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Rip Currents--Killer Currents Jim Lushine
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Outline of Presentation•Rip Current Fatalities
•Data
•Forecasting
•Verification
•NWS Products
•Future Work
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Rip Current Fatalities
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Southeast Florida Rip Current Fatalities
0
5
10
15
20
25
1979-2003
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Florida Rip Current Fatalities
0
10
20
30
40
1989-2003
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Florida Weather-related Fatalities1989-2003
278
134
63
24
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Rip Current Lightning Tornado Hurricane
Dea
ths
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United States Rip Current Fatalities
50
41 43
0
10
20
30
40
50
Fatalities
2001 2002 2003
Years
Storm Data
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Weather-related Formation Factors1. Local Gradient Wind2. Swell
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Non-Weather-related Formation Factors•Time of Low Tide*
•Persistence•Tidal Currents
•Deep Water Currents (e.g. Gulf Stream)
•Seismological Factors
•*SE Florida Coast
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Data
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Florida Marine Observations
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Four Factors in Forecasting Rip Currents
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Wind Factor
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Gradient Wind vs Rip Current Fatalities along SE Florida Coast
05
101520253035404550
% of Time
11 12 13 14 15 16
Average Wind Speed
northeasteast northeasteasteast southeastsoutheastsouth southeast
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Gradient Wind vs Non-Rip Current Fatalities along SE
Florida Coast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% of TIme
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Avg Wind Speed
NNEESESSWWNW
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Sea Breeze Effect
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Convective Wind Initiation
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Swell Factor
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Swell Height* vs Rip Currents
• <2 Feet---No effect on rip currents
• 2-7 Feet---Mdt Risk of rip currents
• >7 Feet---High Risk of rip currents
• *Swell Period also important
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Tidal Factor
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Faster Rip Current near Low Tide
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Tidal Variation of Fatalities
02468
10121416
No. of Fatalities
Hito1
1to2
2to3
3to4
4to5
5toLo
Loto1
1to2
2to3
3to4
4to5
5toHi
Tidal Times
1979-1988
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Weaker Swimmers Can go Farther Offshore?
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PersistenceFactor
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Days Between Initiation of Rip Currents and the First Fatality
6
19
31
37 3943
48
05
101520253035404550
Cumulative No. of
Drownings
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Days
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Gradient Winds vs Residual Rip Current Fatalities in SE Florida
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% of Time
7 8 9 10
Avg Wind Speed
NNEESESSWWNW
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Beach Patrol Rescue Reports
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Daily Rip Current Risk1=Low2=Moderate3=High
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Verification
0.92
0.570.62
0.58
0.370.32
0
0.10.2
0.30.4
0.50.6
0.70.8
0.91
POD FAR CSI
Rip CurrentSevere Weather
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NWS Rip Current-Related Products
• Surf Forecast
• Hazardous Weather Outlook
• Marine Weather Statement
• Zone Forecasts (Headlines)
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Decision to Include in ZFP
• Weekday vs Weekend/Holiday
• Improving Weather from yesterday
• Change in surf conditions from yesterday
• Low Tide in the afternoon
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Future Work
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Tidal Variation of Fatalities= Hourly Rip Current Risk?
02468
101214
Fatalities
Hito1
1to2
2to3
3to4
4to5
5toLo
Loto1
1to2
2to3
3to4
4to5
5toHi
Tidal Times
1994-2003
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Beach Geomorphology
• Renourishment
• Type of Sand
• Persistence of Rip Channels
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Upcoming Rip Current Events
• Technical Workshop (April 6-7, 2004)
• NWS Media Event (May 24, 2004)
• FACVB meeting (June 10, 2004)
• COMET Module (Summer 2004)
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Florida’s Uniform Flag Warning System
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The End