Reliability Must Run (RMR) WorkshopJanuary 15, 2004
Bob SmithArizona Public Service Co.
Arizona Corporation Commissionand
Central Arizona Transmission System (CATS)
2
Outline of Presentation
2004 RMR Study ProcessDescription of network and
constraintSIL/MLSC determinationRMR - demand, energy and durationEconomic/environmental impact of
transmission constraintObservations
3
2004 RMR Study Process
Transmission Provider Coordination- Basic Case Development- July 1, 2003 meeting - Draft Study Plan
4
2004 RMR Study Process (cont.)
Process open to all stakeholders- July 23, 2003 CATS Meeting
Study Plan approved 2005, 2008, 2012 Selected for detailed
analysis Study APS/SRP combined Phoenix Area
- August 22, 2003 CATS Meeting Propose RMR load and Generation Definition
- September 30, 2003 CATS Meeting Preliminary Results Model Welton Mohawk in Yuma
5
APS 2005 Yuma Area Network
Hassayampa/Palo Verde
N.Gila 500/69 kV
WAPAGila 161/69 kV
Imperial Valley/San Diego
Pilot Knob
Yucca 161/69 kV
APS Yuma AreaNetwork
YCA
IID CT#21IID-Steam #1APS-CT 1-4
BLK1/8/04
CriticalOutage
Mittry
LimitingElement
LimitingElement
LagunaTap
6
APS 2008 Yuma Area Network
Hassayampa/PaloVerde
N.Gila 500/69 kV
WAPAGila 161/69 kV
Imperial Valley/San Diego
Pilot Knob
Yucca 161/69 kV
APS Yuma AreaNetwork
YCA
IID CT#21IID-Steam #1APS-CT 1-4
BLK1/8/04
CriticalOutage
LimitingElement
LagunaTap
7
APS 2012 Yuma Area Network
Hassayampa/Palo Verde
N.Gila 500/69 kV
WAPAGila 161/
69 kV
Imperial Valley/San Diego
Pilot Knob
Yucca 161/69 kV
APS Yuma AreaNetwork
YCA
IID CT#21IID-Steam #1APS-CT 1-4
BLK1/8/04
GilaBend
TS8CriticalOutage
Mittry
LimitingElement
LagunaTap
Quechan
8
APS 2005 Yuma Nomogram
Yuma Area 2005
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
Generation
Load
Forecasted load: 344 MW
Hassayampa-N.Gila 500 kV OutageOverloads Yucca 161/69 XFMRs
12/8/03BLK
N.Gila-Gila 69 kV OutageOverloads N.Gila-Mittry 69 kV
Yucca-Laguna T 69 kV OutageOverloads 10th Strt-32nd Strt 69 kV
9
APS 2008 Yuma Nomogram
Yuma Area 2008
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
Generation
Lo
ad
Forecasted load: 380 MW
12/15/03BLK
Yucca-Laguna T 69 kV OutageOverloads Riverside-10th Str 69 kV
Hassayampa-N.Gila 500 kV OutageOverloads Yucca 161/69 XFMRs
W/ Welton-Mohaw k Gen
W/O Welton-Mohaw k Gen
10
APS 2012 Yuma Nomogram
Yuma Area 2012
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
Generation
Lo
ad
Gila Bend-TS8 230 kV OutageMittry-Quechan 69 kV
Forecasted load: 425 MW
12/9/03BLK
W/ Welton-Mohaw k Gen
W/O Welton-Mohaw k Gen
Gila Bend-TS8 230 kV OutageYucca-Laguna T 69 kV
11
2005 Yuma Load Duration and RMR Condition
YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2005)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
SIL = 265 MW
YUMA LOAD
PEAK = 344 MW
79 MW
714 HOURS
20 GWH
Total Yuma Energy = 1,517 GWH
12
2008 Yuma Load Duration and RMR Condition
YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2008)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
SIL = 292 MW
YUMA LOAD
PEAK = 380 MW
88 MW
676 HOURS
21 GWH
Total Yuma Energy = 1,663 GWH
13
2012 Yuma Load Duration and RMR Condition
YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2012)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
SIL = 410 MW
YUMA LOAD
PEAK = 425 MW
12 HOURS LOAD EXCEEDS SIL
15 MW
Total Yuma Energy = 1,869 GWH
14
RMR Economic Analysis
GE MAPS production-cost simulatorEntire WECC modeledHourly least cost dispatch with
transmission constraintsAnnual cost to serve area load determinedStudy repeated ignoring local import limitDifference is the RMR costEnvironmental impact determined for
each generator using emission rates
15
2005 APS Yuma Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 1497
GWh, 98%
RMR Energy "within economic
dispatch", 12 GWh, 1%
RMR Energy "outside of economic
dispatch", 8 GWh, 1%
APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,517 GWh
$995,000 incremental cost
16
2008 APS Yuma Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 1642
GWh, 99%
RMR Energy "within economic
dispatch", 21 GWh, 1%
RMR Energy "outside of economic
dispatch", 0 GWh, 0%
APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,663 GWh
$0.0 incremental cost
17
2012 APS Yuma Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 1869
GWh, 100%
RMR Energy "within economic
dispatch", 0 GWh, 0%
RMR Energy "outside of economic
dispatch", 0 GWh, 0%
APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,869 GWh
$0.0 incremental cost
18
Environmental Impact of Transmission Constraint for Yuma
Pollutant Avg. Reduction(ton/year)
Reduction of YumaArea Emissions(% of total emission fromall source)
VOC 1.0 Unavailable
NOx 20 Unavailable
CO 5 Unavailable
Pm10 1.0 0.001
19
Yuma RMR Observations
APS load is expected to exceed import capability for 714 hours in 2005, 676 hours in 2008, and 12 hours in 2012.
