Download - State of Retail Q1 2012 Final (Comscore)
May 2012
State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012
Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comScore, Inc.
Andrew Lipsman, VP Industry Analysis, comScore, Inc.
Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 2 business days of today’s webinar
2 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Data sourced from comScore’s global panel of 2 million Internet
users via behavioral tracking and custom surveys
E-Commerce data includes all worldwide buying on U.S.
sites
Unless explicitly stated otherwise, the term e-Commerce
refers to online retail spending, as measured by
comScore, which excludes travel, autos and auctions
Behavioral activity through March 2012 measured via the
fixed Internet
Survey conducted week of April 30, 2012 (n=1987)
Consumer Measurements:
– Site Visitation
– Online Buying
– Attitudes and Sentiment
– Demographic Segments
– Mobile and portable e-Commerce
2 million person panel
360°View of Consumer Behavior Analysis Parameters
Web Visiting & Search Behavior Online
Advertising Exposure
Advertising Effectiveness
Demographics, Lifestyles & Attitudes
Media & Video Consumption
Transactions
Online & Offline
Buying
Mobile Internet Usage & Behavior
PANEL
3 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005- Q1
2005- Q2
2005- Q3
2005- Q4
2006- Q1
2006- Q2
2006- Q3
2006- Q4
2007- Q1
2007- Q2
2007- Q3
2007- Q4
2008- Q1
2008- Q2
2008- Q3
2008- Q4
2009- Q1
2009- Q2
2009- Q3
2009- Q4
2010- Q1
2010- Q2
2010- Q3
2010- Q4
2011- Q1
2011- Q2
2011- Q3
2011- Q4
2012- Q1
Validation of comScore Sales Data:
Comparison of comScore data to U.S. Department of Commerce
Quarterly U.S. e-Commerce Growth* vs. YA Source: comScore & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)
% G
row
th v
s. Y
A
Dept. of Commerce (DOC) comScore Estimate of DOC
Correlation: 0.93
*Note: To be consistent with DOC, comScore estimate excludes
travel and event tickets but includes auction fees and autos.
4 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
State of the Economy
A Review of Key Macroeconomic Trends
5 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
$42 $53 $67 $82 $102
$123 $130 $130 $142 $162
$44
$30 $40
$51 $61
$69
$77 $84 $80
$85
$94
$26
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q12012
$72 $93
$117 $143
Retail
Travel
+26%
+33%
+26%
+28%
+20%
+24% +24%
+13%
$171 $200
+20%
+12%
+6%
+9%
Retail e-Commerce spending is up +17% year over year, already
posting $44 billion in sales through Q1 2012
$214
0%
-5%
$209
U.S. e-Commerce Dollar Sales Growth ($ Billions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
+10%
+6%
$228
+17%
+10%
$70
+29%
+26%
+22%
+19%
+17%
+7%
-2%
+9%
+12% +14%
$256
+14%
+11%
6 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
17%
23% 23%
19%
11%
13%
6% -3% 0% -1% -2%
3%
10%
9% 9%
11% 12% 14%
13%
14% 17%
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Both e-Commerce and retail sales showed solid growth in Q1, with online
nearly 3 times the growth rate of total retail on apples-to-apples basis
Quarterly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
Quarterly Retail & Food Services Sales Growth* vs. YA
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)
*Note: The U.S. Department of Commerce calculation includes total
retail and food service sales, which also includes motor vehicles and
parts dealers.
4% 4% 3% 5%
4% 2%
1%
-8% -10% -9%
-7%
2%
6% 7%
5%
8%
7% 7% 7% 5%
8%
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
When excluding autos, gas and
food/beverage, Q1 2012 retail growth
was up +6% versus 2011
7 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
4.3%
3.7% 4.0%
4.6%
5.1%
4.3% 4.5%
5.3%
5.9%
5.0%
5.3%
6.4% 6.7%
5.9%
6.3%
7.4% 7.3%
6.5% 6.6%
7.6% 7.7%
6.8% 6.9%
7.7% 8.1%
7.1% 7.1%
8.0%
8.6%
7.7% 7.6%
8.9%
9.4%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
As consumers continue to shift their spending to the Internet, the
overall e-Commerce share of spending approaches 10%
*Note: e-Commerce share is shown as a percent of DOC’s Total Retail Sales excluding Food
Service & Drinking, Food & Bev. Stores, Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline Stations and Health &
Personal Care Stores.
