Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 1
ShadowStats Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439
May 2020 Employment and Unemployment, Recession, FOMC
June 9, 2020
____________
May 2020 Payroll Gain and Unemployment Drop Were Not Credible
Extreme Pandemic-Shutdown Disruptions to Labor Market Conditions, and
Surveying of Same, Heavily Distorted Bureau of Labor Statistics Reporting
Headline Employment and Economic Bottom Bouncing
Likely Are Still a Month or Two Away
Second-Quarter 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product Remains on Track for
Its Deepest Ever Annualized Contraction, Order of Magnitude 50% (-50%)
Third- and Fourth-Quarter GDP Could See Some Bottom Bouncing,
Depending on the Magnitude and Success of Reopening Efforts
Recession Began Fourth-Quarter 2019, per the National Bureau of Economic Research,
Recovery - Regaining the Pre-Recession Peak - Could Take Years, per ShadowStats
FOMC June 10 Press Conference: Fed Funds Likely Will Hold at 0.00% to 0.25%;
Economic Forecasts Probably Will Not Be Overly Optimistic
____________
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 2
____________________
Contents – Flash Commentary (Issue No. 1439)
Overview 3
In May, Another 4.9 Million Unemployed Were Misclassified as “Employed” 3 May Headline Labor Details Were Not Credible, Heavily Disrupted by the Pandemic 3 FOMC Headline Economic Review Looms on Wednesday (June 10th) 3 NBER Declared a Recession in Place 4q2019 (Quarterly), February 2020 (Monthly) 3 New- and Continuing Claims for Unemployment Show the Economy Still In Downturn 3
May 2020 Household and Payroll Employment Surveys5
Headline May U.3 of 13.3% Really Was 16.4% per the Bureau of Labor Statistics 5 2q2020 Household Employment on Track for Annualized 54.5% (-54.5%) Contraction 5 2q2020 Payroll Employment on Track for Annualized Decline of 43.6% (-43.6%) 5 May Payrolls Gained 2.5 Million (1.8 Million Net of Revisions) 5 April Payroll Employment Plunged by a Downwardly Revised 20.7 Million 5 May Labor Statistics Were Heavily Disrupted and Scrambled by the Pandemic Shutdown 5
Graph 1: Headline Monthly Unemployment Rate 1948 to May 2020 ....................................................................................... 6
Graph 2: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Through Week-Ended May 30, 2020 ................................................... 7
Graph 3: Year-to-Year Change in Initial Claims Through Week-Ended May 30, 2020 ............................................................ 7
Table I: Headline, “Corrected” and New-Claims Based Unemployment Estimates ................................................................. 8
Graph 4: Headline Erroneous March, April and May 2020 U.3, U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment .................. 9
Graph 5: BLS- and ShadowStats-Corrected March, April and May U.3, U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate .............................. 9
Graph 6: Headline U.3 Unemployment Rate, Inverted Scale (1994 to May 2020) ................................................................. 10
Graph 7: ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate, Inverted Scale (1994 to May 2020) ................................................... 11
Graph 8: Civilian Employment-Population Ratio (1994 to May 2020) ................................................................................... 11
Graph 9: Participation Rate (1994 to May 2020) ................................................................................................................... 12
May Payroll Employment Rebounded 2.5 Million, Down Year-to-Year by 11.8% (-11.8%) 12 Downwardly Revised April Plunge of 20.7 (20.7) Million Was Worst Ever 12 Payroll Survey Birth-Death Revisions Showed Weaker Near-Term Growth 12
Graph 13: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1939 to May 2020 .................................................................................. 13
Graph 14: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1939 to May 2020, Year-to-Year Change .............................................. 13
Graph 15: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2000 to May 2020 .................................................................................. 14
Graph 16: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2000 to May 2020, Year-to-Year Change .............................................. 14
Graph 17: Birth-Death Model Net Revisions (Lower, Lighter Blue Line) ............................................................................... 15
Graph 18: Birth-Death Model Net Revisions (Lower, Lighter Orange Line) .......................................................................... 15
____________________
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 3
Overview
In May, Another 4.9 Million Unemployed Were Misclassified as “Employed”
May Headline Labor Details Were Not Credible, Heavily Disrupted by the Pandemic
FOMC Headline Economic Review Looms on Wednesday (June 10th)
NBER Declared a Recession in Place 4q2019 (Quarterly), February 2020 (Monthly)
New- and Continuing-Claims for Unemployment Show the Economy Still In Downturn
Formal Recession in Hand Faces a Long Road to Recovery. The National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER) pronounced yesterday, June 8th, that the U.S. economy began its latest recession off a
Fourth-Quarter 2019 peak, timed to a monthly peak of February 2020 (see NBER Recession Statement).