Estimated cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is approximately $1.0 million in 2005 and $0 in 2008 and 2012.
2nd North Gila transformer in 2005 and new 230kV line in 2012 effectively manage RMR conditions.
Removing the transmission constraint in 2005 would reduce PM10 emissions by 0.001%.
20
2005 Phoenix Area Network
Westwing500KV
230KV
Surprise
Lone Peak Cactus Ocotillo
230KV
345KV
Pinnacle Peak
500KV
Rudd Kyrene500KV
PaloVerde/
Hassayampa
GilaRiver
Reach
500KV
230KV
Deer Valley
Brandow (2)Papago Butte
Rogers (2)
69Kv (3)
69Kv
Gavilan Peak
(3)
Agua Fria
DeerValley
69Kv (2)
Raceway
(3)
(2)
230KV
Orme
Buckey e
TS4
Liberty
230KV
69Kv
Knox
500KV
(2)230KV
Browning
500KV
230KVSilverKing
Jojoba
(2)
(2)
Apache
BonneyBrookTap
AsarcoTap
Hay den
115KV
115KV
SpookHill
Coolidge
230KV
PhoenixArea Load
Phoenix AreaLoad (2005)
Critical Outage Critical Element
- SIL Jojoba-Kyrene Voltage collapse inSoutheast part of Valley
- MLSC Jojoba-Kyrene Orme-Rudd
Orme
CriticalElement
Critical Outage
21
2008 Phoenix Area Network
Westwing500KV
230KV
Surprise
Lone Peak Cactus Ocotillo
230KV
345KV
Pinnacle Peak
500KV
Rudd
Kyrene
500KV
PaloVerde/
Hassayampa
GilaRiver
Reach
500KV
230KV
Deer Valley
Brandow (2)Papago Butte
Rogers (2)
69Kv (3)
69Kv
Gavilan Peak
(3)
Agua Fria
DeerValley
69Kv (2)
Raceway
(4)
(2)
230KV
Buckey e
TS4
Liberty
230KV69Kv
Knox
500KV(2)
230KV
Browning
500KV
230KVSilverKing
Jojoba
(2)
(2)
Apache
BonneyBrookTap
AsarcoTap
Hay den
115KV
115KV
SpookHill
Coolidge
230KV
PhoenixArea Load
Phoenix AreaLoad (2008)
500KV 230KV
TS5
500KV(2)
230KV
South EastValley
Critical Outage Critical Element
- SIL Jojoba-Kyrene Voltage collapse inSoutheast part of Valley
- MLSC Glendale-Agua Fria West Phoenix-Lincoln St.
WestPhoenix
LincolnSt.
