Download - Risk pooling-Fall 2014_Group 10.ppt
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RISK POOLING
GAME
Supply Chain Management Fall 2014
GROUP 10Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet ( D10301811)
F!n"y S!#ut! (M10$0180%)
(M10301$0&)
(M1030100')
(M10$100)
N*+ie"! Di,ti!,!i (M103018$0)
Professor Shuo-Yan Chou
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-UESTIONS .ANAL/SIS
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-ue,ti*n 1
Compare e+enue, #*itand i2!teet!een
the "entrali#ed system and the de"entrali#ed
system !ith default parameter setting
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Siu!ti*n Re,ut
Neut! De!n4 5*e!ti*n6 De!n4 Me!n7 06 !i!n9e7 10
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E:#!n!ti*n (1;$)
From the simulation, the 9ent!i
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E:#!n!ti*n ($;$)
From the result, !e "an "al"ulate the profit*re)enue ratio
of the "entrali#ed system is 1&>&'@ and the de"entrali#ed
system 1>$@$
%n this "ase, 5ent!i
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-ue,ti*n $
+e"uting the nines"enarios$
hat the relationship of .rders, demands, holding
"ost, profit and fill-rate/
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?*4ing 5*,t
.n igh arian"e, Centrali#ed System has a lo!er holding
"ost$ (he "entrali#ed system uses aggregates demand, so it has a
lo!er safety sto" !hi"h !ill has a lo!er holding "ost !hen
the )arian"e is high$
.n 3o! arian"e, e"entrali#ed System has a lo!er holding
"ost$
(he de"entrali#ed system supplies demand dire"tly one y oneto the retailers, so it !ill has a lo!er holding "ost !hen the
)arian"e is lo!$
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P*it (';')
5""ording to profit margin of the nine s"enarios,
1$ (he 9ent!i
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Fi R!te ($;$)
.)erall, the 9ent!i
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-ue,ti*n 3
hat is the definition of fill-rate/
hy is the fill-rate o)er 100: sometimes/
hat is the relationship et!een fill-rate and profit/
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Bh!t i, The Deiniti*n * Fi!teC
Deiniti*n7
(he numer of ser)i"e le)el et!een 2 parties$
5 measure of shipping performan"e epressed as a
per"entage of the total order$
i)ided ;
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Bhy i, The Fi!te O+e 100@ S*etie,C
>sually the optimal fillrate is 100: !here it is also "alled
perfe"t order$
hen the fillrate o)er 100:?
0
Demand 1 Demand 2 Demand 3
100 -50 100
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Bhy i, The Fi!te O+e 100@ S*etie,C
%t is "an happen !hen a demand has high "oeffi"ient of
)ariation$
%n the real !orld, usually the demand distriution !ill "hange
into other distriution &Poisson, eiull, @ohnson, et"$' or the
demand !ill automati"ally e"ome 0$
hen the demand is elo! 0 &- demand' in real !orld?
Customer do not order anything in that period
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Bh!t i, The Re!ti*n,hi# eteen Fi!te
!n4 P*itC
alue of .rder 3ines Shipped on the %nitial .rder *
(otal alue of the .rder &A400*AB00 80@'
%n)entory -D in)entory sto" -D redu"e profit
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Bhen the ?*4ing 5*,t i, !,*
9*n,i4ee4
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-ue,ti*n '
Play the game !hile you "an "hange the *4e u!ntity
and !*unt 4i,ti=uti*n>
Can you get any insights or impro)ement for the t!o
systems/
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The 9h!nge * *4e u!ntity !n4 !*unt
4i,ti=uti*n>
-ue,ti*n '
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?*4ing 5*,t !n4 P*it
olding "ost in 5ent!i
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Fi!te
(here is n*t u9h 4ieen9e in Fi !te +!ue =eteen
5ent!i
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?* !=*ut hen the De!n4 h!, St*ng
P*,iti+e 5*e!ti*nC
Cost
Holding Cost 1.5
Revenue per Item 20
Cost per Item 10
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A, the Re+enue #e Ite g*e, u# *
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A, the Re+enue #e Ite g*e, u# *
5*,t #e Ite g*e, 4*n
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Cost
Holding Cost 1.5
Revenue per Item 200
Cost per Item 10
-0.903%
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S*uti*n
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S*uti*n
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Cost
Holding Cost 1.5
Revenue per Item 200
Cost per Item 10
-0.29%
De9ent!i
Correlation
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5*n9u,i*n,1$ From the 1stGuestion, !e "an "on"lude that the "entrali#ed and the de"entrali#ed
system has a ,ii! e+enue #*it . i!te for neutral "orrelation and
medium )arian"e
2$ From the 2ndGuestion, !e "an "on"lude that
(he "entrali#ed ha)e a =ette !gin #*it th!n 4e9ent!i
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5*n9u,i*n,6$ From the 6rdGuestion, !e "an "on"lude that Fi !te h!, ! #*,iti+e 9*e!ti*n
ith #*it in the ,!e ,y,te> +)en a slight in"rement of the fill rate "an gi)e
a signifi"ant in"rement profit$
4$ From the 4th Guestion, !e "an "on"lude that Centrali#ed system sho! etter
result than e"entrali#ed and it7s ale to generate higher profit in neutral
"orrelation
B$ hen the "orrelation turn e"ome positi)e "orrelation, e"entrali#ed system
"an perform etter than Centrali#ed System depend on the e)enue per %tem,
Cost per %tem, and olding Cost
5ON5LUSIONS
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