
- 1.5 feet in1906
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Built 1904Built 1902
P a r a d i s e C r e e k c a 1 8 5 0
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1933 Hurricane - storm of record
Oct 06 noreaster in 1906
Oct 06 noreaster in 2106
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Veterans Day 2009 Noreaster
www.wetlandswatch.org
~ 5 feet
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DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day noreaster 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving noreaster 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin noreasters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin noreasters (#2) 3.12 feet
+ 2.3 ft.
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Examples of Climate ChangeExamples of Climate Change
ChallengesChallenges
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What Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for StormWhat Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for StormSurge?Surge?
4+ feet of surge = category 1 hurricane
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What Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for StormWhat Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for StormSurge?Surge?
2.3 feet of Relative Sea Level Rise
4+ feet of surge = category 1 hurricane
+
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What Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for StormWhat Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for StormSurge?Surge?
Category 2 hurricane surge (6-8 feet)
2110 Category 1 Surge Flooding
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Light RailNorfolkGeneralHospital
St. Patricks
ODU
N S Piers
www.wetlandswatch.or
NorfolkTerminals
East Ocean ViewRedevelopment
2110 Category 1 Surge Flooding
Category 1 hurricane in 2010
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Sh li T B /H i V l Ri k
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Shoreline Tax Base/Housing Values at Risk
LEGEND
Purple
Blue
Green
Yellow
Red
V A L U E
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Kristen Lentz Norfolk Director of Utilities
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Upper Tide Line(+1.6ft)
Ches Bay ActBuffer
Tidal Shorelinein 2100
Chesapeake BayPreservation ActCovers theZones we needto worry aboutwith sea levelrise
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www.wetlandswatch.org
Ft. MonroeRedevelopment
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Hamptons Bayside and location of proposed development
Chesapeake Bay
www.wetlandswatch.org
B e a c h R d .
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Shoreline Recession in Grandview/Hampton
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www.wetlandswatch.org
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FEMA Post Hazard Mitigation Hurricane IsabelFEMA Post Hazard Mitigation Hurricane Isabel$4.5 million program in Norfolk $4.5 million program in Norfolk
www.wetlandswatch.org
Ho se fine Roads storm ater s stems etc ????
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House fine. Roads, storm water systems, etc.????
www.wetlandswatch.org
~$1.23 million
R a is e o n e b lo c k 1 8
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Front-Line City in Virginia Tackles Rise in Sea
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INFILL LOT IN NORFOLK- PERMITS APPROVED 2009 in small tidal
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event on 2-7-10 shows bad judgement
ONLY ACCESS TO INFILL LOT IN NORFOLK- during minor tidal event on
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g2-7-10
ACCESS TO NORFOLK APARTMENTS APPROVED/BUILT 2009 during
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minor tidal event 2-07-10 road must be elevated = $$??
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Impact of Sea level Rise on Beaches
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300 FEET
Impact of Sea Level Rise on Virginia Beach
f l h
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Impact of Sea Level Rise on Virginia Beach
2 foot sea level rise = loss of 200+ feet of beach
2100 Shoreline(max)
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Vi i i B h S 2107
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Virginia Beach Summer 2107
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New Point Comfort Lighthouse
Mathews, VA
From 1885 to now shoreline hasmoved mile
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Climate Change Impacts Can be Seen Now inClimate Change Impacts Can be Seen Now inVirginiaVirginia
Coastline on the Move whos responsible for safety and
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access to this house in 5-10 years?
www.wetlandswatch.org
ROAD
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Sea-level rise on VAs Eastern Shore
Tangier Island
global sea level rise = +27.2 inchesNWF Study onChes Bay
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Now
National Wildlife Federation Sea Level rise and Coastal Habitats in the
Chesapeake Bay Region
Lower Peninsula
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+.69meters
National Wildlife Federation Sea Level rise and Coastal Habitats in the
Chesapeake Bay Region
Lower Peninsula
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+ 1 meter
National Wildlife Federation Sea Level rise and Coastal Habitats in the
Chesapeake Bay Region
Lower Peninsula
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Superfund/Hazardous Waste sites near sealevel in Hampton Roads need re-evaluation
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Awareness and Urgency isAwareness and Urgency isGrowingGrowing
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We will see the ocean creep up into backyardsand witness increased flooding during
rainstorms and at high tide. Only those with noconcern for the future can afford to ignore thisdevelopment.