This was an unusual move, where the current economic collapse was triggered by the Coronavirus
Pandemic shutdown of U.S. business and social functioning, an extraordinary extraneous event, not
affected by regular drivers of domestic economic activity. The NBER’s decision was made public one
day in advance of today’s opening of the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee’s
(FOMC) two-day June 2020 meeting.
Where the NBER is the defining authority on timing the U.S. Business Cycle, please note that all graphs
in this Commentary that show recession bars now have a new bar on the far right-hand side of the plot.
That recession bar will end when the new “Recession” hits its “Trough,” which could be in the next
quarter or two. The problem will be the “Recovery,” defined by when the economy recovers its “Pre-
Recession Peak,” again Fourth-Quarter 2019 and February 2020 in the current circumstance. Given the
severe structural damage already done to domestic economic and systemic stability by the Pandemic
Shutdown, full recovery likely will take a number of years, perhaps much longer than the protracted 14-
quarter, 3½ year “Recovery” from the Great Recession (see Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue
No. 1438 and Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437).
Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Still on Track for Massive 50% (-50%) Annualized Contraction. Despite
the unexpected bottom-bouncing in the May 2020 headline labor statistics, based on two months of
reporting, Second-Quarter 2020 Employment, reflecting the BLS-corrected estimates, is on track for a
Second-Quarter 2020 annualized quarterly contraction of 54.5% (-54.5%), which is fully consistent with a
Second-Quarter 2020 annualized Real GDP contraction of about 50% (-50%).
FOMC Not Likely to Alter Rates, in Context of Ongoing Economic Collapse. Tomorrow’s (June
10th) FOMC Statement and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Press Conference, likely will indicate
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 4
unchanged Fed interest rate policy, with the targeted Federal Funds Rate holding at its current 0.00% to
0.25% range, amidst the continued provision of unlimited systemic liquidity—growth in the Money
Supply. The Fed’s economic outlook likely will be bleaker and more cautionary than the Administration
would like to hear.
Despite Some Limited Headline Bottom-Bouncing, Collapsed May Labor Numbers and Economic
Conditions Continued Amidst Explosive, Record Money Supply Growth. Also discussed in Special
Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. 1438, unrestricted money supply growth, in the context of the
Pandemic-induced economic collapse, raises the risk of domestic hyperinflation. With May 2020 Money
Supply showing continued, explosive record annual growth, that circumstance will be reviewed in
pending Flash Update No. 1440, a day or two subsequent to forthcoming FOMC announcements.
The balance of today’s Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 reviews the headline May 2020
Unemployment and Payroll Employment reporting, beginning on Page 5. Unstable reporting of current
Labor Market conditions primarily reflects Pandemic disruptions of and distortions to the employment/
unemployment surveying. Independent of BLS Surveying and based on actual filings, New Claims for
Unemployment Insurance show the economy still in a downturn, albeit one that could be nearing a trough
in activity.
____________________
For the Benefit of Subscribers, New Circumstances, Including Breaking News, Are Highlighted in
the Daily Update. Rapidly shifting headlines, reporting details, intervening events, unusual developments
and schedule changes—all are covered in the Daily Update section of the ShadowStats Home Page. For
example, any unusual developments out of tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting will be highlighted, with an initial
assessment in the Daily Update, within an hour or so of release, as will have been case (within three
hours) of the morning’s release of the May 2020 CPI.
For recent economic and the latest market and systemic assessments, see Special Commentary, Issue No.
1429 (FOMC Panic), Special Commentary, Issue No. 1430 (Systemic Solvency), Flash Commentary,
Issue No. 1433 (Retail Sales Benchmarking), Flash Commentary No. 1434 (1q2000 GDP), Flash
Commentary No. 1436 (Cass Freight Index®), Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437
(Economic Update) and Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. 1438 (Hyperinflation Risks).
