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State Budget Update
NCSL Symposium for Legislative Leaders
New York City December 17, 2014
Corina Eckl
National Conference of State Legislatures
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Overview
State budgets generally are stable.
Most states expect to meet their revenue estimates.
Spending is on target in most states, though there are exceptions.
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State Year-End Balances FY 1981 to FY 2015 (projected)
Recession Length: 18 months Recession Length: 8 months Recession Length: 8 months Recession Length: 16 months Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years
4.8%
11.9%
8.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
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State Year-End Balances FY 2006 to FY 2015 (projected)
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years
4.8%
All Jurisdictions 8.5%
1.8%
W/O: AK and TX, 5.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
-en
d b
alan
ce a
s a
% o
f st
ate
sp
en
din
g
Fiscal Year
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FY 2015 Performance of Major Tax Categories
12
16
10
8
19
13
9
5
14
15
10
6
Personal Income Tax General Sales & Use Tax Corporate Income Tax
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, fall 2014.
Not Available: Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Wisconsin
Above Estimates
On Target
Below Estimate
Not levied
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Revenue Outlook for FY 2015
Not Available: Missouri, Minnesota, North Carolina and Wisconsin
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, fall 2014.
7
35
5
Unlikely to Meet Forecast
Expected to Meet Forecast
Likely to Exceed Forecast
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Changes in General Fund Spending in FY 2014 and FY 2015
4.0%
3.5%
3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
FY 2014 (estimated) FY 2015 (projected)
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Percent Change in General Fund Appropriations for Major Budget Categories in
FY 2015 (projected)
Medicaid 6.4%
Higher Education
5.9%
K-12 Education
4.4%
Corrections 1.2%
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, summer 2014
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Areas of Spending Over Budget FY 2015
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, fall 2014
14
8
2
9
5 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Medicaid K-12 Education
Higher Education
Corrections Social Services Other
Nu
mb
er
of
Stat
es
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State Fiscal Situation
Near term: Relatively stable.
Longer term: Less stability and predictability.
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What’s on the Horizon?
• Revenue concerns
• Spending pressures
• The next economic downturn?
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Questions?
Contact
[email protected] 303-856-1388
Resources
Fiscal Affairs Homepage: http://www.ncsl.org/fiscal