Download - Scanning the Horizon
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Panel Discussion on Trends influencing Panel Discussion on Trends influencing Boaters, Boats and Boating of the FutureBoaters, Boats and Boating of the Future
CSBC Symposium: Gravenhurst, Ontario (Sept. 25, 2012)CSBC Symposium: Gravenhurst, Ontario (Sept. 25, 2012)
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Panel MembersAnn MacDiarmid, Founding Member of
Safe Quite Lakes, MuskokaSara Anghel, Executive Director/Vice
President Government Relations, National Marine Manufactures Association – Canada
Raymond Zee, President, Ontario Chinese Anglers Association
Peter Garapick, Superintendent, Marine Communications and Traffic Services, Canadian Coast Guard, Central and Arctic Region
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Our Plan for Next 90 minutes
Overview presentation on trends – 10 minutes
Panel member perspectives – 50 minutesDiscussion – 20 minutes Wrap up observations – 10 minutes
Opportunities StrategiesResearch needs
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Factors Shaping the Environment
What is happening now and what is driving the trends that will influence the future?
BoatersBoatsBoating environment
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Current snapshot: Boaters and boats(Pleasure Craft Operator Card holders and Pleasure Craft Licences – 2012: Source Transport
Canada)
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Current snapshot: Recreational Boating Fatalities (Source: Transport Canada)
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Current snapshot: Fatalities by vessel type
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Looking ahead: Canada’s Population Growth
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Looking ahead: Demographic Shifts
Underlying national population growth, many factors reshaping demographic make-up of Canada
Each province and territory, each community has a unique story
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N* - Northern Territories
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Destination
NF PE NS NB QC ON MN SK AB BC YK NT NU
Origin 10.9 3.6 18.5 13.7 27.4 74.4 17.1 24.6 75.3 59.7 1.8 2.3 1.2
NF - 0.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 2.6 0.3 0.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
PE 0.1 - 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
NS 1.4 0.6 - 2.5 1.0 6.0 0.4 0.4 4.2 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.3
NB 0.5 0.4 2.5 - 1.9 3.9 0.3 0.2 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9
QC 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.1 - 17.9 0.8 0.8 4.0 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 30.7
ON 4.3 1.2 6.6 4.1 16.0 - 5.3 4.8 20.6 17.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 81.6
MN 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 5.7 - 2.9 4.9 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 19.3
SK 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 2.9 2.0 - 10.7 3.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 20.7
AB 2.9 0.5 3.7 2.9 4.1 18.5 4.9 11.8 - 26.9 0.4 0.8 0.1 77.5
BC 0.6 0.3 1.7 0.6 2.7 14.5 2.8 3.1 23.1 - 0.6 0.2 0.1 50.3
YK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 - 0.1 0.0 1.4
NT 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 - 0.1 2.8
NU 0.1 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 - 0.0 0.2 - 0.9 Net gain/loss
(1.3) (0.9 ) 0.2
(0.7 )
(3.3 ) 7.2 (2.2 ) 3.9 (2.2 ) (9.4) 0.3 ( 0.5) 0.4
People on the Move: Interprovincial Migration 2009-2010Working Age Male
(Number in 1000s – Source: Stats Canada)
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An Aging Society: Age Pyramids - Canada
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But not everywhere: Age Pyramid – Nunavut Territory
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A Changing Society
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Top Source Countries: 2008-2010
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Age Pyramid: Permanent Residents (2010)
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Permanent residents:By age and source area (2010)
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Provincial perspectives: Growth scenarios for Ontario
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Provincial Perspectives: Growth scenarios for British Columbia
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Ontario and British ColumbiaDiversity and Settlement Trends (2006)
Within and between provinces, ethno-socio-cultural diversity differs substantially
In Vancouver and Toronto visible minorities moving towards 50% of population
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Diversity indicator Vancouver Victoria Kingston Oshawa Toronto Hamilton
Population 2,098
325
148.5
328.1
5,072.1
683.5
Visible Minorities
875
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8.6
33.7
2,174.1
84.3
% of population 42% 10% 6% 10% 43% 12%
Asian
799
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5.9
15.3
1,565.4
50.9
% of minorities 91% 83% 69% 45% 72% 60%
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Back to the National PictureEconomic Realities
Disposable incomeHousing pricesSavings ratesUnemploymentConsumer confidenceFuel pricesAdult children living at home
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Changes in Leisure Activities (US perspectives)
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Mandatory education: More knowledgeable boaters on the water
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Mandatory education: Indicators of compliance
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PCOC Holders: DemographicsSource: TC Marine Safety, Pleasure Craft Operator Competency Program
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Boating Segments in the US: Our Canadian Equivalents?
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What’s happening with boat trends?Range of dimensions:
Who is buying what?Buying up/buying down?New boat sales vs. used boat sales?Boats on the move:
On a trailerAt the cottageOn the roof of the car
Rental market
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What’s happening on the water and in the water?
Weather - climate changeWater levels – up and downEnvironmental changes and shock impacts
(algae, invasive species)How are people communicating?Traffic trends
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Themes
New economic realities Population growth Aging population Immigration
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Themes
People on the move: interprovincial migrations
Growth of urban centresOutdoor recreation and leisure trendsDiversity of boatsChanges in communications and
technology
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And now to: Panel member perspectives Concluding views from panelists and Symposium
participants on: Opportunities Strategies Research needs
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