State of the Region Hampton Roads 2009
Awareness is Growing
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Federal Response Has Started
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Planning ToolsPlanning Tools
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HRPDC 3-year coastalzone study on climate
change(one of three in state 2009-2011)
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Federally-Mandated Planning Opportunities
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FEMAUS DOT
Federally Mandated Planning Opportunities
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Climate Change
Climate change poses a serious and growing threat to Virginia s roads, railways,ports, utility systems, and other critical infrastructure. Higher temperatures,rising sea levels, increased potential of flooding, more buckled pavements due toheat, and lower employee productivity due to increased illness are some of thepotential implications of climate change. Elevated atmospheric temperatureswill lead to rising sea levels that will cause storm surges, coastal flooding, anderosion more severe than occurs today. Temperature rise and the threat of morefrequent and intense heat waves can also seriously impair critical infrastructuresuch as roads and bridges as they will be more prone to failure due to extremeheat expansion and contraction. (p18)
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Hazard Mitigation Plansare Starting to Deal with
Sea Level Rise
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Floodplain Management Plansare Starting to Include ClimateChange and Sea Level Rise
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Comprehensive Land Use PlanningComprehensive Land Use Planning
Done in every locality every five years Takes a long-range view of localitys development Public involvement guaranteed
Can lead to changes in zoning, etc.
Comprehensive Plans Underway or Scheduled Soon
Virginia Beach 2010Chesapeake 2010-11Norfolk 2011Hampton 2010-11
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Comp Plans Have Started to
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1-g Collaborate with local,
regional, and state agenciesin planning for climatechange.
Planning for climate changecan help county decisionmakers address the problemof sea level rise, and assesspotential economicopportunities in respondingto changing business andindustrial markets. Such
efforts should be done inconjunction with other government entities,including NorthamptonCounty, A-NPDC, and theVirginia state government.
www.wetlandswatch.org
Look at Climate Change
Recent Comprehensive Plans Getting Better
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p g
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Next Steps?Next Steps?
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Mapping Modeling - Impact Assessments
Economic Analysis What is the Cost of DoingNothing?
Begin to Develop Shoreline Solutions
Develop a Local Government Toolkit and startusing it
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High Resolution DigitalMaps are on the way
15 cm vertical (9accuracy)
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Total Economic Impact of
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Anthropogenic Ecological
Short term Long term
$126,230,366.20 $185,765,366.80 $4,239,764.75 $63,685,680.69
Total Economic Impact ofSelected Areas within the
Middle Peninsula
Total Short term Costs of SelectedAreas in the Middle Peninsula
$157,470,131.60 $211,916,046.90
Total Long term Costs of Selected Areas in the Middle
Peninsula
$187,005,132.10 $249,451,074.50
MPPDC Lewie Lawrence
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Burke Environmental Associates
Living Shorelines and Sea Level Rise
M i g r a t i o n Sea Level Rise
Breakwater Elevation
Local Government Adaptation Toolkit
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+=
Local Government Adaptation ToolkitNearly Finished!
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S
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Summary..
Sea Level Rise is being experienced today in Virginia intidewater we see it as higher storm surges
Localities must plan for sea level rise using land use, emergencymanagement, economic, and natural resources planning tools some Virginia localities have started
Virginia localities are starting work on sea level rise adaptation.
Citizens need to get involved in long range plans in their communities
www.wetlandswatch.org
Climate Change Work Pays off in the Present
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S T O RM S U RG E P RO T E C T I O N
Source of Sea Level Rise is of Little Importance to
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Hampton Roads
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