Your questions and comments always are welcomed. Please call or e-mail me any time. Leave a
message if your call goes to Voicemail. I shall be back to you.
John Williams (707) 763-5786, [email protected]
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 5
May 2020 Household and Payroll Employment Surveys
Headline May U.3 of 13.3% Really Was 16.4% per the Bureau of Labor Statistics
2q2020 Household Employment on Track for Annualized 54.5% (-54.5%) Contraction
2q2020 Payroll Employment on Track for Annualized Decline of 43.6% (-43.6%)
May Payrolls Gained 2.5 Million (1.8 Million Net of Revisions)
April Payroll Employment Plunged by a Downwardly Revised 20.7 Million
May Labor Statistics Were Heavily Disrupted and Scrambled by the Pandemic Shutdown
The Unexpected Happy Jobs Gain and Unemployment Decline in May 2020 Likely Were Due to
Seriously Flawed, Pandemic-Savaged Household and Payroll Surveying. Today’s Flash
Commentary, Issue No. 1439 focuses on the May labor data as reported Friday, June 5th, by the Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS). Following economic crashes in April, the headline drop in the May
unemployment rate and bounce in May payroll employment broadly were unexpected, running counter to
other numbers and otherwise were not credible. Some questions raised by the Administration’s political
opposition as to possible political manipulation are understandable, but are not realistic. I am directly and
personally familiar with several instances of various direct political manipulations of headline government
data, but I have never known a manipulator to publish up front that (April) 7.5 million or (May) 4.9
million unemployed people were misclassified as “employed” in an unemployment report.
Data credibility issues here are tied to Pandemic-related BLS surveying instabilities and reporting quality.
The flawed headline numbers likely are within the bounds of not being statistically meaningful, but even
that metric is not realistically assessable in these uncharted waters. Consider some of the issues that
disrupted the headline reporting of the May 2020 Payroll and/or the Household Surveys discussed in the
BLS’s Impact of the Coronavirus-Pandemic on The Employment Situation for May 2020.
Massive Pandemic-Driven Disruptions to BLS Household and Payroll Surveying Have Left the
Headline Employment and Payroll Data Not Credible. Distortions in or Changes Made to May:
Unusually low/declining Survey response levels in both Series (companies that have gone out of
business may not answer their phones).
Collection of data was down by 10% to 20% in the month for Construction, for example, where
related jobs surged by 446,000 in the month?
May Household Surveying was down by 15.1%, (-15.1%), deepening from 12.6% (-12.6%) in
April and 9.5% (-9.5%) in May. The bad news is declining along with the level of the surveying?
No BLS surveying visits as previously, only by phone or computer.
Revised Methodologies (Payroll Survey Birth-Death Model was revised negatively).
Related downside revisions to Payroll Reporting.
Revised Seasonal Adjustments (Payroll Survey).
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 6
Counting 4.9 million May “unemployed” as “employed” was the third consecutive month of the
BLS misclassifying a large number of “unemployed,” see Table I and Graphs 1, 4 to 9. Neither
the BLS nor the Census Bureau is able to straighten this out.
Headline details run meaningfully counter to New and Continuing Claims for Unemployment,
despite definitional conflicts, similarly running at variance with private surveys and reporting.
Although Not Particularly Credible, Headline May 2020 Payrolls, and Employment and
Unemployment Both Improved, Now Minimally Off the Historic Levels of Pandemic Deterioration.
In the context of heavily disrupted economic and social and surveying conditions, the May Payroll Survey
showed May Jobs “bottom-bouncing,” jumping by 2.5 million, following a negatively revised record
plunge of 20.7 (-20.7) million jobs [previously 20.5 (-20.5) million] in April.
The Household Survey headline U.3 Unemployment Rate narrowed to 13.26% in May, from 14.71% in
April. In context of 4.9 million May Unemployed being misclassified as “Employed,” versus 7.5 million
so “misclassified” in April, actual May U.3 was about 16.4%, down from 19.5% in April, per the BLS.
Official headline May U.6 was 21.19%, down from 22.78% in April, with the parallel headline
ShadowStats Alternate Measure at 34.0%, down 35.4%, on top of the headline U.3.
