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Saqib Ehsan, M. Sc.
Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau
Lehrstuhl für Wasserbau undWassermengenwirtschaftProf. Dr.-Ing. Silke Wieprecht
Risk and Planet Earth Conference 2009, Leipzig
Estimation of possible damages due to catastrophic flooding
for long-term disaster mitigation planning
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Contents
- Introduction- 1D-Hydrodynamic modeling with MIKE 11- Development of an improved method for loss
of life (LOL) estimation- Loss of life (LOL) estimation for different
scenarios- Conclusions and Suggestions
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Introduction
- Role of climate change in disaster management
- Possible extreme changes in climate as guidelines for the development of new concepts for disaster mitigation
- Drastic weather change - Heavy rainfall- Catastrophic flooding downstream of the dam- Risk to people and property
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Introduction cont‘d
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Introduction cont‘d
- Jhelum river valley downstream of Mangla dam in Pakistan
- One of largest earth and rock-fill dams in world- Main dam height ~125 m high above riverbed
(by Google earth)
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Introduction cont‘d
Gross storage (original) 7.25 E+9 m3
Net storage (original) 6.59 E+9 m3
Catchment area of reservoir (original)
33,360 km2
Water surface area of reservoir (original)(at maximum conservation level)
253 km2
Power generation 1,000 MW
Crest length of main dam 2,561 m
Design capacity of main spillway 28,583 m3/s
Design capacity of emergency spillway
6,452 m3/s
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
1D-Hydrodynamic modeling with MIKE 11
Chenab River
Upstream Trimmu Barrrage
Jhelum Bridges
Rasul BarrageMalikwal
BridgeKhushab Bridge
Confluence Point
Suketar Nallah
Bandar KasJabba Kas
Kahan River
Mangla dam
Bunha River
-Project Reach: about 329km
-Different Hydraulic
structures
-Five tributaries between
Mangla and Rasul Barrage;
No gauges are existing there
-1D-modeling for unsteady
flow conditions
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
1D-Hydrodynamic modeling with MIKE 11cont‘d
Maximum Discharges
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000
Downstream chainage (m)
Max
. Q (
m3 /s)
40000 m3/s (withbridges)
40000 m3/s (withoutbridges)
50000 m3/s (withbridges)
50000 m3/s (withoutbridges)
MDF (61977 m3/s: withbridges)
MDF (61977 m3/s:without bridges)
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
1D-Hydrodynamic modeling with MIKE 11cont‘d
Rasul Barrage
High Flooding Scenarios (maximum water level)
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
0 30000 60000 90000 120000 150000 180000 210000 240000 270000 300000
Downstream chainage (m)
Max
. wat
er le
vel (
m)
40000 m3/s (with bridges)
50000 m3/s (with bridges)
MDF (61977 m3/s: with bridges)
40000 m3/s (without bridges)
50000 m3/s (without bridges)
MDF (61977 m3/s: without bridges)
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
1D-Hydrodynamic Modeling with MIKE 11cont’d
Dam break Flood Routing (maximum discharges)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
240000
260000
280000
300000
320000
0 30000 60000 90000 120000 150000 180000 210000 240000 270000 300000
Downstream chainage (m)
Max
. Q (
m3 /s
)
Case1 (with bridges)
Case2 (with bridges)
Case3 (with bridges)
Case1 (without bridges)
Case2 (without bridges)
Case3 (without bridges)
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Rasul Barrage
1D-Hydrodynamic Modeling with MIKE 11cont’d
Dam break Flood Routing (maximum water level)
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
0 30000 60000 90000 120000 150000 180000 210000 240000 270000 300000
Downstream chainage (m)
Max
. wat
er le
vel (
m)
Case1 (with bridges)
Case2 (with bridges)
Case3 (with bridges)
Case1 (without bridges)
Case2 (without bridges)
Case3 (without bridges)
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Development an improved LOL estimation method
LOLi = PARi x FATBASE x Fsv x Fage x Fmt x Fst x Fh x Fwar x Fev
LOLi = loss of life at a particular location ´´i`` downstream of the dam
PARi = Population at risk at a particular location ´´i`` downstream of the dam
FATBASE = Base Fatality rate of 0.15 (worst case of medium severity) (Graham, 1999), assuming an average value of 1.0 for all other factors with average conditions.
