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CITY OF NEW YORK PARKS, NATURAL RESOURCES GROUP
CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK, THE GRADUATE CENTER
November 15, 2010
Salt Marsh Submergence and Restoration in New York City and
Implications of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise
ELLEN KRACAUER HARTIG
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Idlewild Park Salt Marshes
Photo by Mike Feller, DPR-NRG
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Jamaica Bay
Marshlands Conservancy
Long Island
ConnecticutNew York
New Jersey
New York City
Submerged Wetland Study Locations in New York City, Long Island, and Westchester
Shinnecock Bay
Stony Brook Harbor
Oyster Bay
Manhasset Bay
Pralls Island
Pelham Bay
Udall’s Cove
Alley Pond
Long Island SoundShelter Island
Hackensack
Meadowlands Fire Island
Atlantic Ocean
Long Island
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Yellow Bar Hassock, 2000, photo by Vivien Gornitz
Submerging marshes at Jamaica Bay
(near JFK airport)
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AA
A
B BB
CCC
Comparisons along Hutchinson River, Bx11951 199911974
Pelham Bay Park, near Coop City, the Bronx
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Comparisons along Hutchinson River, Bx
16.27 Acres 6.33 AcresPelham Bay Park, near Coop City, 61% of 1974 Acreage, Av = 1.9% per yr loss
1974 2006
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A
B
Comparisons along East River, Bx
A
B
A
B
1974 20061951
Pelham Bay Park, near Split Rock Golf Course, the Bronx
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Pelham Bay Park Salt Marshes
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Past Marsh Loss at Pelham Bay Park
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Projected Marsh Loss at Pelham Bay Park
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Comparisons at Udall’s Cove Park, Queens, NY1951 1974 1999 2005
A AA A
BB B
C
B
CCC
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Udall’s Cove Park, Land-use Change and Impacts 1974 to 2006
2006 1974
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Comparisons at Lemon Creek Park
B
A
CD
2006
B
A
CD
1974
B
A
CD
1951
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Comparisons at Lemon Creek Park,
1924 to 2006
19241951197419992006
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Vegetated Salt Marsh Loss, NYC and Vicinity1974 1999 Change since 1974
County/Park Hectares %Loss Loss Yr -1
BRONX (Pelham Bay Park)
Hutchinson River Marshes 20.7 11.4 44.9 1.8 %
Long Island Sound Marshes 31.1 20.7 33.3 1.3 %
QUEENS
Alley Pond Park 7.1 6.9 2.9 0.1 %
Jamaica Bay Islands 799.0 495.0 38.0 1.5 %
Udall’s Cove Park 8.2 5.1 38.1 1.5 %
STATEN ISLAND
Lemon Creek 4.9 3.5 (2006) 28.6 0.9 %
Saw Mill Creek (restored) 27.5 25.3 8.0 0.3 %
Pralls Island 5.6 2.4 (2006) 57.1 1.8 %
WESTCHESTER
Marshlands Conservancy 14.0 9.7 31.0 1.2 %Sources: NRG 2010; Mushacke 2006, Hartig 2002, 2004
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Mechanisms of ErosionEnlarged Biogenic Holes
Marsh RetreatUndercutting
In–situ Slumping of Peat
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Stressors
• Dredge and fill activity• Sediment loss • Changes in nutrient loading• Herbivory• Wave action (boats)• Sea Level Rise • Other
Brant
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Source: NOAA, 2003 www.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov
Historic Mean Sea Level Trends
3.90 mm/yr
2.77 mm/yr
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Relative Sea-Level Rise, Metropolitan East Coast (MEC)
Source: http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml
