Download - ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Forecast
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ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation, and
Forecast
• FY2002-2003: ONR– AOSN Monterey Bay field experiment
• FY 2004: CIMT-$100K– 2003-2004 hindcast experiment
• FY 2004-2006: ONR– MB06/ASAP Monterey Bay field
experiment• FY 2006: CIMT-$100K
– Transition the ROMS nowcast and forecast toward real-time operational demonstration
• FY 2006: CIMT-$25.4K (with Leslie Rosenfeld)– Real-time Monterey Bay wind product
PI: Yi Chao
JPL ROMS Group:• Ocean:
– John Farrara– Gene Li– Adam Wang– Carrie Zhang
• IT/Database/Web:– Peggy Li– Quoc Vu
Thanks to many CIMT investigators
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CIMT needs a modeling component, because?
• Model can be used to
– Fill the data gap: ocean will be always under-sampled, over 900 profiles/day were collected during August 2003 AOSN experiment; 100 moorings are sufficient for MB observing system
• Model can be used to
– Forecast into the future: observation can only tell what happens today
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Two complementary modeling approaches
• Process-oriented modeling: simple/easy understood or theoretical framework
• Modeling for application users (e.g., weather forecast,
fishery management)
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1.5-km5-km15-km
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Data Assimilation:3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) method
J = 0.5 (x-xf)T B-1 (x-xf) + 0.5 (h x-y)T R-1 (h x-y)
Time
Aug.1 Aug.4Aug.3Aug.2
Initialcondition
24-hour forecast
Aug.5
Xa = xf + xf
Xa
xf
3-day forecast
y: observationx: model
24-hour assimilation cycle
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CIMT ROMS Reanalysis (Retrospective Analysis) and Real-Time Forecast Plan
clim.spinup
Aug.03AOSN(ONR)
Sep.04 Aug.06ASAP(ONR)
TIME
1-yearReanalysis2003-2004
(CIMT)
Multi-yearReanalysis2003-2006
Real-timeforecast
CIMT data: ship CTD & underway, M0, Sea Lion profilesOther data: satellite, M1/2, AUVs, ships
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An Interactive Web Portal to Manage and Visualize Sea Lion Data
http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov
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http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov
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No Data Assimilation
Assimilation of AOSN data
BiasMean RMS194
Sea Lionprofiles
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A New ROMS Capability: Predicting Sea Level
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Data and Model Products
• Real-time Monterey Bay wind demonstration– CIMT web site
• ROMS 3D nowcast and forecast demonstration in the near future (2007 maybe)– Temperature, salinity– Surface current, complementary to HF radar but filling in
data gaps and extending offshore– Sea level
• Future ROMS capabilities, collaboration with other CIMT PIs– Coupled physical-biological ecosystem processes, in
collaboration with Chavez and Chai– Other CIMT data types