Societal-Systems Analysis:Societal-Systems Analysis:State Fragility and Political InstabilityState Fragility and Political Instability
Monty G. MarshallMonty G. MarshallCenter for Global PolicyCenter for Global Policy
George Mason UniversityGeorge Mason University
Complex, Adaptive (Eco-)Systems
All ecosystems are exposed to gradual changes…Nature is usually assumed to respond to gradual change in a smooth way.
However…smooth change can be interrupted by sudden drastic switches to a contrasting state. Although diverse events can trigger such shifts, recent studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state.
This suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on [building and] maintaining resilience….Stability domains typically depend on slowly changing variables…These factors may be predicted, monitored, and modified. In contrast, stochastic events that trigger state shifts are usually difficult to predict or control.
Marten Scheffer, Steve Carpenter, Jonathan A. Foley, Carl Folke, and Brian Walker. 2001.
“Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems.” Nature 413 (11 October 2001), pp. 591 and 596.
Precursors to Societal-System Failure Precursors to Societal-System Failure (Context)(Context)
Society: coherence and cohesivenessSociety: coherence and cohesiveness Networks – associational ties and interactionsNetworks – associational ties and interactions Impediments: size (area, population), endowment, Impediments: size (area, population), endowment,
diversity, level of technologiesdiversity, level of technologies System: state formation and performanceSystem: state formation and performance
Management – inclusive, representative, responsive, Management – inclusive, representative, responsive, accountable (sociational vs. instrumental strategies)accountable (sociational vs. instrumental strategies)
Problems: Problems: capturecapture, ignorance, incompetence, , ignorance, incompetence, marginalization, polar marginalization, polar factionalismfactionalism
Prospects: Risk and ResiliencyProspects: Risk and Resiliency
Polar (Macro-)Factionalism:Polar (Macro-)Factionalism:Insights to Political DynamicsInsights to Political Dynamics
Democracy-Predominate SystemDemocracy-Predominate System
The Polity dualistic authority scheme: democratic and autocratic
Political Participation Escalation SequenceRational Choice and the Emotion Quotient
Democratization
Autocratization
The Polity conflict management scheme:sociational or instrumental techniques
Repression
Polar Factionalism: Window on Crisis Dynamics
Performance
State FragilityPolitical Instability
State Failure
Dual Forms: Processual and Transitional Factionalism
Macro-Systemic Resiliency and Intercessions in Political Conflict Dynamics
The Good News!
Policy RecommendationsPolicy Recommendations
Increase resiliencyIncrease resiliency ““Whole of system” approachWhole of system” approach
Accountability guaranteesAccountability guarantees Election assistance and monitorsElection assistance and monitors Engagement and mediationEngagement and mediation
Lessen reliance on instrumental strategiesLessen reliance on instrumental strategies Security Sector Reform; Professionalization of Security Sector Reform; Professionalization of
the militarythe military Acknowledge emotion quotientAcknowledge emotion quotient