Station SLR (mm/yr) YearsNew London, CT 2.25 1938-1999Bridgeport, CT 2.56 1964-1999Willets Point, NY 2.35 1931-1999Port Jefferson, NY 2.44 1957-1999Montauk, NY 2.78 1947-1999New York City, NY 2.77 1856-1999Sandy Hook, NJ 3.90 1932-1999
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Name/CountyMarsh Zone SLR
Accretion (mm/yr) Source
Alley Pond (Queens, NY) high 2.4 3.5 Cochran et al. (1998)
Caumsett Park (LI, NY) high 2.3 4.1 Cochran et al. (1998)
Fresh Pond (Queens, NY) 2.4 4.3Clark and Patterson (1985)
Goose Creek (Bronx, NY) high 2.4 2.4 Cochran et al. (1998)
Hunter Island (Bronx, NY) high 2.4 1.1 Cochran et al. (1998)
Jamaica Bay (Queens, NY) 2.7 2.8 Kolker (2005)
Jamaica Bay (Queens, NY) 2.7 4.4 Kolker (2005)
Jamaica Bay (Queens, NY) high 2.7 5.0 Zeppie (1977)
Jamaica Bay (Queens, NY) low 2.7 8.0 Zeppie (1977)
Source: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/downloads/section2_1.pdf
Mean SLR Compared to Surface Accretion Rates
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Sea Level Rise Projections for NYC, The Battery, (2000-2009) in cm)
Decade/GCMs 2020s 2050s 2080sIPCC-adapted Methods
Lower range 3.6 12.7 23.6Middle range 9.4 24.6 45.2Upper range 14.0 34.5 65.0
Rahmstorf/Horton Method + Local SubsidenceLower range 9.4 25.4 46.2Middle range 12.4 33.3 62.5Upper range 15.7 42.2 80.3
CRI Rapid Ice-Melt Sea Level RiseLower range 10 43 94Upper range 25 76 150
Note: Based on 3 scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) and 7 GCMs Source: Vivien Gornitz and Radley Horton, Columbia University, NASA/GISS, NPCC 2010
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Marshes—Drown or Survive?SLR compared to Accretion Rates (in cm)
Decade 2020s 2050s 2080sAccretion rate L M H L M H L M HIPCC-adapted Methods for the NYC RegionLower range 0 6 12 -3 12 27 -8 16 40Middle range -5 1 7 -15 0 15 -29 -5 19Upper range -10 -4 2 -25 -10 6 -49 -25 -1
Rahmstorf/Horton Method + Local SubsidenceLower range -5 1 7 -15 0 15 -30 -6 18Middle range -8 -2 4 -23 -8 7 -47 -23 2Upper range -12 -6 0 -32 -17 -2 -64 -40 -16
CRI Rapid Ice-Melt Sea Level RiseLower range -6 0 6 -33 -18 -3 -78 -54 -30Upper range -21 -15 -9 -66 -51 -36 -134 -110 -86
L = Low (0.2 cm/yr), M = Medium(0.5 cm/yr), and H= High (0.8 cm/yr) accretion rates.
Simple model that accounts for accretion but neglects subsurface processes.
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Activities
SETsSediment NourishmentSediment CoresHistoric loss analysisLandscape level Impact analysisNitrogen PathwaysRestoration Acquisition
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Elevation Change
Surface processes– Sediment deposition– Sediment erosion
Subsurface processes– Root growth– Decomposition– Pore water flux– Compaction
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• Jamaica Bay Watershed Protection Plan• Wetland Transfer Task Force• PlaNYC 2030• Wetland Regulatory Gap Analysis• New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC)
INITIATIVES
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Research Needs• SET monitoring• Evaluation of different causes• LIDAR images• Bathymetric data• Permanent tide gauges• Projections of future sea level rise• Determine areas for inland migration
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ANTHROPOGENIC ROLEDredging / filling, boat induced waves, hard shoreline structures, sewage outfall; stormwater runoff
Synergistic Interactions Leading to Marsh Loss
Sediment deficiency,
erosion, slumping, tidal pool
enlargement
Salt marsh to mud flat conversion
DIMINISHING SALT
MARSHES
Water quality changes &
nutrient enrichment
CLIMATE CHANGESea-level rise
ECOLOGICAL CHANGESSea lettuce and ribbed
mussel increase, herbivory, (e.g. brant grazing)