Agua Fria
Glendale
Critical Outage
Critical Outage
CriticalElement
22
2012 Phoenix Area Network
Westwing500KV
230KV
Surprise
Lone Peak Cactus Ocotillo
230KV
345KV
Pinnacle Peak
500KV
Rudd
Kyrene
500KV
PaloVerde/
Hassayampa
GilaRiver
Reach
500KV
230KV
Deer Valley
Brandow (2)Papago Butte
Rogers (2)
69Kv (3)
69Kv
Gavilan Peak
(3)
Agua Fria
DeerValley
69Kv (2)
Raceway
(4)
(2)
230KV
Buckey e
TS4
Liberty
230KV69Kv
Knox
500KV(2)
230KV
Browning
500KV
230KVSilverKing
Jojoba
(2)
(2)
Apache
BonneyBrookTap
AsarcoTap
Hay den
115KV
115KV
SpookHill
Coolidge
230KV
PhoenixArea Load
Phoenix AreaLoad (2012)
500KV 230KV
TS5
500KV(2)
230KV
South EastValley
TS6
69Kv
Av ery
Critical Outage Critical Element
- SIL Palo Verde-Rudd Westwing-Surprise
- MLSC Palo Verde-Rudd Westwing-Surprise
Critical Outage
CriticalElement
23
2005 System Import LimitValley Nomogram
SIL
2005 Load Serving Capability
8617
1010010100
11764
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
VALLEY GENERATION (MW)
VA
LL
EY
LO
AD
(M
W)
2005 LSC (VAR)
2005 LSC (THERMAL)
Safe Operating Area
24
2008 System Import LimitValley Nomogram
2008 Load Serving Capability
10494
1220012200
13952
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
VALLEY GENERATION (MW)
VA
LL
EY
LO
AD
(M
W)
2008 LSC (VAR)
2008 LSC (THERMAL)
Safe Operating Area
25
2012 System Import LimitValley Nomogram
2012 Load Serving Capability
11103
14663
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
VALLEY GENERATION (MW)
VA
LL
EY
LO
AD
(M
W)
2012 LSC (THERMAL)
Safe Operating Area
26
2005 APS Phoenix Load Duration and RMR Condition
PHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2005)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
SIL = 8,617 MW
VALLEY LOAD
PEAK = 11,141 MW
2,524 MW
678 HOURS
550 GWH
Total Valley Energy = 47,833 GWH
27
2008 APS Phoenix Load Duration and RMR Condition
PHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2008)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
SIL = 10,511 MW
VALLEY LOAD
PEAK = 12,425 MW
1,914 MW
338 HOURS
222 GWH
Total Valley Energy = 54,310 GWH
28
2012 APS Phoenix Load Duration and RMR Condition
PHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2012)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
SIL = 11,103 MW
VALLEY LOAD
PEAK = 14,406 MW
3,303 MW
758 HOURS
805 GWH
Total Valley Energy = 63,037 GWH
29
RMR Economic Analysis
GE MAPS production-cost simulatorEntire WECC modeledHourly least cost dispatch with
transmission constraintsAnnual cost to serve area load determinedStudy repeated ignoring local import limitDifference is the RMR costEnvironmental impact determined for
each generator using emission rates
30
2005 Phoenix Area Energy
RMR Energy "outside of economic
dispatch", 6 GWh, 0.0%
Load Requiring no RMR, 47283
GWh, 98.9%
RMR Energy "within
economic dispatch", 544
GWh, 1.1%
Phoenix Area Total Load = 47,833 GWh
$0.0 incremental cost
31
2008 Phoenix Area Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 54088
GWh, 100%
RMR Energy "within economic
dispatch", 222 GWh, 0%
RMR Energy "outside of economic
dispatch", 0 GWh, 0%
Phoenix Area Total Load = 54,310 GWh
$0.0 incremental cost
32
2012 Phoenix Area Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 62233
GWh, 99%
RMR Energy "outside of economic
dispatch", 1 GWh, 0%
RMR Energy "within economic
dispatch", 804 GWh, 1%
Phoenix Area Total Load = 63,037 GWh
$84,000 incremental cost
33
Phoenix Area Reserves
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2005 2008 2012
Reserves(MW) 850
1735
346
809865 865
99% Reliability Reserve Requirement
34
Environmental Impact of Transmission Constraint for Phoenix Area
Pollutant Avg. Reduction(ton/year)
Reduction ofPhoenix AreaEmissions(% of total emission fromall source)
VOC 0.0 0.000
NOx 4.0 0.007
CO 1.0 0.000
Pm10 0.0 0.000
35
Phoenix RMR Observations APS load is expected to exceed import capability for
678 hours in 2005, 338 hours in 2008, and 758 hours in 2012. RMR energy represents approximately 1% of the total energy.
Estimated cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is less than $100,000 in each year.
Such small annual RMR costs do not justify Construction costs to relieve RMR.
The projected reserves in 2012 are 346 MW compared to a 99% reliability reserve requirement of 865 MW.
Removing the transmission constraint would reduce emissions in the Phoenix Area by 0.007% or less.
36
Phoenix RMR Observations(Continued)
Benefits of local generation- Increase reliability
• Local voltage support• Contingency response• Operating flexibility
- Reduced losses- Lower transmission investment