e-Commerce Share of Corresponding Consumer Spending* Source: comScore for e-Commerce & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) for Retail
e-C
om
me
rce S
hare
e-Commerce share peaks in
colder seasons (Q4 & Q1)
8 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12
Overall e-Commerce dollar sales have posted double-digit gains in every
quarter since Q4 2010 and are now well ahead of pre-recession levels
Bil
lio
ns
($
)
e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
+13% +6% -3% 0% -1% -2% +3% +10% +9% +9% +11% +12% +14% +13% +14% +17%
% Chg vs. YA
$30.6 $30.3
$38.1
$31.0 $30.2 $29.6
$39.0
$33.9 $32.9 $32.1
$43.4
$38.0 $37.5 $36.3
$49.7
$44.3
Compared to pre-recession levels
(Q1 2008), total retail in Q1 2012 is
up 10%...
e-Commerce is up +42%
9 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Consumer Perceptions of the Economy
10 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Overall consumer sentiment improved for the second straight quarter to best
level in three years, but about half of respondents in April still consider the
economy ‘poor’
Percent of Consumers Who View The Economy as Poor
Q. How would you rate economic conditions today? Source: comScore Surveys
77% 68% 66%
61% 61% 59% 62% 61% 52%
59% 60% 62% 60% 54%
49%
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
11 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Concern over unemployment dropped to 26% in April, as nearly half
of consumers cited rising prices as their top economic issue
Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Issue
46%
40% 42%
50%
42% 44% 45%
36%
27%
37% 38%
31%
26%
28%
32% 32%
29%
33%
30%
29%
42%
54%
37% 37%
43% 48%
15% 13% 13%
9% 10%
13%
9% 7% 7%
12% 12%
10% 11%
8% 8% 8%
7% 9%
8%
10% 11%
7%
8% 9%
10% 11%
Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Unemployment /Job Security
RisingPrices
FinancialMarkets
Real Estate / HomeValues
Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions most concerns you? Source: comScore Surveys
12 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Retailer and Product Category Overview
13 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Most retail categories showed very strong (+15% or better) growth
versus year ago
Q1 2012 e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA by Retail Category Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
Q1 growth rates of 15% or
higher
Product Category
Q1 2012
Growth
vs. YA
Digital Content and Subscriptions Very Strong
Consumer Electronics (x PC Peripherals) Very Strong
Jewelry & Watches Very Strong
Event Tickets Very Strong
Books & Magazines Very Strong
Apparel & Accessories Very Strong
Computers/Peripherals/PDAs Very Strong
Sport & Fitness Very Strong
Home & Garden Very Strong
Video Games, Consoles & Accessories Very Strong
Office Supplies Strong
Consumer Packaged Goods Strong
Flowers, Greetings & Misc. Gifts Strong
Furniture, Appliances & Equipment Strong
Q1 growth rates of 10-14%
14 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Those in the top-20% of households, the heaviest e-Commerce buyers,
accounted for nearly 75% of all e-Commerce dollars spent in Q1
Share of e-Commerce Dollars Spent Per Household (shown by spending quintiles)
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
74%
16%
7% 3% 1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Top 20% Next 20% Next 20% Next 20% Bottom 20%
15 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
About half of online transactions involved free shipping in Q1, the
highest percentage of free shipping seen in a non-Q4 quarter
39% 40% 41% 49% 47% 43% 40%
52% 49%
61% 60% 59% 51% 53% 57% 60%
48% 51%
Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12
% Transactions with Paid Shipping
% Transactions with Free Shipping
Percentage of e-Commerce Transactions with
Free Shipping Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
59% of consumers stated in a recent survey* that if they reached the end of an e-Commerce transaction and
free shipping was not offered, they would cancel their purchase at that retailer
*comScore survey – Apr 2012
16 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Led by Amazon’s +29% growth, many retail sites posted double-digit
gains in unique visitors in Q1 vs. a year ago
Avg. Monthly UVs (MM) on Select Retail Sites in Q1 2012 Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S.