Graph 1: Headline Monthly Unemployment Rate 1948 to May 2020
Corrected for the misclassified workers, plus marginally attached workers (including discouraged workers
who have been discouraged for less than a year, and those working part-time because they cannot find a
full-time job), U.6 unemployment was about 24.2% in May, down from 27.5% in April, with the May
ShadowStats Alternate at 36.5%, down from 39.3% in April. Since BLS will use only the official
headline rates going forward, ignoring the misclassifications, official rates and numbers will continue to
be used with the Graph and Table on the Alternate Data Tab - Inflation on the www.ShadowStats.com
website.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Perc
en
t U
ne
mp
loyed
Headline U.S. Unemployment and Corrected May 2020 1948 to May 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]
Official Recession
Current Headline Series (1992 to May 2020)
BLS Corrected Estimate for May 2020 U.3
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 7
Initial Claims for unemployment continue to surge at a slowing pace, as do the ongoing claims. While
this indicates the economy still is declining, the economy likely will bottom out in the next month or so.
Graph 2: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance through Week-Ended May 30, 2020
Graph 3: Year-to-Year Change in Initial Claims through Week-Ended May 30, 2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Th
ou
san
ds
of
Cla
ims
Initial Claims for Unemployment Thousands of New Claims, Weekly to May 30, 2020
Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, U.S. Department of Labor]
-300%
0%
300%
600%
900%
1200%
1500%
1800%
2100%
2400%
2700%
3000%
3300%
3600%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
% C
ha
ng
e
Initial Claims for Unemployment Year-to-Year Percent Change, Weekly to May 30, 2020
Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Department of Labor]
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 8
Table I shows three sets of headline U.3 unemployment rate estimates. The first line shows the headline
U.3 unemployment reporting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has noted in its monthly press
releases covering March, April and May 2020 data, that a large number of unemployed people were
misclassified in headline reporting as “employed.”
Per the BLS, understatement of the unemployed was 1.5 million in March, 7.5 million in April and 4.9
million in May. The BLS’s corrected U-3 estimates are shown in the second row of numbers.
The third row of numbers shows the ShadowStats forecasts of U.3, based on analysis of weekly New and
Continuing Claims for Unemployment Insurance, which were closer to the BLS-Corrected U.3 than the
BLS Headline Reporting. The May ShadowStats U.3 forecast was well above either headline estimate.
Table I: Headline, “Corrected” and New-Claims Based Unemployment Estimates
[Graphs 4 and 5 follow on the next page.]
Measure Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20
Actual
Headline U.3 3.5% 4.4% 14.7% 13.3%
BLS-Corrected U.3 3.5% 5.3% 19.5% 16.4%
Claims-Based Forecast 3.5% 5.0% 21.0% 27.8%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, ShadowStats.com
Month
Headline Unemployment Rate vs. BLS "Corrected"
Versus ShadowsTats Forecast Based on New Claims
Measure Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20
Actual
Headline U.3 3.5% 4.4% 14.7% 13.3%
BLS-Corrected U.3 3.5% 5.3% 19.5% 16.4%
Claims-Based Forecast 3.5% 5.0% 21.0% 27.8%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, ShadowStats.com
Month
Headline Unemployment Rate vs. BLS "Corrected"
Versus ShadowsTats Forecast Based on New Claims
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 9
Graph 4: Headline Erroneous March, April and May 2020 U.3, U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment
Graph 5: BLS- and ShadowStats-Corrected March, April and May U.3, U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Perc
en
t U
ne
mp
loym
en
t
Headline U.S. Unemployment Rates U.3 and U.6 versus the ShadowStats Alternate
1994 to May 2020, Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, Bureau of Labor Statistics]
Official Recession
ShadowStats Alternate
U.6 Unemployment Rate
U.3 Unemployment Rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Perc
en
t U
ne
mp
loym
en
t
BLS-Corrected Headline U.S. Unemployment Rates U.3 and U.6 versus the ShadowStats Alternate
1994 to May 2020, Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, Bureau of Labor Statistics]
Official Recession
ShadowStats Alternate
U.6 Unemployment Rate
U.3 Unemployment Rate
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 10
Shadows Alternate Unemployment Rate Still Explains Labor-Market Stresses in the Employment-
Population Ratio and Participation Rate Better Than the Headline U.3. The recent (February)
historically low U.3 unemployment at 3.2% (see Graph 6), consistent with a heavily hyped economic
“boom,” never was consistent with high levels of employment stress and a headline ShadowStats
Alternate Unemployment over 20%, which were signaling an Economy remaining in serious trouble, pre-
Pandemic, never having recovered fully from the Great Recession.
