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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor January 2015
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Westminster Parliament voting
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Q. How would you vote if there were a UK General Election tomorrow?
General Election – Voting Intention
Base: All giving a voting intention = 874; all certain to vote = 650. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th-19th January 2015
SNP 51%
Lab 25%
Cons 13%
Lib Dem 4%
Green 5%
Others 3%
All giving a voting intention
SNP 52%
Lab 24%
Cons 12%
Lib Dem
4%
Others 3%
Green 4%
Certain to vote
SNP lead
+26
SNP lead
+28
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Perceptions of key figures
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36% 42%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing her/his job as First Minister/Deputy First Minister?
Satisfaction with FM/Deputy FM
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know
Net
satisfaction
49%
16%
65%
67%
31%
47%
21%
32%
27%
64%
19%
43%
3%
6%
34%
36%
5%
Nicola Sturgeon
John Swinney
69% 20%
43% 30% 27%
7%
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19th January 2015
11%
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Willie Rennie
42%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as / Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the
Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/?
Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19tth January 2015
Jim Murphy
Ruth Davidson
Patrick Harvie
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know
Net
satisfaction
-8%
-4%
21%
-16%
34%
20%
47%
38%
38%
36%
17%
28%
45%
44%
30%
38%
6%
32
%
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36% 42%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of Labour Party
Satisfaction with UK party leaders
Ed Miliband
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know
Net
satisfaction
-40%
-51%
-45%
65%
67%
47%
32%
27%
64%
43%
3%
6%
34%
5%
David Cameron
Nick Clegg
27% 67% 5%
18% 13% 69%
21% 66% 13%
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19th January 2015
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Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the
Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Satisfaction with party leaders trend
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
Jim Murphy Nick Clegg Ruth DavidsonWillie Rennie Patrick Harvie David CameronEd Milliband Nicola Sturgeon John Swinney
Jim Murphy, 34%
Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
John Swinney, 43%
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Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the
Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
Nick Clegg Ruth Davidson Willie RenniePatrick Harvie David Cameron Ed MilibandNicola Sturgeon Jim Murphy John Swinney
John Swinney,
16%
Jim Murphy, -4%
Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
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Q. As you may know, Jim Murphy was elected as the new leader of the Scottish Labour Party in December 2014. Does his appointment make you more likely or less likely to vote for the Labour Party at the UK General Election in May? Does it make you….
General Election – Impact of new Labour leader
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19th January 2015
7%
13%
48%
9%
19% A lot more likely
A little more likely
Makes no difference
A little less likely
A lot less likely
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents
(adults aged 18+) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 12th-19th January 2015
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless
otherwise stated
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