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Social media and protest behavior
Sebastián Valenzuela, PhD
Facultad de Comunicaciones UC
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POLITICAL-TECHNOLOGICAL
Two correlated revolutions
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Túnez, diciembre 2010 Egipto, enero 2011
Londres (Tottenham), agosto 2011Madrid, mayo 2011
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Chile, julio 2011
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Usuarios de Facebook en el mundo
http://newsofthemedia.com/2012/01/facebook-hit-1-billion-users/
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54,8%
0 20 40 60 80 100
Malaysia
UK
Sweden
Australia
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Chile
Singapore
United Arab Emirates
Iceland
Proporción de la población con
Facebookhttp://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-
statistics/?orderBy=penetration
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DATUM
IN CHILE, TWO-THIRDS OF URBAN RESIDENTS AGED
18 TO 29 CONNECTS TO FACEBOOK ON A DAILY BASISPeriodismo UDP - Feedback, Encuesta Jóvenes y Participación, 2011
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CAUSES AND EFFECTS
Correlation is not necessarily causation. Yet,…
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ViralMS
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Surveys on Youth and Particioation
2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012
Universe: adults aged 18-29 living in main urban areas (GreaterSantiago, Concepción-Talcahuano and Valparaíso-Viña del Mar)
Sample: multistage area probability sample stratified by geographical region.
Mode: face-to-face interviews
Sample size: 1,000 casos each year
Variables: sociodemographics, media use, attitudes (trust, efficacy, values, grievances, etc.), political and civic participation, protestbehavior
Fieldwork: Feedback S.A.
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USERS
Who uses social media in Chile
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*Comparison of Facebook, YouTube and Twitter users who use these sites onca a week at leastwith users who use these sites less frequently. Differences are statistically significant (p < .05)
SOURCE: Encuesta Jóvenes y Participación
• More political interest
• Less likely to self-censor political opinions
• More political discussion
• (FB only) Less time spent using mainstream news
• (TW only) Higher levels of political self-efficacy
USERS v NONUSERS
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• Similar levels of political trust (very low)
• Similar likelihood of having registered to vote (prior to
automatic registration)
• Less likely to vote in past presidential elections (except
for Twitter users)
USERS v NONUSERS
*Comparison of Facebook, YouTube and Twitter users who use these sites onca a week at leastwith users who use these sites less frequently. Differences are statistically significant (p < .05)
SOURCE: Encuesta Jóvenes y Participación
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www.facebook.com/davidvonblohn
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www.facebook.com/davidvonblohn
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FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS
What do users do onsocial media in Chile
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POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE
Obtain political information
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POLITICAL EXPRESSION
Discuss politics with friends, family, coworkers and peers
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information + discussion + Z =
movilization
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¿What is Z?
• Other causes of protest behavior that need to
be taken into account if we are to estimate the
contribution of social media for protest
• At the individual level (Dalton, Sickle & Weldon, 2009):
– Political and economic grievances
– Human values
– Material and psychological resources
– News and information
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IMPACT
What is the effect of social media in protest behavior in Chile?
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In 2011, frequent use of
Facebook was the third
most important predictor of
participation in street
protests, similar to the
influence of postmaterialist
values and twice more
relevant than political
interest and institutional
trust.
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Mediating variables
Using social media for:
• Information: index of news use on social media
• Politica expression: index of opinion expression on social
media about HidroAysén, student movement and other
political issues
• Joining causes online: index of participation in political, public
or citizen-led causes on social network sites in the last 12
months (HidroAysén, student movement, etc.)
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INTERVENING VARIABLES
Effects of social media are indirect and contingent uponspecific uses and gratifications
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Directions for future research
• The influence of social media in elections and traditional political
participation
• Triangulate survey data with:
– Content analysis of social media
– Social network analysis
– Longitudinal, panel surveys
• Cross-national comparative work
• DEVELOP THEORY!
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THANK YOU!
This presentation can be downloaded at
http:// www.slideshare.com/savalenz
Research work and papers are available at
http://uc-cl.academia.edu/Valenzuela