As the Pandemic crisis pummeled recent economic activity, headline ShadowStats Alternate
Unemployment still has continued to reflect the pattern of mounting labor-market stresses more
consistently than the heavily gimmicked headline U.3 unemployment. Such can be seen, by comparing
Graph 7 of the inverted-scale ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate against Graph 8 of the
Employment-Population Ratio and Graph 9 of the Participation Rate. Again, such is in contrast to Graph
6 of the inverted-scale headline U.3 Unemployment Rate. The suggested underlying reality here remains
that the headline economic boom into early 2020 never fully realized an economic recovery subsequent to
the Great Recession.
Graph 6: Headline U.3 Unemployment Rate, Inverted Scale (1994 to May 2020)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
100.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
U.3
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(S
cale
In
vert
ed
)
U.3 Unemployment Rate (Inverted Scale) To May 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 11
Graph 7: ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate, Inverted Scale (1994 to May 2020)
Graph 8: Civilian Employment-Population Ratio (1994 to May 2020)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
105%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020S
ha
do
wS
tats
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(S
cale
In
vert
ed
)
ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Rate (Inverted Scale) Long-Term Discouraged/Displaced Workers Included (BLS Excluded Since 1994)
To May 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Civ
ilia
n E
mp
loym
en
t-P
op
ula
tio
n R
ati
o
Civilian Employment-Population Ratio To May 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 12
Graph 9: Participation Rate (1994 to May 2020)
May Payroll Employment Rebounded 2.5 Million, Down Year-to-Year by 11.8% (-11.8%)
Downwardly Revised April Plunge of 20.7 (20.7) Million Was Worst Ever
Payroll Survey Birth-Death Revisions Showed Weaker Near-Term Growth
In Context of Negative Payroll-Survey Birth-Death Model Revisions, Pandemic-Induced April
Payroll Plunge of 20.7 (-20.7) Million was Followed by a 2.5 Million Bounce in May. The
downwardly revised April 2020, steepest-ever decline in Payroll Employment activity, was followed by a
2.5 Million jobs bounce, as plotted here in Graphs 13 to 18. While the May bounce was too small to be
visible in the full historical Graphs 13 and 14, it does show in Graphs 15 and 16, and Graphs 17 and 18.
Graphs 17 and 18 also plot the net revisions to the Birth-Death Model, where benchmarked lines are the
lower and lighter colored ones.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Part
icip
ati
on
Rate
Participation Rate [Labor Force as a Percent of Population] To May 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 13
Graph 13: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1939 to May 2020
Graph 14: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1939 to May 2020, Year-to-Year Change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mil
lio
ns
of
Jo
bs
Nonfarm Payrolls
Seasonally-Adjusted Jobs 1939 to May 2020 [ShadowStats, BLS]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Nonfarm Payrolls Unadjusted Year-to-Year Percent Change 1940 to May 2020 [ShadowStats, BLS]
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 14
Graph 15: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2000 to May 2020
Graph 16: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2000 to May 2020, Year-to-Year Change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
124
128
132
136
140
144
148
152
156
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mil
lio
ns
of
Jo
bs
Nonfarm Payrolls Seasonally-Adjusted Jobs 2000 to May 2020 [ShadowStats, BLS]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Nonfarm Payrolls Year-to-Year Percent Change 2000 to May 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]
Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 15
Graph 17: Birth-Death Model Net Revisions (Lower, Lighter Blue Line)
Graph 18: Birth-Death Model Net Revisions (Lower, Lighter Orange Line)
###
128
132
136
140
144
148
152
156
Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May
Mil
lio
ns
of
Jo
bs
Nonfarm Payrolls Revision Seasonally-Adjusted Jobs 2000 to May 2020 [ShadowStats, BLS]
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Nonfarm Payrolls Year-to-Year Percent Change 2000 to May 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]