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Fsv = Flood Severity factor
High Severity very likely 1.0Medium Severity unlikely 0.3Low Severity very unlikely 0.1
Fage = Age risk factor
A (<10yrs+ (>=65yrs)),B (10-15)yrs and C (15-64)yrs
Fage = 1.25 *A% +1.1* B%+ 0.8* C% (general form) Fmt = Material risk factor
Fmt = 1 * X % + 1.5 * Y % (general form)
Where, X= % of other type of houses, Y= % very low strength houses
Development an improved LOL estimation method
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Fst = Storey risk factor Fst = 1 (for high severity and all house types)
Fst = 1- S % (for medium and low severity)
Where, S= % of more storey houses
Fh = Health risk factor; 3% disabled people Fh = 1 *H % + 1.25*D % (general form)
Where, H= % of PAR with avg. health, D= % of disabled PAR
Development an improved LOL estimation method
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Fwar = Warning factor (Graham,1999)
Warning Flood Severity understanding Fwar
No No 1 Some (15-60min) Vague/unclear 0.7 Adequate (>60min) Precise/clear 0.3
Fev = Ease of evacuation factor
Warning Ease of evacuation Fev
No No 1 Some (15-60min) Some 0.7 Adequate(>60min) Good 0.3
Development an improved LOL estimation method
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Loss of Life estimation
PAR downstream of Mangla dam (98-Census data)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
Downstream chainage (m)
PAR
(No.
of
Peo
ple
at r
isk)
PAR
Total PAR : 1178038
Urban PAR : 37%
Rural PAR : 63%
Estimated PAR is related to the highest flood event in the past
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Loss of Life estimation
Estimated Total Loss of Life downstream of Mangla dam (98-Census data)
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
1
2
3
4
5
Sele
cted
Sce
nari
os
Total Loss of Life
LOL (MDF 61977 m3/s:without bridges)
LOL (MDF 61977 m3/s:with bridges)
LOL (50000 m3/s:without bridges)
LOL (50000 m3/s: withbridges)
1- Warning Initiation 30min after Failure 2- Warning Initiation 15min after Failure
3- Warning Initiation at Failure
4- Warning Initiation 1hr before Failure
5- Warning Initiation 2hrs before Failure
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
% Total Loss of Life for Different Failure Cases
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000
Max. Discharge (m3/s)
% T
otal
LOL
(%
dea
d pe
ople
)
%LOL (with bridges)
%LOL (without bridges)
Worst Case for Warning Initiation:
30 minutes after Failure
Loss of Life estimation
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Cumulative Loss of Life due to Dam Failure
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
0 25000 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 175000 200000 225000 250000 275000 300000
Downstream chainage (m)
Cum
ulat
ive LOL
Failure Case1
Failure Case2
Failure Case3
% Cum. LOL up to 50Km: about 80% of Total LOL
% Cum. LOL up to 100Km: about 90% of Total LOL
Total LOLWorst Case for Warning
Initiation: 30 minutes after Failure
% Cum. LOL up to 25Km: about 68% of Total LOL
Loss of Life estimation
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Conclusions and Suggestions
- Severe climate change can cause extreme flooding downstream of a
dam
- Estimation of possible damages is an important part of any dam
safety study
- Loss of life increases with the delay in warning initiation with respect
to dam failure
- For all dam failure cases, maximum LOL (~80%) occurs in first
50 km downstream of Mangla dam
- % total LOL for the worst case of Mangla dam failure is close to 4%
which seems to be very high
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Conclusions and Suggestions
- LOL results clearly show the need of improvement in existing risk Reduction measures in order to reduce possible LOL due to Mangla dam failure
- More research is required to estimate
- ease of evacuation - risks posed by age groups - very low strength houses and more storey houses - Realistic estimation of possible LOL due to natural hazards like floods helps in long-term disaster mitigation planning
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Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
QUESTIONS??
www.iws.uni-stuttgart.de
Lehrstuhl für Wasserbau und Wassermengenwirtschaft
Institut für Wasserbau, Universität Stuttgart