12.9
12.9
13.4
15.7
19.9
24.7
28.2
39.7
48.3
107.4
Macy's Inc.
Hewlett Packard
Sears.com
Ticketmaster
Best Buy Sites
Target Corporation
Netflix.com
Wal-Mart
Apple.com
Amazon Sites +29%
+25%
+18%
+9%
+8%
+12%
+42%
+23%
-21%
+26%
Y/Y Change
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Flash-sale sites continue to grow their audiences, with Woot.com and
Zulily.com leading the pack
Avg. Monthly UVs (000) on Select Flash Sale Sites in Q1 2012 Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S.
Kids clothing site Totsy.com continues to skyrocket in numbers,
reaching 683,000 UVs in Q1 (up 1,051% vs. 2011)
Y/Y Change
454
482
610
683
924
1,026
1,125
1,504
2,242
2,244
DailyCandy
BeyondTheRack.com
MyHabit.com
Totsy.com
OneKingsLane.com
Ideeli.com
Gilt Groupe
HauteLook.com
Zulily.com
Woot.com +93%
+85%
+85%
+46%
+63%
+164%
+1,051%
N/A
-11%
-23%
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Groupon continues to hold the lead in monthly unique visitors among
coupon sites, and grew +19% from 2011
Avg. Monthly UVs (MM) on Select Coupon Sites in Q1 2012 Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S.
+19%
N/A
+18%
-15%
+356%
+36%
N/A
+6%
N/A
+9%
Y/Y Change
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.7
5.5
7.0
7.2
12.5
SmartSource.com
BrandSampleNetwork.com
MyPoints Sites
SavingStar.com
DealsPL.US
CouponAlert.com
LivingSocial
Coupons, Inc.
WhaleShark Media
Groupon
* - WhaleShark Media includes RetailMeNot.com, Deals2Buy.com,
CouponShare.com and CouponsEven.com
*
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Validated Campaign Essentials (vCE)
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Arguably the Most Important Digital Advertising Initiative To Date:
Making Measurement Make Sense (3MS) Mission
Reduce costs of doing business due to
complexity of digital advertising ecosystem
‘Single Tag’ solution to reduce complexity
Improve reporting of ad exposure
Bolster confidence that ads delivered are
actually visible
21 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
X
Branding advertisers on TV are accustomed to audience
guarantees and expect the same in digital
Source: comScore 2011
Cookies Are Not People
Cookie Proliferation
Accuracy of cookie-based digital plan delivery is problematic:
Cookie Deletion
22 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
comScore’s measurement foundation based on validated
impressions measured at person level
in-view
correct geography
brand safety
fraud
target audience
Impressions or
Information on Media Plan Delivery
Accessible on Daily Basis
In past 5 years,
conducted 2,600
Studies for 120
Advertisers
Across 28
Countries
23 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Is In-Flight Media Plan Delivery Adjustment Working?
For Kellogg’s the early results say ABSOLUTELY
Implemented new Digital strategy and analytics in the first half of 2011.
ROI results from our first two Brand Market Mix Models have just come in.
ROI
3X
6x
Year 1 Year 2 1H 2011
ROI 2X
5X
Year 1 Year 2 1H 2011
Brand 1 ROI Brand 2 ROI
24 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
comScore vCE Charter Study
18 campaigns
2 billion impressions
400k sites
Allstate
25 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Charter Findings
In-view ad rates across Top 500 sites
Show Substantial Variation
7%
69%
98%
MINIMUM AVERAGE MAXIMUM
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Large sites scored better than long-tail sites
Percentage of Ads Served In-View
77% 74% 70% 61%
US
US
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Digital Ad Economics:
The Good Guys Aren’t Necessarily Winning
Low correlation of In-View Rates & CPM
An equally as weak correlation was also observed between CPM
and ability to hit a primary demographic target
R²=0.0373
28 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
There is good news for advertisers and publishers
Analogous to TV audience guarantees
Eliminating unseen online inventory supply
results in: More effective / efficient campaigns and less
waste for advertisers
More accurate metrics for market mix models
Better proof of digital ad effectiveness
Increased transparency/accountability
means increased confidence in digital ….
