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RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES TO FINANCING THE UNIVERSAL DEVELOPMENT AGENDA Angela Wilkinson, Strategic Foresight Councellor
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OECD to develop a strategic roadmap to support governments’ efforts to implement and monitor the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
– MCM 2015
Beyond inspiration to perspiration! Multi-dimensional, multi-scale and multi-stakeholder transition management
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The Forward Looking Bigger Picture
Adapted from ‘Star, mountain, chessboard, self’ image © Hardin Tibbs 1999
‘The Star’—
Our aspirations
‘The Mountain’—
What we hope to achieve
‘The Chessboard’—
Issues and challenges we
are likely to face
Vision and Strategic Direction
Strategic Objectives
• BHAG—Big Hairy Audacious Goals:
• concrete, specific and challenging
• measurable
Shifting policy contexts
• Scenario planning: what might happen rather
than will or should
• Engaging TUNA
Identity & Core Capabilities
• Self-knowledge of strengths and
weaknesses: capabilities
• Values & Preferences
• Pivotal past experiences
‘The Self’—
Our values and attributes as
a strategic player
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Translating vision to action Example - WBCSD Vision 2050
4
Global companies plus wider stakeholder engagement Combining visioning and bio-capacity footprint modelling Delivering: • 9 key pathways • 40 must-haves • 350 milestones • Cross-sector solution
space
Ref: Wilkinson and Mangalagiu : Learning with futures to realise progress towards sustainability: The WBCSD Vision 2050 Initiative, Futures, 2011
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2010
A world on track to sustainable, inclusive wellbeing by 2050
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a model
‘The Present’
baseline projection
‘The Future’
Conditional projection
“wicked” situation
multiple pathways
alternative futures
Plausible, alternative scenarios
Adapted from source: Oxford Scenarios Programme
Mental models
6
Scenario planning is not the same as forecasting
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Where does finance fit into this bigger picture?
Example: MCM 2015 Global Scenarios
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Scenario Name
“Quick Fixes” “Multipolar” “City Power”
Global Leadership
Markets and empowered citizens
States and non-geographical regions
Cities, corporations and global coalitions
New investment opportunities
Digital economy Crowd funding
More state-directed investment Alternative financial systems
More cooperative investment
Investment challenges
Winner-takes all outcomes Unlocking private wealth for public goods
Unlocking social norms that inhibit investment in innovation
Unlocking collaboration for sustainable infrastructures
New risks and opportunities
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PCSD can help policy makers use scenario planning to:
1) Translate the vision into future-proofed policy action
2) Identify new risks and opportunities to financing the SDG by look at the bigger picture
3) Consider policy trade-offs and synergies from new and different future perspectives
Closing reflections