leading to more branding ad spending
moving online
29 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
The Mobile Retail Landscape
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2011: The Rise of Mobile & Tablet Commerce
8%
9%
8%
6% 5%
3% 3%
2%
Q12012
Q42011
Q32011
Q22011
Q12011
Q42010
Q32010
Q22010
Percentage of Total e-Commerce Dollars Spent via Mobile or Tablet Device Source: comScore Mobile Measurements
Spike in percentage of
e-commerce sales via
mobile coincides with
surge in tablet ownership
31 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
+1.1 +1.3 +1.3
+1.9
+3.3
+2.7
+1.3 +1.3
+1.0
+2.1 +2.3 +2.3
+2.9
+2.0
+0.7
+1.8
+2.7
+3.6
+2.9
+2.1 +2.2
+1.6
+3.8
+2.2
+3.1
+2.5
+1.4
+6.5
+3.5 +3.3
+2.1
+0.0
+1.0
+2.0
+3.0
+4.0
+5.0
+6.0
+7.0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
New Smartphone Acquisitions (In Millions)
Total Smartphone Subscriber Base (In Thousands)
Nearly 9 million new smartphone subscribers activated in Q1, taking
the audience well over the 100 million mark
Acquisition Trend for Smartphone Subscriber Base and
Total Smartphone Subscriber Base Source: comScore MobiLens, U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Sep-2009 to Mar-2012
32 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Online Retail E-Payments Credit Cards Auction Sites Classifieds Real EstateListings
BankAccounts
ShoppingGuides
Travel Service
Mar-2011 Mar-2012
Accessing online retail content continues to be a fast-growing activity on
mobile devices, with users up 69 percent versus year ago
+66%
+69% +61%
+59%
+58%
+52%
+50%
+47%
+36%
Content Categories Consumed by Mobile Phone Owners (000) & Growth vs. YA Source: comScore MobiLens, U.S., Mar-2012
33 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Mobile App access dominates Mobile Web access for most leading
pure play online retailers
41,215
27,190
13,351
12,673
6,927
5,471
4,319
3,508
2,423
Amazon
eBay
Netflix
Wal-Mart
Target
Best Buy
Redbox
Barnes & Noble
Etsy
Share of Mobile Time Spent by Retailer
App vs. Mobile Web Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, U.S., March 2012
Selected Leading Retailer Mobile Web Properties
Unique Visitors (000): Mobile Web + App Combined Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, U.S., March 2012
App Mobile Web
86%
82%
99%
18%
16%
5%
61%
95%
27%
14%
18%
1%
82%
84%
95%
39%
5%
73%
34 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Compared to smartphones, tablet ownership is ramping up much faster
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
De
vic
e O
wn
ers
(000
s)
40 Million Consumer Tablet Owners in less than 2 years
Device Ownership – Smartphones vs. Tablets Sources: comScore MobiLens + comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg.
35 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Introducing TabLens: Monthly Media Tablet Tracking
Monthly tracking survey of Media Tablet
ownership and usage
6K quarterly surveys of tablet owners
Many measures parallel to MobiLens for
smartphone comparisons
Includes detailed device characteristics, user
demographics and on-device media
behaviors
Syndicated monthly reporting
Data collection ongoing since January 2012
Media Tablet: Internet connected touch
screen device with 7” + screen
36 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Tablet owners tend to skew to higher incomes: 6 in 10 make $75k+
7%
17% 17% 19%
38%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
<$25k $25k to <$50k $50k to <$75k $75k to <$100k $100k+
% S
ha
re o
f Ta
ble
t O
wn
ers
U.S. Tablet Owners by Household Income Source: comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012
37 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
1 in 5 tablet owners have purchased clothing or accessories from a
retailer, via their tablet device
20%
11%
11%
11%
9%
8%
7%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
Clothing or accessories directly from a retailer
Daily deals
Books
Tickets
Electronics
Gift certificates
Food for delivery or pickup
Groceries for delivery
Flowers
Hotel stays
Airplane tickets
Sports/Fitness
Car rentals
Auto
% of tablet owners
Product Categories Purchased via Tablet Device Sources: comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012
38 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
What’s the impact for retailers? Tablet users are more engaged than
smartphone, and more likely to shop
24%
31%
35%
41%
41%
42%
20%
18%
20%
20%
22%
34%
Made Shopping List
Checked Product Availability
Found Coupons or Deal
Researched Product Features
Compared Product Prices
Found Store Location
Smartphone Owners Tablet Owners
Shopping Activity on Tablet vs. Smartphone Sources: comScore MobiLens, U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012
comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012
39 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
The ‘Showrooming’ Phenomenon
40 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
About 1 in 10 consumers had aided awareness of the term
‘showrooming’
“Showrooming” – verb. Visiting a brick-and-mortar store to see a
product but instead purchasing the product
online. Shoppers may intend from the start to
purchase the product online, or may decide to
purchase online, rather than in-person, after
viewing the item at the store.
12%
16%
8%
% who have heard of'showrooming'
All respondents
Men
Women
41 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
35% of respondents have engaged in ‘showrooming’. Most intended to
buy at brick-and-mortar but changed their mind at the store
Consumer Usage of Showrooming
Q. Based on this definition, have you ever done this activity? (showrooming) Source: comScore Survey – April 2012
Who’s engaging in
showrooming?
35% of all respondents
50% of respondents ages 25-34,
the highest of any age group
48% of tablet owners and 43% of
smartphone owners
43% of Millenials*
* - defined as ages 18-29
…and did they plan it?
6 in 10 ‘showroomers’ say they
originally planned to purchase at the
store, but changed their mind while
there & instead bought online
32% said they went to the store always
intending to buy online
42 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
72%
45%
24%
18%
17%
5%
Price was better online
Planned to buy online but wanted to see item(s)in person before ordering
Item was out of stock at store
Would rather have item(s) shipped to home thantake home with me
Was not convenient to buy in-person at the time
Other
% among those who engaged in 'showrooming'
Price was the biggest driver of ‘showrooming,’ while some wanted to
see item in person before deciding to purchase
Why Consumers Are Engaging in ‘Showrooming’
Q. Which of the following describe why you utilized showrooming? (Please select all that apply) Source: comScore Survey – April 2012
Location, Location, Location Respondents living in urban areas were
nearly twice as likely (26%) to choose
this option than those living in suburban
or rural areas (15% for both)
43 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Consumer Electronics and Apparel were the most popular categories
among consumers who bought via showrooming
Product Categories Most Likely to be Purchased via Showrooming
Q. Which of the following types of item have you bought online after using ‘showrooming?’
(Please select all that apply) Source: comScore Survey – April 2012
63%
43%
29%
22%
22%
16%
10%
Consumer electronics
Apparel, clothing & accessories
Books
Appliances
Toys
Jewelry / watches
Other
% among those who engaged in 'showrooming'
44 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Key Takeaways
45 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Key Takeaways
Quarterly e-Commerce sales have increased by double digits Y/Y for six
straight quarters, including a +17% gain in Q1 2012
– Online growth in Q1 2012 was triple the growth rate for total retail sales
– Channel shift to online appears to be increasing
Overall consumer perception of the economy improved again this quarter, but
49% still think economic conditions are poor
– Unemployment and high prices remain top concerns
In less than two years, tablet ownership has already risen over 40 million
– Tablet owners are more engaged and more likely to spend money online than
smartphone owners
With continued rapid growth of smartphone owners, ‘showrooming’ is proving
to be a legitimate threat to brick-and-mortar stores
– 35% of consumers have engaged in the activity, most often to find lower
prices online
46 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Thank You!
Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 2
business days of today’s webinar.